西澳北部近海四级强热带气旋“纳蕾勒”(34U/27P.Narelle) - 横穿澳大利亚北部再度出海发展，平行海岸西南行进 - BoM:120KT JTWC:125KT

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IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1310 UTC 20/03/2026
Name: Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Identifier: 34U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 13.4S
Longitude: 141.2E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: west (267 deg)
Speed of Movement: 10 knots (18 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Central Pressure: 988 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm (45 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 25 nm (45 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm (45 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0 STT:S0.0/03HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  20/1800: 13.4S 140.3E:     030 (060):  055  (100):  985
+12:  21/0000: 13.4S 139.1E:     040 (075):  060  (110):  982
+18:  21/0600: 13.4S 138.1E:     050 (090):  070  (130):  974
+24:  21/1200: 13.5S 137.1E:     050 (095):  075  (140):  970
+36:  22/0000: 13.7S 134.9E:     050 (095):  040  (075):  994
+48:  22/1200: 13.8S 132.4E:     050 (090):  030  (055): 1000
+60:  23/0000: 14.0S 129.8E:     055 (105):  035  (065):  997
+72:  23/1200: 14.3S 127.5E:     065 (120):  030  (055): 1000
+96:  24/1200: 15.3S 123.1E:     080 (150):  035  (065):  997
+120: 25/1200: 16.1S 118.9E:     105 (190):  055  (100):  985
REMARKS:
Tropical cyclone Narelle now lies over the Gulf of Carpentaria and is expected
to begin a period of reintensification.  

The centre remains trackable on Weipa radar with reasonable confidence.
Satellite imagery suggests the system remains tilted under moderate to strong
easterly deep layer shear.  

Subjective Dvorak is now applicable with the centre having moved over water,
however, some caution is applied due to its recent track over land. DT is 3.0
based on a 3-hour average curved band pattern with a 0.6 wrap. FT/CI = 3.0.
Intensity estimated at 50 kn, consistent with a recent SAR pass at 0855 UTC.

CIMMS wind shear analysis at 0900 UTC shows upper easterlies over the system
contributing to an analysed deep layer wind shear of around 20 to 25 knots. The
environment remains marginally favourable due to the warm SSTs and high
moisture along the track. Conditions are forecast to remain similar as Narelle
tracks westwards with the system lying near the northern periphery of the upper
ridge. Most NWP guidance suggests reintensification and category 3 strength is
forecast prior to landfall on the eastern Northern Territory coast on Saturday
night, which is consistent with a standard rate of development across the Gulf
waters.

A strong mid-level ridge extending across Australia into the Coral Sea will
remain the dominant steering mechanism for Narelle well into next week. There
is high confidence in a westward forecast track across northern Australia.
Following landfall over the Northern Territory overnight on Saturday, Narelle
will then move across the Top End and off the Kimberley coast next week, where
redevelopment into a tropical cyclone is again likely.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 20/1930 UTC.

---

IDQ20023

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 24
Issued at 10:54 pm EST on Friday 20 March 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Narelle is now over the Gulf of Carpentaria and will impact eastern Northern Territory late Saturday.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
NORTHERN TERRITORY. Nhulunbuy to Port McArthur, including Borroloola, Numbulwar, Alyangula, and Gapuwiyak.

QUEENSLAND. Western Cape York Peninsula between Mapoon and Cape Keerweer, including Weipa and Aurukun.

Watch Zone
NORTHERN TERRITORY. Extending west to include Ramingining, Bulman, and Ngukurr.

Cancelled Zone
Parts of the Western Cape York Peninsula including Pormpuraaw.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 10:00 pm AEST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 13.4 degrees South 141.2 degrees East, estimated to be 55 kilometres west of Aurukun and 520 kilometres east of Alyangula.

Movement: west at 18 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle is now over the warm waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria. Narelle is forecast to strengthen during Saturday as it tracks quickly westwards towards the eastern Northern Territory.

Narelle is expected to approach the northeast parts of the Northern Territory during Saturday. It is forecast to cross the eastern Top End coast overnight Saturday or early Sunday morning, most likely between Birany Birany and Numbulwar, as a severe tropical cyclone. Narelle will then weaken as it moves inland across the Top End on Sunday and Monday.

Hazards:
Northern Territory

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 195 km/h are forecast to develop in coastal areas between about Birany Birany and Numbulwar, including Groote Eylandt, Saturday evening and overnight into Sunday as Narelle approaches from the east.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 160 km/h are forecast to develop between Birany Birany and Numbulwar, including Groote Eylandt from later Saturday afternoon and possibly extending to be between south of Nhulunbuy to Nathan River overnight Saturday or Sunday morning depending on the movement of Narelle.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are forecast to develop in coastal and adjacent inland areas between Gapuwiyak and Port McArthur, including Nhulunbuy and Borroloola, from Saturday afternoon and overnight into Sunday. These GALES may extend west to Ramingining, Bulman, and Ngukurr on Sunday.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is likely to develop for coastal and adjacent inland areas over the eastern Top End between Port McArthur and Nhulunbuy from Saturday afternoon. LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL leading to DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING is likely over the eastern Top End between Numbulwar and Birany Birany, including Groote Eylandt, during Saturday afternoon and evening

Tides will be higher than normal between Nhulunbuy and Port McArthur later Saturday and Sunday. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas. A potentially DANGEROUS STORM TIDE between Alyangula and Port Roper is possible as the cyclone centre crosses the coast with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Queensland

Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are likely between Weipa and Cape Keerweer for the rest of this evening as Narelle moves into the Gulf of Carpentaria. These DAMAGING WIND GUSTS may extend to coastal areas between Mapoon and Weipa tonight depending on the movement and development of Narelle in the Gulf.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING, with LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL, is likely to continue in the western half of Cape York Peninsula between Mapoon and Cape Keerweer this evening.

Recommended Action:
Northern Territory:

NTES advises:

People between Nhulunbuy and Port McArthur, including Borroloola, Numbulwar, Alyangula, and Gapuwiyak, should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property.

People further west including Ramingining, Bulman, and Ngukurr, should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Secure NT website at http://www.securent.nt.gov.au

- For emergency assistance call the Northern Territory Emergency Service (NTES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Queensland:

- People between Mapoon and Cape Keerweer (including Weipa and Aurukun) should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 2 am.

- Stay informed by checking your local government s Disaster Dashboards for the latest updates.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Get Ready Queensland website www.getready.qld.gov.au

IF YOUR LIFE IS IN DANGER PHONE TRIPLE ZERO (000) IMMEDIATELY.

- For non-life threatening emergency assistance contact State Emergency Services (SES) online via the SES Assistance QLD App (Apple, Android), online www.132500.qld.gov.au, or call 132 500 from anywhere in Queensland.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am AEST Saturday 21 March.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AEST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	10 pm March 20	2	13.4S	141.2E	35
+6hr	4 am March 21	2	13.4S	140.3E	60
+12hr	10 am March 21	2	13.4S	139.1E	75
+18hr	4 pm March 21	3	13.4S	138.1E	90
+24hr	10 pm March 21	3	13.5S	137.1E	95
+36hr	10 am March 22	1	13.7S	134.9E	95
+48hr	10 pm March 22	tropical low	13.8S	132.4E	90
+60hr	10 am March 23	tropical low	14.0S	129.8E	105
+72hr	10 pm March 23	tropical low	14.3S	127.5E	120

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WTPS31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 011   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201200Z --- NEAR 13.4S 140.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 140.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 13.4S 138.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 13.5S 136.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 13.7S 134.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 14.0S 131.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 14.8S 126.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 15.8S 122.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 17.0S 118.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 140.3E.
20MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
358 NM NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 201200Z IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 201500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING
   
4. NR 011//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 13.4S 140.8E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 85 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 358 NM NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 12 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE (TC) 27P (NARELLE) HAVING REEMERGED OVER THE EASTERN GULF
    
19. OF CARPENTARIA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, WITH REDEVELOPING DEEP
    
20. CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE
    
21. NORTHERN QUADRANT. MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT REMAINS
    
22. RELATIVELY CONVECTION FREE WITH A SMALL INJECTION OF DRY AIR INTO
    
23. THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WHILE PERSISTENT MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
    
24. SHEAR (VWS) OF 20-25 KTS REMAINS EVIDENT ALONG THE SYSTEMS EASTERN
    
25. PERIPHERY, ADDING PRESSURE TO THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES EASTERN
    
26. FACE. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS REMAINED MOSTLY OBSCURED OVER
    
27. THE LAST FEW HOURS DUE TO WIDESPREAD AND BUILDING CONVECTION IN
    
28. CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LLCC. THE ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS HAS
    
29. REVEALED A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE
    
30. TEMPERATURES (SSTS) OF 29-30 C AND SUPPORTIVE RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT,
    
31. OFFSET BY THE AFOREMENTIONED EASTERLY VWS OF 20-25 KTS. THE INITIAL
    
32. POSITION HAS BEEN PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
    
33. OBSCURED LLCC IDENTIFIED ON ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
    
34. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON
    
35. UNCERTAINTIES FROM HAVING JUST REEMERGED BACK OVER OPEN WATER AFTER
    
36. A PERIOD OF RAPID WEAKENING WHILE CROSSING QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIA.
    
37. 
    
38. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS FROM A
    
39. PARTIAL 200854Z RCM-1 SAR DATA COVERING THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE
    
40. 
    
41. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    
42. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST, OVER WESTERN
    
43. AUSTRALIA
    
44. 
    
45. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
46.    PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
47.    KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
48.    ABRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
49.    CIMSS ADT: 84 KTS AT 201140Z
    
50.    CIMSS AIDT: 75 KTS AT 201140Z
    
51.    CIMSS D-MINT: 70 KTS AT 200814Z
    
52.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 59 KTS AT 201230Z
    
53. 
    
54. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
55.    VWS: 20-25 KTS
    
56.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
57.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
    
58. 
    
59. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
60.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
61.    INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
    
62.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
63. 
    
64. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
65. 
    
66. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
67. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
68. 
    
69. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 27P IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
    
70. WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR CENTERED OVER
    
71. WESTERN AUSTRALIA INTO TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, A WESTWARD EXTENSION
    
72. OF THE STR IS FORECASTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND RETREAT EASTWARD,
    
73. CAUSING THE TRACK FOR TC 27P TO BECOME LARGELY WEST-SOUTHWARD UNTIL
    
74. THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING INTENSITY, TC NARELLE IS
    
75. EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECAY TO 80 KTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL ALONG THE
    
76. EASTERN COASTLINE OF THE NORTHERN TERRITORY, JUST WEST OF ISLE
    
77. WOODAH. ALTHOUGH WARM SSTS BETWEEN 29-30 C AND SUPPORTIVE OUTFLOW
    
78. ALOFT WILL PERSIST DURING THE SYSTEMS WESTWARD TREK ACROSS THE GULF
    
79. OF CARPENTARIA, ENHANCED EASTERLY VWS NEAR 25 KTS WILL LIMIT
    
80. OPPORTUNITIES FOR CONSIDERABLE INTENSIFICATION BEFORE A SECOND
    
81. LANDFALL. FOLLOWING TAU 24 AND AFTER LANDFALL IN THE NORTHERN
    
82. TERRITORY, SURFACE INTENSITIES WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY DUE TO
    
83. CONTINUOUS LAND INTERACTION AND MODERATE VWS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS. AS
    
84. TC 27P APPROACHES A SECOND REEMERGENCE OVER WATER IN THE JOSEPH
    
85. BONAPARTE GULF, INTENSITIES NEAR 45 KTS ARE FORECASTED. A BRIEF
    
86. WESTWARD TRACK OVER OPEN WATER IS EXPECTED UNTIL A THIRD LANDFALL
    
87. IN THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA. DURING THIS
    
88. PERIOD, STEADY SURFACE INTENSITIES NEAR 50 KTS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
    
89. THE SYSTEM REEMERGES BACK OVER OPEN OCEAN WATER IN THE TIMOR SEA.
    
90. FOLLOWING TAU 72 AND OVER OPEN WATER IN THE TIMOR SEA,
    
91. REINTENSIFICATION IS FORECASTED TOWARD 70 KTS BY TAU 120 AS THE
    
92. ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LARGELY CONDUCIVE FOR ONGOING TC SUPPORT.
    
93. 
    
94. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GREAT
    
95. AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
    
96. ILLUSTRATING A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 53 NM BY TAU 72, INCREASING TO
    
97. 146 NM BY TAU 120. THE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF TC 27P CONTINUES TO
    
98. LENGTHEN BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 120 DUE TO BRIEF PERIODS OF LAND
    
99. INTERACTION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD; HOWEVER, THE
    
100. MULTI-MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE REMAINS UNDER 200 NM. THE JTWC TRACK
     
101. FORECAST HAS BEEN PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE INITIAL
     
102. 72 HOURS, AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER DUE TO VARYING DEGREES
     
103. IN THE SPEED OF APPROACH FOR ALL JTWC TRACK SOLUTIONS IN THE LATTER
     
104. PORTION OF THE FORECAST. REGARDING INTENSITY, MOST JTWC INTENSITY
     
105. CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO ALIGN CLOSELY THROUGH TAU 120. THE
     
106. ONLY OUTLIER THAT REMAINS IS THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION,
     
107. WHICH CHARACTERIZES A SHARPER DROP-OFF IN SURFACE INTENSITIES INTO
     
108. TAU 36; HOWEVER, BECOMES ALIGNED TO THE CONSENSUS THEREAFTER.
     
109. THEREFORE, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ASSESSED WITH
     
110. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND ALIGNED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MULTI-MODEL
     
111. CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
     
112. 
     
113. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
114.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
     
115.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
     
116.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
117.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
     
118. NNNN

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eoj329

EC 00Z的二顛很跨張哦~~~風暴大致在東帝汶首都帝力以南700km左右掠過，橫過澳洲北部進入印度洋。

pocketbox

IDQ20023

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 25
Issued at 1:44 am EST on Saturday 21 March 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Narelle is moving through the Gulf of Carpentaria and will impact northeastern Northern Territory late Saturday.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
NORTHERN TERRITORY. Nhulunbuy to Port McArthur, including Borroloola, Numbulwar, Alyangula, and Gapuwiyak.

Watch Zone
NORTHERN TERRITORY. Extending west to include Ramingining, Bulman, and Ngukurr.

Cancelled Zone
QUEENSLAND. Western Cape York Peninsula between Mapoon and Cape Keerweer, including Weipa and Aurukun.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 1:00 am AEST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 100 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 140 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 13.2 degrees South 140.6 degrees East, estimated to be 155 kilometres west southwest of Weipa and 455 kilometres east of Alyangula.

Movement: west at 19 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle is over the warm waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria. Narelle is forecast to strengthen during Saturday as it tracks quickly westwards towards the eastern Northern Territory.

Narelle is expected to approach the northeast parts of the Northern Territory during Saturday. It is forecast to cross the eastern Top End coast overnight Saturday or early Sunday morning, most likely between Birany Birany and Numbulwar, as a severe tropical cyclone. Narelle will then weaken as it moves inland across the Top End on Sunday and Monday.

Hazards:
Northern Territory

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 195 km/h are forecast to develop in coastal areas between about Birany Birany and Numbulwar, including Groote Eylandt, Saturday evening and overnight into Sunday as Narelle approaches from the east.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 160 km/h are forecast to develop between Birany Birany and Numbulwar, including Groote Eylandt from later Saturday afternoon and possibly extending to be between south of Nhulunbuy to Nathan River overnight Saturday or Sunday morning depending on the movement of Narelle.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are forecast to develop in coastal and adjacent inland areas between Gapuwiyak and Port McArthur, including Nhulunbuy and Borroloola, from Saturday afternoon and overnight into Sunday. These GALES may extend west to Ramingining, Bulman, and Ngukurr on Sunday.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is likely to develop for coastal and adjacent inland areas over the eastern Top End between Port McArthur and Nhulunbuy from Saturday afternoon. LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL leading to DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING is likely over the eastern Top End between Numbulwar and Birany Birany, including Groote Eylandt, during Saturday afternoon and evening.

Tides will be higher than normal between Nhulunbuy and Port McArthur later Saturday and Sunday. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas. A potentially DANGEROUS STORM TIDE between Alyangula and Port Roper is possible as the cyclone centre crosses the coast with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Queensland

Gales and heavy rainfall are no longer expected on the Cape York Peninsula. Weipa recorded a maximum wind gust of 109 km/h at 5 pm and 206 mm of rainfall between 9 am and 11 pm on Friday.

Recommended Action:
Northern Territory:

NTES advises:

People between Nhulunbuy and Port McArthur, including Borroloola, Numbulwar, Alyangula, and Gapuwiyak, should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property.

People further west including Ramingining, Bulman, and Ngukurr, should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Secure NT website at http://www.securent.nt.gov.au

- For emergency assistance call the Northern Territory Emergency Service (NTES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Queensland:

- Stay informed by checking your local governments Disaster Dashboards for the latest updates.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Get Ready Queensland website www.getready.qld.gov.au

- For non-life threatening emergency assistance contact State Emergency Services (SES) online via the SES Assistance QLD App (Apple, Android), online www.132500.qld.gov.au, or call 132 500 from anywhere in Queensland.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am AEST Saturday 21 March [4:30 am ACST Saturday 21 March].

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AEST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	1 am March 21	2	13.2S	140.6E	35
+6hr	7 am March 21	2	13.3S	139.5E	60
+12hr	1 pm March 21	3	13.3S	138.5E	80
+18hr	7 pm March 21	3	13.3S	137.6E	70
+24hr	1 am March 22	3	13.4S	136.5E	60
+36hr	1 pm March 22	tropical low	13.7S	134.2E	75
+48hr	1 am March 23	tropical low	13.8S	131.7E	85
+60hr	1 pm March 23	tropical low	14.1S	129.1E	90
+72hr	1 am March 24	tropical low	14.4S	126.7E	95

1996莎莉

距离登陆地约50-60公里的Lockhart River录得最低海平面气压986.2hpa，推测登陆时中心约940hpa

Ragasa

IDD20150
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 26
Issued at 4:31 am ACST on Saturday 21 March 2026


Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Narelle is moving westwards through the Gulf of Carpentaria
and will impact the eastern Top End late Saturday.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Nhulunbuy to Port McArthur, including Borroloola, Numbulwar,
Alyangula, and Gapuwiyak.

Watch zone: Extending west to include Ramingining, Bulman, and Ngukurr.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 3:30 am ACST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 13.2 degrees South 140.1 degrees East,
estimated to be 205 kilometres west southwest of Weipa and 405 kilometres east
of Alyangula.
Movement: west at 20 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle is over the warm waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria.
Narelle is forecast to strengthen during Saturday as it tracks quickly
westwards towards the eastern Top End.

Narelle is forecast to cross the eastern Top End coast overnight Saturday or
early Sunday morning, most likely between Birany Birany and Numbulwar, as a
severe tropical cyclone. Narelle will then weaken as it moves inland across the
Top End on Sunday and Monday.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 195 km/h are forecast to develop in
coastal areas between about Birany Birany and Numbulwar, including Groote
Eylandt, Saturday evening and overnight into Sunday as Narelle approaches from
the east.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 160 km/h are forecast to develop between Birany
Birany and Numbulwar, including Groote Eylandt from later Saturday afternoon
and possibly extending to be between Nhulunbuy to Nathan River overnight
Saturday or Sunday morning depending on the movement of Narelle.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are forecast to develop in coastal
and adjacent inland areas between Gapuwiyak and Port McArthur, including
Nhulunbuy and Borroloola, from Saturday afternoon and overnight into Sunday.
These GALES may extend west to Ramingining, Bulman, and Ngukurr on Sunday.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is likely to develop for
coastal and adjacent inland areas over the eastern Top End between Port
McArthur and Nhulunbuy from Saturday afternoon. LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL
leading to DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING is likely over the
eastern Top End between Numbulwar and Birany Birany, including Groote Eylandt,
during Saturday afternoon and evening

Tides will be higher than normal between Nhulunbuy and Port McArthur later
Saturday and Sunday. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying
coastal areas. A potentially DANGEROUS STORM TIDE between Alyangula and Port
Roper is possible as the cyclone centre crosses the coast with DAMAGING WAVES
and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Recommended Action:
NTES advises:

People between Nhulunbuy and Port McArthur, including Borroloola, Numbulwar,
Alyangula, and Gapuwiyak, should immediately commence or continue preparations,
especially securing boats and property.

People further west including Ramingining, Bulman, and Ngukurr, should consider
what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Secure NT website at
http://www.securent.nt.gov.au

- For emergency assistance call the Northern Territory Emergency Service (NTES)
on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees
on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 7:30 am ACST Saturday 21 March.

This advice is available on telephone at 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (ACST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	4 am March 21	2	13.2S	140.1E	35
+6hr	10 am March 21	3	13.2S	139.0E	60
+12hr	4 pm March 21	3	13.3S	138.1E	70
+18hr	10 pm March 21	3	13.3S	137.1E	70
+24hr	4 am March 22	2	13.5S	136.0E	65
+36hr	4 pm March 22	tropical low	13.7S	133.6E	80
+48hr	4 am March 23	tropical low	13.8S	131.0E	95
+60hr	4 pm March 23	tropical low	14.2S	128.6E	95
+72hr	4 am March 24	tropical low	14.5S	126.1E	120

1. IDD20020
   
2. TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
   
3. Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
   
4. at: 1909 UTC 20/03/2026
   
5. Name: Tropical Cyclone Narelle
   
6. Identifier: 34U
   
7. Data At: 1800 UTC
   
8. Latitude: 13.2S
   
9. Longitude: 140.1E
   
10. Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
    
11. Movement Towards: west (275 deg)
    
12. Speed of Movement: 11 knots (20 km/h)
    
13. Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots (110 km/h)
    
14. Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots (155 km/h)
    
15. Central Pressure: 980 hPa
    
16. Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
    
17. Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
    
18. Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
    
19. Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
    
20. Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
    
21. Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
    
22. Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
    
23. Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
    
24. Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
    
25. Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
    
26. Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/W2.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
    
27. Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
    
28. Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km)
    
29. FORECAST DATA
    
30. Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
    
31. (UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
    
32. +06:  21/0000: 13.2S 139.0E:     030 (060):  065  (120):  976
    
33. +12:  21/0600: 13.3S 138.1E:     035 (070):  075  (140):  967
    
34. +18:  21/1200: 13.3S 137.1E:     035 (070):  075  (140):  968
    
35. +24:  21/1800: 13.5S 136.0E:     035 (065):  060  (110):  979
    
36. +36:  22/0600: 13.7S 133.6E:     045 (080):  030  (055):  998
    
37. +48:  22/1800: 13.8S 131.0E:     050 (095):  030  (055):  998
    
38. +60:  23/0600: 14.2S 128.6E:     050 (095):  035  (065):  995
    
39. +72:  23/1800: 14.5S 126.1E:     065 (120):  030  (055):  998
    
40. +96:  24/1800: 15.6S 121.9E:     085 (160):  040  (075):  992
    
41. +120: 25/1800: 16.3S 117.4E:     110 (210):  060  (110):  979
    
42. REMARKS:
    
43. Narelle is moving westwards across the Gulf of Carpentaria and is forecast to
    
44. re-intensify before landfall  
    
45. 
    
46. The centre is just trackable on Weipa radar with reasonable confidence.  Over
    
47. the past few hours Narelle has shown slow development, with a slight
    
48. improvement in curved band wrapping, though the system remains under strong
    
49. easterly deep-layer shear.
    
50. 
    
51. Dvorak analysis: curve band wrapping around 0.7 giving a 3.0. FT/CI = 3.0.
    
52. Objective aids at 1730 UTC (1-min means): ADT 72 kn, AiDT 60 kn, DPRINT 42 kn,
    
53. DMINT (1537 UTC) 44 kn, MW sounders (1536UTC) 69 kn and SATCON   (1730UTC) 66
    
54. kn. Some caution is applied to the Dvorak estimate due to the recent passage
    
55. over land. Current intensity is set at 60 kn, biased towards SATCON.
    
56. 
    
57. CIMMS wind shear analysis at 1800 UTC shows upper easterlies over the system
    
58. contributing to an analysed deep layer wind shear of around 20 to 25 knots. The
    
59. environment remains marginally favourable due to the warm SSTs and high
    
60. moisture along the track. Conditions are forecast to remain similar as Narelle
    
61. tracks westwards with the system lying near the northern periphery of the upper
    
62. ridge. Most NWP guidance suggests reintensification and category 3 strength is
    
63. forecast prior to landfall on the eastern Northern Territory coast on Saturday
    
64. night. A small amount of guidance indicates a slight chance of Narelle briefly
    
65. reaching category 4 intensity before landfall.
    
66. 
    
67. A strong mid-level ridge extending across Australia into the Coral Sea will
    
68. remain the dominant steering mechanism for Narelle well into next week. There
    
69. is high confidence in a westward forecast track across northern Australia.
    
70. Following landfall over the Northern Territory overnight on Saturday, Narelle
    
71. will then move across the Top End and off the Kimberley coast next week, where
    
72. redevelopment into a tropical cyclone is again likely.
    
73. 
    
74. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
    
75. ==
    
76. The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 21/0130 UTC.

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ygsj24

WTPS31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 012   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201800Z --- NEAR 13.3S 139.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 139.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 13.3S 137.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 13.5S 135.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 13.9S 132.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 14.2S 130.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 15.0S 125.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 16.2S 121.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 17.5S 117.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 139.1E.
20MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
511 NM EAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 201800Z IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.//
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 202100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING
   
4. NR 012//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 13.3S 139.6E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 511 NM EAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 12 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 35 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE (TC) 27P RECONSOLIDATING, WITH EXPANDING DEEP CONVECTION
    
19. ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND BANDING DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING
    
20. TO REWRAP AROUND THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 201616Z AMSR2 WINDSPEED
    
21. IMAGE REVEALS THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
    
22. SEMICIRCLE, DISPLAYING 55-65KTS OUTSIDE THE RAIN CONTAMINATED
    
23. REGION. A 201837Z GMI PASS REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
    
24. (LLCC) REMAINS BROAD AND ELONGATED WITH A SLIGHT VERTICAL TILT TO
    
25. THE WEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
26. ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE
    
27. TEMPERATURES AND A STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, OFFSET BY
    
28. LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE
    
29. INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
    
30. AFOREMENTIONED 201837Z GMI IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS
    
31. ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LARGE SPREAD IN
    
32. INTENSITIES REPRESENTED BY THE CIMSS ESTIMATES AND AGENCY OBJECTIVE
    
33. DVORAK FIXES LISTED BELOW, AND THE ASMR2 WINDSPEED DATA FROM
    
34. 201616Z.
    
35. 
    
36. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: A 201616Z AMSR2 WINDSPEED IMAGE
    
37. 
    
38. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
    
39. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA
    
40. 
    
41. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
42.    PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
43.    KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
44.    ABRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
45.    CIMSS SATCON: 67 KTS AT 201730Z
    
46.    CIMSS ADT: 72 KTS AT 201900Z
    
47.    CIMSS AIDT: 63 KTS AT 201900Z
    
48.    CIMSS D-MINT: 50 KTS AT 201618Z
    
49.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 43 KTS AT 201900Z
    
50. 
    
51. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
52.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
53.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
54.    OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
    
55. 
    
56. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
57.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
58.    INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
    
59.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
60. 
    
61. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
62. 
    
63. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
64. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
65. 
    
66. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 27P (NARELLE) IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS
    
67. WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT REMAINS ON THE
    
68. NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR CENTERED OVER WESTERN
    
69. AUSTRALIA. BEGINNING AROUND TAU 24, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
    
70. EASTWARD AND INDUCE A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FROM TAU 24-72.
    
71. AROUND TAU 72, 27P IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO A
    
72. WEAKNESS IN THE STR NOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA, RESULTING
    
73. IN A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FROM TAU 72 UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST
    
74. PERIOD. REGARDING INTENSITY, 27P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY
    
75. WITHIN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, INHIBITED BY MID-LEVEL VWS AND
    
76. NARELLE'S INTERNAL STRUCTURE. LANDFALL IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR JUST
    
77. PRIOR TO TAU 24, CAUSING 27P TO WEAKEN STEADILY AS IT SPENDS THE
    
78. NEXT 48 HOURS OVER LAND. NARELLE IS FORECAST TO REEMERGE BRIEFLY
    
79. OVER WATER WITHIN THE JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF BETWEEN TAU 48-72, BUT
    
80. IS NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFY DURING THIS TIME. THE
    
81. STORM IS ANTICIPATED TO EMERGE OVER THE TIMOR SEA NEAR TAU 72,
    
82. ALLOWING REINTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. THE
    
83. LIMITING FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION IN THE TIMOR SEA IS MID-LEVEL
    
84. VWS IN AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, INDICATING THE
    
85. POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER INTENSITIES AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
    
86. SHOULD THE VWS BE LOWER THAN FORECAST.
    
87. 
    
88. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IS
    
89. GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH MINOR DISCREPANCIES IN BOTH
    
90. CROSS-TRACK AND ALONG-TRACK SPREAD. AROUND TAU 72, THE AI TRACK
    
91. MODELS DIVERGE FROM THE TRADITIONAL GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS AND
    
92. ASSUME A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, WHILE THE REMAINING MODELS CONTINUE
    
93. ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, RESULTING IN A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF
    
94. ROUGHLY 200NM AT TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IN PLACED CLOSE
    
95. TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72
    
96. AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 72 THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
    
97. PERIOD. REGARDING INTENSITY, RELIABLE INTENSITY AIDS ARE IN GOOD
    
98. AGREEMENT IN INTENSIFICATION WHILE 27P IS WITHIN THE GULF OF
    
99. CARPENTARIA, FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL JUST
    
100. BEFORE TAU 24 UNTIL 27P REEMERGES OVER THE TIMOR SEA. THERE IS A
     
101. SLIGHT DISCREPANCY IN THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION ONCE 27P IS BACK
     
102. OVER WATER IN THE TIMOR SEA, INJECTING UNCERTAINTY INTO THE JTWC
     
103. INTENSITY FORECAST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT,
     
104. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM
     
105. TAU 0-72 AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 72-120, AND IS ALIGNED
     
106. SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
     
107. 
     
108. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
109.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
     
110.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
     
111.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH
     
112.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
     
113. NNNN

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ygsj24

IDD20150
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 27
Issued at 7:11 am ACST on Saturday 21 March 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Narelle is moving westwards through the Gulf of Carpentaria
and will impact the eastern Top End late Saturday.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Nhulunbuy to Port McArthur, including Borroloola, Numbulwar,
Alyangula, and Gapuwiyak.

Watch zone: Extending west to include Ramingining, Bulman, and Ngukurr.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 6:30 am ACST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 13.2 degrees South 139.6 degrees East,
estimated to be 255 kilometres west southwest of Weipa and 355 kilometres east
northeast of Alyangula.
Movement: west at 20 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle is over the warm waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria.
Narelle is forecast to strengthen during Saturday as it tracks quickly
westwards towards the eastern Top End.

