TCFA - 菲律宾以东93W - 12.0N 125.9E - JMA:TD[W]

大水台6

93W INVEST 251128 1200 8.9N 150.1E WPAC 15 1009

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 06Z系集不少成员支持发展，GFS系集也有所反应

Enceladus

未来发展路径并不是很清晰

Enceladus

TXPQ25 KNES 010609
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93W)
B. 01/0530Z
C. 13.3N
D. 140.6E
E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-9
F. T1.0/1.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. THE MET IS 1.5 BASED
ON THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT TREND WITHIN THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS
1.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT SINCE THE BANDING FEATURE WAS NOT CLEAR
CUT AND A PATTERN ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL

...COVERDALE=

Enceladus

ECENS 0100Z

Ragasa

ABPW10 PGTW 011800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/011800Z-020600ZDEC2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011351ZDEC2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 01DEC25 1200Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (KOTO) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 14.6N 111.5E, APPROXIMATELY 203 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG,
VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 011500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.4N
138.1E, APPROXIMATELY 172 NM NORTH OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS),
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 93W WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA.1.B.(1).//
NNNN

tcfa_gw

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 12N 136E WNW SLOWLY.

Enceladus

TPPN12 PGTW 020557
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (NW OF YAP)
B. 02/0530Z
C. XX.XX
D. XXX.XX
E. N/A/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT BE
FOUND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

BALMER

Enceladus

As of 8:00 AM today, 02 December 2025, Tropical Depression "KOTO" (formerly VERBENA) is still being monitored OUTSIDE the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
Meanwhile, the Low Pressure Area (LPA 12a) is also being monitored OUTSIDE PAR and has a “HIGH” potential of developing into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.
All are advised to monitor updates from DOST-PAGASA.

Enceladus

ECENS 06Z
到最后都快变成不支持发展了