TCFA - 瓦努阿图附近热带扰动07F(17U/90P) - 14.0S 168.8E

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90P INVEST 260121 0000 12.3S 146.6E SHEM 15 0

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Tropical Low 17U
Tropical low expected to form in the Coral Sea this week.

• A tropical low (17U) is expected to form in the northern Coral Sea tonight or on Thursday.
• It is expected to slowly move southwards initially, while remaining offshore. Later in the weekend or early next week, 17U may move further east and away from the coast.
• There is a Low chance of 17U developing into a tropical cyclone from Friday while it is located off the northeast Queensland coast.
• Guidance suggests a second low may form to the east of Cape York Peninsula during the weekend. Chances are that this low may merge with 17U early next week. If it remains as a separate system, then a separate forecast will be issued for this system.
• Residents of far north Queensland should monitor forecasts for updates.
  

Last updated
an hour ago, 08:20 am UTC

Tropical lows

Today 11:00 pm

Tomorrow 11:00 am

Tomorrow 11:00 pm

Fri 23  Jan 11:00 am

Fri 23  Jan 11:00 pm

Sat 24  Jan 11:00 am

Sat 24  Jan 11:00 pm

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Mon 26  Jan 11:00 pm

Tue 27  Jan 11:00 am

Tue 27  Jan 11:00 pm

Wed 28  Jan 11:00 am

Wed 28  Jan 11:00 pm

Tropical Low 17U

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

5 (Low)

5 (Low)

5 (Low)

5 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 09Z分析T1.0

TPPS11 PGTW 210923
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90P (NE OF CAIRNS)
B. 21/0850Z
C. 13.94S
D. 149.05E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.0
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 0.30 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. BOTH MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   LINDGREN

Ragasa

ABPW10 PGTW 211000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/211000Z-220600ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201951ZJAN2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210751ZJAN2026//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 20JAN26 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (NOKAEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 133.0E, APPROXIMATELY 544 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
YAP, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 202100) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
6.3N 146.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 145.1E, APPROXIMATELY 332 NM
SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BROAD AND DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION
ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20
TO 25 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C). ECENS IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OUT OF THE ENSEMBLE MODELS, HOWEVER, THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE MUCH MORE HESITANT ON THE CONSOLIDATION OF
92W. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 92W TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 21JAN26 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 19.1S 161.1E, APPROXIMATELY 334 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF
NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT
40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPS31 PGTW 210900) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.6S
148.2E, APPROXIMATELY 192 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WILLIS ISLAND.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15
TO 20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE ON 90P TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT GRADUALLY
CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 12Z分析维持T1.0

TPPS11 PGTW 211218
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90P (NE OF CAIRNS)
B. 21/1130Z
C. 14.27S
D. 149.70E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析维持T1.0

TPPS11 PGTW 211520
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90P (NE OF CAIRNS)
B. 21/1430Z
C. 14.92S
D. 150.63E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析升至T1.5

TPPS11 PGTW 211830
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90P (NE OF CAIRNS)
B. 21/1730Z
C. 15.02S
D. 150.43E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF
1.5. MET YIELDS 1.0. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   TIMMERMAN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z分析维持T1.5

TPPS11 PGTW 212054
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90P (NE OF CAIRNS)
B. 21/2030Z
C. 15.15S
D. 150.46E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF
1.5. MET YIELDS 1.5. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   TIMMERMAN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 00Z分析维持T1.5

TPPS11 PGTW 220001
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90P (NE OF CAIRNS)
B. 21/2330Z
C. 16.06S
D. 150.98E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF
1.5. MET YIELDS 1.5. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   TIMMERMAN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 03Z分析维持T1.5

TPPS11 PGTW 220251
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90P (NE OF CAIRNS)
B. 22/0230Z
C. 16.62S
D. 151.38E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/18HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF
1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER