西澳北部近海四级强热带气旋“纳蕾勒”(34U/27P.Narelle) - 横穿澳大利亚北部再度出海发展，平行海岸西南行进 - BoM:120KT JTWC:125KT

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：葛畅、刘涛  签发：董林  2026 年 03 月 21 日 10 时
“纳蕾勒”将在澳大利亚北部沿海再次登陆

时  间: 3月21日08时（北京时,下同）

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “纳蕾勒”，NARELLE

中心位置: 南纬13.0度，东经139.1度

强度等级: 二级热带气旋

最大风力: 11级，30米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压:  983百帕

参考位置:   距离澳大利亚纽兰拜东偏南大约260 公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“纳蕾勒”由17级以上减弱至11级

预报结论: 预计，“纳蕾勒”将以每小时20公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动，强度先增强再减弱，将于22日凌晨在澳大利亚北部沿海再次登陆（25-35米/秒，10-12级，相当于我国的强热带风暴级或台风级）。受其影响，21日白天至夜间，澳大利亚北部沿海及海域、卡奔塔利亚湾将有8-10级大风，“纳蕾勒”中心经过的附近海域或地区风力可达10-12级，阵风13-14级。今天下午起，麦克阿瑟港至纽兰拜之间的沿海及邻近内陆地区或将出现强降雨，并可能引发暴洪；周日期间，降雨范围将进一步向内陆扩展。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年3月21日08时00分）

ygsj24

IDD20150
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Birany Birany to north of
Numbulwar, including Groote Eylandt are requested to USE the Standard Emergency
Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 29
Issued at 1:05 pm ACST on Saturday 21 March 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Narelle is moving westwards through the Gulf of Carpentaria,
and will impact the eastern Top End later today.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Nhulunbuy to Port McArthur, including Borroloola, Numbulwar,
Alyangula, and Gapuwiyak. Extending west to include Ramingining, Bulman, and
Ngukurr.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 12:30 pm ACST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 45 kilometres of 12.9 degrees South 138.4 degrees East,
estimated to be 190 kilometres east southeast of Nhulunbuy and 240 kilometres
east northeast of Alyangula.
Movement: west at 20 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle is over the warm waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria.
Narelle is forecast to strengthen as it moves westwards towards the eastern Top
End.

Narelle is forecast to cross the eastern Top End coast overnight tonight or
early Sunday morning, most likely between Birany Birany and Numbulwar. Narelle
will then weaken as it moves inland across the Top End on Sunday and Monday.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 185 km/h are forecast to develop in
coastal areas between about Birany Birany and Numbulwar, including Groote
Eylandt, this evening and overnight into Sunday as Narelle approaches from the
east.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 160 km/h are forecast to develop between Birany
Birany and Numbulwar, including Groote Eylandt from this afternoon, and
possibly extending to be between Nhulunbuy to Nathan River overnight tonight or
Sunday morning depending on the movement of Narelle.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are forecast to develop in coastal
and adjacent inland areas between Gapuwiyak and Port McArthur, including
Nhulunbuy and Borroloola, from this afternoon and continue overnight into
Sunday. These GALES may extend west to Ramingining, Bulman, and Ngukurr on
Sunday.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is likely to develop for
coastal and adjacent inland areas over the eastern Top End between Port
McArthur and Nhulunbuy from this afternoon, then extending further inland
during Sunday. LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL leading to DANGEROUS AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING is likely over the eastern Top End between
Numbulwar and Birany Birany, including Groote Eylandt, during this afternoon
and evening

Tides will be higher than normal between Nhulunbuy and Port McArthur today and
Sunday. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas. A
potentially DANGEROUS STORM TIDE between Cape Shield and Port Roper is possible
as the cyclone centre crosses the coast with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS
FLOODING.

Recommended Action:
NTES advises:

People between Birany Birany to north of Numbulwar, including Groote Eylandt
should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place.

People in remaining areas between Nhulunbuy and Port McArthur, including
Borroloola, Numbulwar, Alyangula, and Gapuwiyak, should immediately commence or
continue preparations, especially securing boats and property.

People further west including Ramingining, Bulman, and Ngukurr, should take
precautions and listen to the next advice.

- Outside property, including boats, playground equipment, chairs and tables
should be secured using available daylight hours.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Secure NT website at
http://www.securent.nt.gov.au

- For emergency assistance call the Northern Territory Emergency Service (NTES)
on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees
on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 4:30 pm ACST Saturday 21 March.

This advice is available on telephone at 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (ACST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	1 pm March 21	2	12.9S	138.4E	45
+6hr	7 pm March 21	3	13.2S	137.5E	60
+12hr	1 am March 22	3	13.3S	136.5E	65
+18hr	7 am March 22	2	13.5S	135.4E	60
+24hr	1 pm March 22	1	13.7S	134.2E	60
+36hr	1 am March 23	tropical low	14.0S	131.5E	75
+48hr	1 pm March 23	tropical low	14.3S	129.0E	80
+60hr	1 am March 24	tropical low	14.7S	126.5E	95
+72hr	1 pm March 24	tropical low	15.2S	124.2E	115

ygsj24

IDD20150
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Birany Birany to north of
Numbulwar, including Groote Eylandt are requested to USE the Standard Emergency
Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 30
Issued at 4:18 pm ACST on Saturday 21 March 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle beginning to impact the eastern Top End.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Nhulunbuy to Nathan River, including Numbulwar, Alyangula, and
Gapuwiyak. Extending west to include Ramingining, Bulman, and Ngukurr.

Watch zone: King George River Mouth to the WA/NT Border.

Cancelled zone: Port McArthur, including Borroloola.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 3:30 pm ACST:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 120 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 165 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 13.0 degrees South 137.8 degrees East,
estimated to be 140 kilometres southeast of Nhulunbuy and 175 kilometres east
northeast of Alyangula.
Movement: west at 21 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is over the warm waters of the Gulf of
Carpentaria. Narelle is beginning to impact the eastern Top End coast.

Narelle is forecast to cross the eastern Top End coast overnight tonight or
early Sunday morning, most likely between Birany Birany and Numbulwar. Narelle
will then weaken as it moves inland across the Top End on Sunday and Monday.

During Monday, a weakened Narelle is expected to move over the Joseph Bonaparte
Gulf and gales are forecast to redevelop to the north of the centre. There is a
Moderate chance that Narelle redevelops into a tropical cyclone while in the
Joseph Bonaparte Gulf.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 185 km/h are forecast to develop in
coastal areas between about Birany Birany and Numbulwar, including Groote
Eylandt, this evening and overnight into Sunday as Narelle approaches from the
east.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 160 km/h are forecast to develop between Birany
Birany and Numbulwar, including Groote Eylandt from late afternoon, and
possibly extending to be between Nhulunbuy to Nathan River overnight tonight or
Sunday morning depending on the movement of Narelle.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h developing in coastal and adjacent
inland areas between Gapuwiyak and Nathan River, including Nhulunbuy, and are
forecast to continue overnight into Sunday. These GALES may extend west to
Ramingining, Bulman, and Ngukurr on Sunday.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is developing about coastal and
adjacent inland areas over the eastern Top End between Nhulunbuy and Nathan
River, and is forecast to extend further inland during Sunday. LOCALLY INTENSE
RAINFALL leading to DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING is likely
over the eastern Top End between Birany Birany and Numbulwar, including Groote
Eylandt, during this afternoon and evening

Tides will be higher than normal between Nhulunbuy and Nathan River today and
Sunday. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas. A
potentially DANGEROUS STORM TIDE between Cape Shield and Port Roper is possible
as the cyclone centre crosses the coast with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS
FLOODING.

Western Australia:

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 90 km/h] are possible between King George
River Mouth and the WA/NT border.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible for the north
Kimberley during Monday.

Recommended Action:
NTES advises:

People between Gapuwiyak and Numbulwar, including Groote Eylandt and Nhulunbuy
should remain inside until the cyclone has passed and listen to the next advice.

People in remaining areas between Nhulunbuy and Nathan River, including
Borroloola, Numbulwar, Alyangula, and Gapuwiyak, should immediately commence or
continue preparations, especially securing boats and property.

People further west including Ramingining, Bulman, and Ngukurr, should take
precautions and listen to the next advice.

- Outside property, including boats, playground equipment, chairs and tables
should be secured using available daylight hours.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Secure NT website at
http://www.securent.nt.gov.au

- For emergency assistance call the Northern Territory Emergency Service (NTES)
on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees
on buildings or roof damage).

DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts
and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 7:30 pm ACST Saturday 21 March.

This advice is available on telephone at 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (ACST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	4 pm March 21	3	13.0S	137.8E	35
+6hr	10 pm March 21	3	13.2S	137.0E	55
+12hr	4 am March 22	2	13.4S	136.0E	65
+18hr	10 am March 22	1	13.6S	134.8E	65
+24hr	4 pm March 22	tropical low	13.8S	133.5E	65
+36hr	4 am March 23	tropical low	14.0S	130.9E	85
+48hr	4 pm March 23	tropical low	14.5S	128.5E	85
+60hr	4 am March 24	tropical low	14.8S	125.8E	100
+72hr	4 pm March 24	tropical low	15.5S	123.7E	120

1. IDD20020
   
2. TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
   
3. Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
   
4. at: 0659 UTC 21/03/2026
   
5. Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle
   
6. Identifier: 34U
   
7. Data At: 0600 UTC
   
8. Latitude: 13.0S
   
9. Longitude: 137.8E
   
10. Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
    
11. Movement Towards: west (275 deg)
    
12. Speed of Movement: 11 knots (21 km/h)
    
13. Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots (120 km/h)
    
14. Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots (165 km/h)
    
15. Central Pressure: 978 hPa
    
16. Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
    
17. Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
    
18. Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
    
19. Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
    
20. Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
    
21. Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
    
22. Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
    
23. Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
    
24. Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm (45 km)
    
25. Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km)
    
26. Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/18HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
    
27. Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
    
28. Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm (370 km)
    
29. FORECAST DATA
    
30. Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
    
31. (UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
    
32. +06:  21/1200: 13.2S 137.0E:     030 (055):  070  (130):  973
    
33. +12:  21/1800: 13.4S 136.0E:     035 (065):  055  (100):  985
    
34. +18:  22/0000: 13.6S 134.8E:     035 (065):  040  (075):  994
    
35. +24:  22/0600: 13.8S 133.5E:     035 (065):  030  (055): 1000
    
36. +36:  22/1800: 14.0S 130.9E:     045 (085):  030  (055): 1000
    
37. +48:  23/0600: 14.5S 128.5E:     045 (085):  035  (065):  997
    
38. +60:  23/1800: 14.8S 125.8E:     055 (100):  030  (055): 1000
    
39. +72:  24/0600: 15.5S 123.7E:     065 (120):  030  (055): 1000
    
40. +96:  25/0600: 16.6S 119.4E:     090 (165):  050  (095):  988
    
41. +120: 26/0600: 17.6S 115.1E:     115 (210):  070  (130):  974
    
42. REMARKS:
    
43. Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is starting to approach the eastern Northern
    
44. Territory.
    
45. 
    
46. The broad centre of Narelle is now evident on the Gove radar, and in addition
    
47. to visible satellite imagery has been used to locate Narelle's centre with good
    
48. confidence. The centre is broad, and this broad centre was also seen in SAR
    
49. imagery from this morning at 2015 UTC 20 March. In spite of the presence of
    
50. vertical wind shear (CIMSS assessed 19 kn ESE at 0000 UTC), in recent hours
    
51. Narelle has shown improved curvature.  
    
52. 
    
53. Dvorak analysis: a curved bant pattern with a wrap of 0.8-1.0 yields a DT of
    
54. 3.5. No MET or PT as not yet over water for long enough. FT/CI = 3.5. Objective
    
55. aids at 0530 UTC (1-min means): ADT 59 kn, AiDT 65 kn, DPRINT 52 kn, DMINT
    
56. (0411 UTC) 58 kn, MW sounders (0410 UTC) 74 kn, and SATCON  72 kn. Current
    
57. intensity is set at 65 kn, based on objective aids, and influenced by earlier
    
58. SAR at 2015 UTC and Gove Dopplar Radar (adjusted to account for scan
    
59. elevation), these are both in line with a 65 kn system.
    
60. 
    
61. Narelle has begun to impact the eastern Northern Territory coast and the
    
62. environment remains generally favourable due to warm SSTs, high moisture, and
    
63. moderate wind shear, until increased land interactions lead to weakening.  A
    
64. small amount of intensification is forecast in the next 6 hours, prior to
    
65. landfall on the eastern Northern Territory coast tonight or early Sunday
    
66. morning.
    
67. 
    
68. A strong mid-level ridge extending across Australia into the Coral Sea will
    
69. remain the dominant steering mechanism for Narelle well into next week. There
    
70. is high confidence in a westward forecast track across northern Australia.
    
71. Following landfall over the Northern Territory overnight tonight, Narelle will
    
72. then move across the Top End and off the Kimberley coast next week, where
    
73. redevelopment into a tropical cyclone is again likely.
    
74. 
    
75. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
    
76. ==
    
77. The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 21/1330 UTC.

复制代码

ygsj24

WTPS31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 014   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210600Z --- NEAR 13.0S 137.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 137.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 13.4S 135.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 13.8S 133.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 14.3S 130.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 14.8S 127.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 16.1S 123.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 17.8S 118.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 19.7S 115.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 137.3E.
21MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
405 NM EAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 210600Z IS
973 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.//
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 210900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING
   
4. NR 014//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 13.0S 137.8E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 405 NM EAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 11 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WITH A FORMATIVE EYE FEATURE AND EXTREMELY
    
19. COLD CLOUD TOPS WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THE
    
20. SYMMETRY OF THE VORTEX HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, WITH
    
21. CONVECTION NOW WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE MORE
    
22. PROMINENTLY. A 210432Z AMSR2 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED A
    
23. WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AT THE SURFACE. THE INITIAL
    
24. POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM
    
25. THE AMSR2 IMAGE, SUPPORTED BY ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM GOVE. THE
    
26. INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,
    
27. PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY THE T4.5 AGENCY DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND
    
28. KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT NARELLE IS CURRENTLY
    
29. PLACED WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG
    
30. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL
    
31. WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
    
32. 
    
33. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
34. 
    
35. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    
36. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA.
    
37. 
    
38. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
39.    PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
40.    KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
41.    ABRF: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
42.    CIMSS SATCON: 74 KTS AT 210600Z
    
43.    CIMSS ADT: 74 KTS AT 210600Z
    
44.    CIMSS AIDT: 74 KTS AT 210600Z
    
45.    CIMSS D-MINT: 58 KTS AT 210432Z
    
46.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 54 KTS AT 210600Z
    
47. 
    
48. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
49.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
50.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
51.    OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
    
52. 
    
53. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
54.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
55.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
56.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
57. 
    
58. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
59. 
    
60. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
61. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
62. 
    
63. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 27P IS FORECAST TO TRACK
    
64. WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STR TO THE
    
65. SOUTH THROUGH TAU 96. LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE TOP
    
66. END IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ABOUT 6 HOURS, SOUTHWEST OF GOVE. TC
    
67. NARELLE WILL THEN TRAVERSE ACROSS THE TOP END, SOUTH OF DARWIN, AND
    
68. EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BONAPARTE GULF AROUND TAU
    
69. 42. NARELLE WILL THEN MAKE ANOTHER LANDFALL, NORTHWEST OF WYNDHAM,
    
70. NEAR TAU 48 AND ONCE AGAIN EMERGE BACK OVER WATER, EAST OF ADELE
    
71. ISLAND, JUST BEFORE TAU 72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN CONTINUE ON A
    
72. WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 96 AS IT NEARS THE
    
73. NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 96, NARELLE WILL TURN
    
74. MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS A POLEWARD TRACK, AROUND THE RIDGE
    
75. AXIS. REGARDING INTENSITY, NARELLE IS FORECAST TO ONLY HAVE ANOTHER
    
76. 6 HOURS TO INTENSIFY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING.
    
77. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DROP TO 35 KTS BY TAU 36 DUE TO TERRAIN
    
78. INTERACTION, WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH AROUND TAU 60, WHERE
    
79. IT EMERGES BACK OVER WATER NEAR ADELE ISLAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
    
80. BEGIN TO RECUPERATE AFTER AN EXTENDED AMOUNT OF TIME OVER LAND AS
    
81. IT TAKES ADVANTAGE OF A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. RAPID
    
82. INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR FROM TAU 96 TO 120 FROM 65 KTS
    
83. TO 95 KTS AS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW SHEAR, AND WARM SEA
    
84. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT.
    
85. 
    
86. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
    
87. AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF JUST 55 NM AT
    
88. TAU 72. ALONG-TRACK SPREAD HAS INCREASED THIS MODEL RUN, TO AROUND
    
89. 160 NM AT TAU 72, WITH NAVGEM AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BEING
    
90. NOTABLY SLOWER THAN THE REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE. AFTER TAU 72, MODELS
    
91. BEGIN TO DIFFER WITH SOME MODELS DEPICTING AN EXTENSION OF THE STR
    
92. EXTENDING WESTWARD, KEEPING THE SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTWARD
    
93. TRAJECTORY, WHILE OTHERS HAVE THE SYSTEM TURNING MORE SHARPLY
    
94. POLEWARD. THE GFS AND ECMWF (AS WELL AS THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS)
    
95. DEPICT THE FORMER GROUPING WHILE THE AI MODELS DEPICTS THE LATTER
    
96. GROUPING. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 120 OPENS UP TO OVER 300 NM.
    
97. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN
    
98. THROUGH TAU 72, THEN SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE AI MODELS THROUGH TAU
    
99. 120. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THROUGH TAU 72 AND MEDIUM THEREAFTER.
    
100. INTENSITY GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON RAPID WEAKENING THROUGH TAU
     
101. 36, A STEADY INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 60, AND QUICK REDEVELOPMENT
     
102. AFTERWARD. HWRF IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL AFTER TAU 60,
     
103. SUGGESTING AN INTENSITY OF AROUND 105 KTS AT TAU 120. THE JTWC
     
104. INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72,
     
105. THEN CLOSER TO HWRF THROUGH TAU 120 DUE TO THE EXPECTED HIGHLY
     
106. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
     
107. 
     
108. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
109.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
     
110.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
     
111.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
112.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
     
113. NNNN

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pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：葛畅、刘涛  签发：董林  2026 年 03 月 21 日 18 时
“纳蕾勒”将在澳大利亚北部沿海再次登陆

时  间: 3月21日14时（北京时,下同）

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “纳蕾勒”，NARELLE

中心位置: 南纬13.0度，东经137.8度

强度等级: 三级强热带气旋

最大风力: 12级，33米/秒，相当于我国的台风级

中心气压:  978百帕

参考位置:   距离澳大利亚纽兰拜东南方向约145 公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“纳蕾勒”由10级增强至12级

预报结论: 预计，“纳蕾勒”将以每小时20公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动，强度逐渐减弱，将于22日凌晨在澳大利亚北部沿海再次登陆（25-35米/秒，10-12级，相当于我国的强热带风暴级或台风级）。受其影响，21日夜间，澳大利亚北部沿海及海域、卡奔塔利亚湾将有8-10级大风，“纳蕾勒”中心经过的附近海域或地区风力可达10-12级，阵风13-14级。今天下午起，麦克阿瑟港至纽兰拜之间的沿海及邻近内陆地区或将出现强降雨，并可能引发暴洪；周日期间，降雨范围将进一步向内陆扩展。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年3月21日14时00分）

Enceladus

在卡湾仍然保留了结构

ygsj24

IDD20150
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Birany Birany to north of
Numbulwar, including Groote Eylandt are requested to USE the Standard Emergency
Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 30
Issued at 4:18 pm ACST on Saturday 21 March 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle beginning to impact the eastern Top End.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Nhulunbuy to Nathan River, including Numbulwar, Alyangula, and
Gapuwiyak. Extending west to include Ramingining, Bulman, and Ngukurr.

Watch zone: King George River Mouth to the WA/NT Border.

Cancelled zone: Port McArthur, including Borroloola.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 3:30 pm ACST:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 120 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 165 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 13.0 degrees South 137.8 degrees East,
estimated to be 140 kilometres southeast of Nhulunbuy and 175 kilometres east
northeast of Alyangula.
Movement: west at 21 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is over the warm waters of the Gulf of
Carpentaria. Narelle is beginning to impact the eastern Top End coast.

Narelle is forecast to cross the eastern Top End coast overnight tonight or
early Sunday morning, most likely between Birany Birany and Numbulwar. Narelle
will then weaken as it moves inland across the Top End on Sunday and Monday.

During Monday, a weakened Narelle is expected to move over the Joseph Bonaparte
Gulf and gales are forecast to redevelop to the north of the centre. There is a
Moderate chance that Narelle redevelops into a tropical cyclone while in the
Joseph Bonaparte Gulf.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 185 km/h are forecast to develop in
coastal areas between about Birany Birany and Numbulwar, including Groote
Eylandt, this evening and overnight into Sunday as Narelle approaches from the
east.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 160 km/h are forecast to develop between Birany
Birany and Numbulwar, including Groote Eylandt from late afternoon, and
possibly extending to be between Nhulunbuy to Nathan River overnight tonight or
Sunday morning depending on the movement of Narelle.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h developing in coastal and adjacent
inland areas between Gapuwiyak and Nathan River, including Nhulunbuy, and are
forecast to continue overnight into Sunday. These GALES may extend west to
Ramingining, Bulman, and Ngukurr on Sunday.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is developing about coastal and
adjacent inland areas over the eastern Top End between Nhulunbuy and Nathan
River, and is forecast to extend further inland during Sunday. LOCALLY INTENSE
RAINFALL leading to DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING is likely
over the eastern Top End between Birany Birany and Numbulwar, including Groote
Eylandt, during this afternoon and evening

Tides will be higher than normal between Nhulunbuy and Nathan River today and
Sunday. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas. A
potentially DANGEROUS STORM TIDE between Cape Shield and Port Roper is possible
as the cyclone centre crosses the coast with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS
FLOODING.

Western Australia:

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 90 km/h] are possible between King George
River Mouth and the WA/NT border.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible for the north
Kimberley during Monday.

Recommended Action:
NTES advises:

People between Gapuwiyak and Numbulwar, including Groote Eylandt and Nhulunbuy
should remain inside until the cyclone has passed and listen to the next advice.

People in remaining areas between Nhulunbuy and Nathan River, including
Borroloola, Numbulwar, Alyangula, and Gapuwiyak, should immediately commence or
continue preparations, especially securing boats and property.

People further west including Ramingining, Bulman, and Ngukurr, should take
precautions and listen to the next advice.

- Outside property, including boats, playground equipment, chairs and tables
should be secured using available daylight hours.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Secure NT website at
http://www.securent.nt.gov.au

- For emergency assistance call the Northern Territory Emergency Service (NTES)
on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees
on buildings or roof damage).

DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts
and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 7:30 pm ACST Saturday 21 March.

This advice is available on telephone at 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (ACST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	7 pm March 21	3	13.1S	137.4E	30
+6hr	1 am March 22	3	13.3S	136.6E	50
+12hr	7 am March 22	2	13.6S	135.5E	70
+18hr	1 pm March 22	tropical low	13.8S	134.2E	85
+24hr	7 pm March 22	tropical low	13.9S	132.9E	90
+36hr	7 am March 23	tropical low	14.2S	130.2E	95
+48hr	7 pm March 23	tropical low	14.7S	127.9E	90
+60hr	7 am March 24	tropical low	15.0S	125.2E	105
+72hr	7 pm March 24	1	15.7S	123.2E	115

pocketbox

IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1331 UTC 21/03/2026
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Identifier: 34U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 13.2S
Longitude: 136.9E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: west (260 deg)
Speed of Movement: 10 knots (19 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 100 knots (185 km/h)
Central Pressure: 973 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 35 nm (65 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  21/1800: 13.4S 135.9E:     025 (050):  065  (120):  978
+12:  22/0000: 13.7S 134.7E:     035 (070):  040  (075):  995
+18:  22/0600: 13.8S 133.5E:     045 (085):  030  (055): 1000
+24:  22/1200: 14.0S 132.2E:     050 (090):  030  (055): 1000
+36:  23/0000: 14.3S 129.5E:     055 (100):  030  (055):  999
+48:  23/1200: 14.8S 127.1E:     055 (100):  030  (055):  998
+60:  24/0000: 15.2S 124.6E:     060 (110):  030  (055):  998
+72:  24/1200: 15.9S 122.6E:     065 (125):  040  (075):  994
+96:  25/1200: 17.2S 118.4E:     080 (150):  065  (120):  978
+120: 26/1200: 18.7S 114.2E:     115 (215):  085  (155):  957
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is within hours of reaching the eastern
Northern Territory coast as a category 3 system.

The broad centre of Narelle is evident on the Gove radar, in addition to
infra-red satellite imagery and earlier microwave imagery.

The centre is broad and, In spite of the presence of vertical wind shear
(easterly at 20kn at 1200 UTC), development has occurred with improved
curvature in infrared imagery.  

Intensity 70kn slightly higher than subjective Dvorak based on objective
guidance, partial SAR (RCM-1 at 0903UTC) and a strong radar signature.

The wind structure is well represented by recent ASCAT-B at 11280 UTC, the
partial SAR pass in addition to observations of gales at Groote Eylandt and
Gove Airport (near Nhulunbuy).

Dvorak analysis: DT=4.0 based on curved band wrap of 0.9 (3.5+0.5 addition for
cold cloud tops on EIR); MET=4.0 on D 1.0/24h. Objective aids at 1200 UTC
(1-min means): ADT 79 kn, AiDT 78 kn, DPRINT 69 kn, DMINT (0720 UTC) 61 kn and
SATCON (0700 UTC) 60 kn.  

Narelle has begun to impact the eastern Northern Territory coast and aside from
the ongoing easterly winds shear, the environment remains generally favourable
due to warm SSTs and high moisture until it reaches land. Guidance then shows
rapid weakening over land although heavy rainfall will extend across the
Northern Territory as the system tracks steadily west on Sunday and Monday.   

A strong mid-level ridge extending across Australia will remain the dominant
steering mechanism for Narelle well into next week. There is high confidence in
a westward forecast track across northern Australia. This briefly takes it over
the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf on Monday where gales may redevelop over water, then
over the northern Kimberley, and moving offshore again on Tuesday.  

The range of model guidance is consistent in suggesting development into a
severe tropical cyclone as it moves roughly parallel to the Pilbara coast on
Wednesday and Thursday. The range of scenarios then include a more southward
track off the WA west coast towards next weekend.  

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 21/1930 UTC.

---

IDD20150

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Nhulunbuy to north of Numbulwar, including Groote Eylandt, are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 32
Issued at 10:23 pm ACST on Saturday 21 March 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle beginning to impact the eastern Top End between Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt. To move west across the Northern Territory on Sunday.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Milingimbi to Nathan River, including Nhulunbuy, Galiwin'ku, Numbulwar, Alyangula, Gapuwiyak, Bulman, and Ngukurr.

Watch Zone
King George River Mouth to WA/NT Border.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 9:30 pm ACST:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 130 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 185 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 13.2 degrees South 136.9 degrees East, estimated to be 105 kilometres south of Nhulunbuy and 95 kilometres northeast of Alyangula.

Movement: west at 19 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is impacting coastal areas of the eastern Top End with a coastal crossing early Sunday morning between Birany Birany and Numbulwar. Narelle will then track across the Top End on Sunday and Monday as a tropical low and a Severe Weather Warning is current for heavy, locally intense rainfall and damaging winds.

During Monday, Narelle is expected to move over the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf and gales are forecast to redevelop to the north of the centre. There is a Moderate chance that Narelle redevelops into a tropical cyclone while in the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf near the NT/WA Border.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 185 km/h are forecast to develop in coastal areas between about Birany Birany and Numbulwar, including Groote Eylandt, overnight into Sunday as Narelle makes landfall.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 160 km/h are expected between Nhulunbuy and Numbulwar, including Groote Eylandt overnight into Sunday.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are developing in coastal and adjacent inland areas between Cape Wessel and Nathan River, including Nhulunbuy and Galiwin'ku, and are likely to continue overnight into Sunday. These GALES may extend west to Milingimbi, Ramingining, Bulman, and Ngukurr during Sunday morning.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is developing about coastal and adjacent inland areas over the eastern Top End between Milingimbi and Nathan River, and is forecast to extend further inland during Sunday. LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL leading to DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING is likely over the eastern Top End between Birany Birany and Numbulwar, including Groote Eylandt overnight, extending inland towards Bulman on Sunday.

Tides will be higher than normal between Milingimbi and Nathan River tonight and Sunday. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas. A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE between Birany Birany and Port Roper, including Groote Eylandt, is possible as the cyclone centre crosses the coast with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Western Australia:

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 90 km/h are possible between King George River Mouth and the WA/NT border during Monday.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible for the north Kimberley during Monday.

Recommended Action:
NTES advises:

People between Nhulunbuy and Numbulwar, including Groote Eylandt (Alyangula), and Gapuwiyak, should remain inside until the cyclone has passed and listen to the next advice at 1.30 am.

- Do not venture outside if you find yourself in the eye of the cyclone - very destructive winds from a different direction could resume at any time

- Heed the advice and follow the instructions of Emergency Services personnel and local authorities.

People in remaining areas between Milingimbi and Nathan River, including Numbulwar, Bulman, and Ngukurr, should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 1:30 am.

- Outside property, including boats, playground equipment, chairs and tables should be secured.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Secure NT website at https://securent.nt.gov.au

- For emergency assistance call the Northern Territory Emergency Service (NTES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 1:30 am ACST Sunday 22 March.

This advice is available on telephone at 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (ACST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	10 pm March 21	3	13.2S	136.9E	30
+6hr	4 am March 22	3	13.4S	135.9E	50
+12hr	10 am March 22	1	13.7S	134.7E	70
+18hr	4 pm March 22	tropical low	13.8S	133.5E	85
+24hr	10 pm March 22	tropical low	14.0S	132.2E	90
+36hr	10 am March 23	tropical low	14.3S	129.5E	100
+48hr	10 pm March 23	tropical low	14.8S	127.1E	100
+60hr	10 am March 24	tropical low	15.2S	124.6E	110
+72hr	10 pm March 24	1	15.9S	122.6E	125

pocketbox

WTPS31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 015   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211200Z --- NEAR 13.1S 136.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 136.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 13.5S 134.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 14.0S 131.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 14.5S 129.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 15.1S 126.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 16.5S 122.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 18.2S 117.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 20.6S 114.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 136.2E.
21MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
347 NM EAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 211200Z IS
973 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.//
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 211500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING
   
4. NR 015//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 13.1S 136.8E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 347 NM EAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 10 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WITH A FILLED EYE AND VIGOROUS BURSTS OF DEEP
    
19. CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE MADE
    
20. LANDFALL ABOUT 50 NM SOUTH OF GOVE AIRPORT, NEAR CAPE SHIELD, AT
    
21. AROUND 211400Z. A TIMELY 211131Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALED THAT
    
22. THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF
    
23. THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION AND WIND RADII ARE BOTH PLACED
    
24. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
    
25. OF 80 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY
    
26. DVORAK FIXES AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
    
27. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 27P IS NOW IN A MARGINAL
    
28. ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND
    
29. WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES GREATLY OFFSET BY TERRAIN
    
30. INTERACTION AND MODERATE (15-20 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
    
31. 
    
32. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 211131Z METOP-B ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
33. 
    
34. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    
35. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA.
    
36. 
    
37. 
    
38. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
39.    PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
40.    KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
41.    ABRF: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
42.    CIMSS ADT: 79 KTS AT 211230Z
    
43.    CIMSS AIDT: 78 KTS AT 211230Z
    
44.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 80 KTS AT 211230Z
    
45. 
    
46. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
    
47.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
48.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
49.    OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
    
50.    OTHER FACTORS: TERRAIN INTERACTION
    
51. 
    
52. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
53.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
54.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
55.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
56. 
    
57. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
58. 
    
59. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
60. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
61. 
    
62. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC NARELLE IS FORECAST TO TRACK
    
63. WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STR TO THE
    
64. SOUTH THROUGH TAU 96. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE TOP END
    
65. THROUGH TAU 36, WHERE IT WILL EMERGE BACK OVER WATER WITHIN THE
    
66. SOUTHERN BONAPARTE GULF. A SECOND LANDFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
    
67. NORTH OF WYNDHAM AROUND TAU 42. TC NARELLE IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
    
68. TO EMERGE BACK OVER WATER, EAST OF ADELE ISLAND, NEAR TAU 60. THE
    
69. SYSTEM WILL THEN CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
    
70. THROUGH TAU 96 AS IT NEARS THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR.
    
71. AFTER TAU 96, TC NARELLE WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT
    
72. INITIATES A POLEWARD TRACK AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. REGARDING
    
73. INTENSITY, NARELLE IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 24 AS
    
74. IT TRACK ACROSS THE TOP END. AN INTENSITY OF 35-40 KTS IS THEN
    
75. EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO FEEL
    
76. THE EFFECTS OF TERRAIN INTERACTION AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE KIMBERELY
    
77. COASTLINE. ONCE THE SYSTEM EMERGES BACK OVER WATER AROUND TAU 60,
    
78. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE. A COMBINATION OF WARM SEA
    
79. SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW SHEAR, AND STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT, WILL
    
80. ALLOW FOR TC NARELLE TO REDEVELOP WITH A RAPID RATE OF
    
81. INTENSIFICATION AS IT APPROACHES THE EXMOUTH PENINSULA THROUGH TAU
    
82. 120.
    
83. 
    
84. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
    
85. AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 75 NM AND AN
    
86. ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF 140 NM AT TAU 72. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
    
87. CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST MODEL WHILE THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC IS
    
88. THE FASTEST. AFTER TAU 72, MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH TWO DISTINCT
    
89. GROUPINGS OF AI MODELS AND NON-AI MODELS. THE NON-AI MODELS TRACK
    
90. THE VORTEX FURTHER NORTH OF THE EXMOUTH PENINSULA BEFORE TURNING
    
91. POLEWARD. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS TO OCCUR DUE TO AN EXTENSION OF THE
    
92. STR OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA EXTENDING WESTWARD, PREVENTING AN
    
93. EARLIER POLEWARD TURN. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE AI MODELS TRACK THE
    
94. VORTEX WITH A SHARPER TURN AROUND THE STR. THE EC-AIFS HAS THE
    
95. SHARPEST TURN AND DEPICTS THE SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL WEST OF PORT
    
96. HEDLAND AROUND TAU 108. THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN IS
    
97. FURTHER WEST AND HAS THE SYSTEM ENTERING THE EXMOUTH GULF AT TAU
    
98. 120. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
    
99. CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72 AND THEN CLOSER TO THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND
    
100. ENSEMBLE MEAN THROUGH TAU 120 DUE TO ITS STRONG PERFORMANCE.
     
101. INTENSITY GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON RAPID WEAKENING THROUGH TAU
     
102. 24, FOLLOWED BY A STEADY INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 48, AND QUICK
     
103. REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH TAU 120. INTENSITIES AT TAU 120 RANGE FROM 80
     
104. KTS (GFS) TO 115 KTS (HWRF). THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED
     
105. CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72 AND THEN CLOSER TO HWRF AND
     
106. HAFS-A THROUGH TAU 120 DUE TO THE EXPECTED HIGHLY FAVORABLE
     
107. ENVIRONMENT AT THAT TIME.
     
108. 
     
109. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
110.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
     
111.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
     
112.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
113.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
     
114. NNNN

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