Narelle is forecast to cross the eastern Top End coast overnight Saturday or
early Sunday morning, most likely between Birany Birany and Numbulwar, as a
severe tropical cyclone. Narelle will then weaken as it moves inland across the
Top End on Sunday and Monday.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 185 km/h are forecast to develop in
coastal areas between about Birany Birany and Numbulwar, including Groote
Eylandt, Saturday evening and overnight into Sunday as Narelle approaches from
the east.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 160 km/h are forecast to develop between Birany
Birany and Numbulwar, including Groote Eylandt from later Saturday afternoon
and possibly extending to be between Nhulunbuy to Nathan River overnight
Saturday or Sunday morning depending on the movement of Narelle.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are forecast to develop in coastal
and adjacent inland areas between Gapuwiyak and Port McArthur, including
Nhulunbuy and Borroloola, from Saturday afternoon and overnight into Sunday.
These GALES may extend west to Ramingining, Bulman, and Ngukurr on Sunday.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is likely to develop for
coastal and adjacent inland areas over the eastern Top End between Port
McArthur and Nhulunbuy from Saturday afternoon, then extending further inland
during Sunday. LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL leading to DANGEROUS AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING is likely over the eastern Top End between
Numbulwar and Birany Birany, including Groote Eylandt, during Saturday
afternoon and evening

Tides will be higher than normal between Nhulunbuy and Port McArthur later
Saturday and Sunday. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying
coastal areas. A potentially DANGEROUS STORM TIDE between Cape Shield and Port
Roper is possible as the cyclone centre crosses the coast with DAMAGING WAVES
and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Recommended Action:
NTES advises:

People between Nhulunbuy and Port McArthur, including Borroloola, Numbulwar,
Alyangula, and Gapuwiyak, should immediately commence or continue preparations,
especially securing boats and property.

People further west including Ramingining, Bulman, and Ngukurr, should consider
what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Secure NT website at
http://www.securent.nt.gov.au

- For emergency assistance call the Northern Territory Emergency Service (NTES)
on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees
on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 10:30 am ACST Saturday 21 March.

This advice is available on telephone at 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (ACST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	7 am March 21	2	13.2S	139.6E	35
+6hr	1 pm March 21	3	13.1S	138.6E	60
+12hr	7 pm March 21	3	13.2S	137.5E	65
+18hr	1 am March 22	3	13.3S	136.4E	60
+24hr	7 am March 22	1	13.5S	135.4E	60
+36hr	7 pm March 22	tropical low	13.8S	132.8E	75
+48hr	7 am March 23	tropical low	14.0S	130.1E	90
+60hr	7 pm March 23	tropical low	14.5S	127.7E	85
+72hr	7 am March 24	tropical low	14.9S	125.2E	110

ygsj24

IDD20150
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Birany Birany to north of
Numbulwar, including Groote Eylandt are requested to USE the Standard Emergency
Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 28
Issued at 10:13 am ACST on Saturday 21 March 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Narelle is moving westwards through the Gulf of Carpentaria,
and will impact the eastern Top End later today.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Nhulunbuy to Port McArthur, including Borroloola, Numbulwar,
Alyangula, and Gapuwiyak. Extending west to include Ramingining, Bulman, and
Ngukurr.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 9:30 am ACST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 13.0 degrees South 139.1 degrees East,
estimated to be 260 kilometres east southeast of Nhulunbuy and 305 kilometres
east northeast of Alyangula.
Movement: west at 19 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle is over the warm waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria.
Narelle is forecast to strengthen as it moves westwards towards the eastern Top
End.

Narelle is forecast to cross the eastern Top End coast overnight tonight or
early Sunday morning, most likely between Birany Birany and Numbulwar. Narelle
will then weaken as it moves inland across the Top End on Sunday and Monday.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 185 km/h are forecast to develop in
coastal areas between about Birany Birany and Numbulwar, including Groote
Eylandt, this evening and overnight into Sunday as Narelle approaches from the
east.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 160 km/h are forecast to develop between Birany
Birany and Numbulwar, including Groote Eylandt from this afternoon, and
possibly extending to be between Nhulunbuy to Nathan River overnight tonight or
Sunday morning depending on the movement of Narelle.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are forecast to develop in coastal
and adjacent inland areas between Gapuwiyak and Port McArthur, including
Nhulunbuy and Borroloola, from this afternoon and continue overnight into
Sunday. These GALES may extend west to Ramingining, Bulman, and Ngukurr on
Sunday.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is likely to develop for
coastal and adjacent inland areas over the eastern Top End between Port
McArthur and Nhulunbuy from this afternoon, then extending further inland
during Sunday. LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL leading to DANGEROUS AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING is likely over the eastern Top End between
Numbulwar and Birany Birany, including Groote Eylandt, during this afternoon
and evening

Tides will be higher than normal between Nhulunbuy and Port McArthur today and
Sunday. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas. A
potentially DANGEROUS STORM TIDE between Cape Shield and Port Roper is possible
as the cyclone centre crosses the coast with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS
FLOODING.

Recommended Action:
NTES advises:

People between Birany Birany to north of Numbulwar, including Groote Eylandt
should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place.

People in remaining areas between Nhulunbuy and Port McArthur, including
Borroloola, Numbulwar, Alyangula, and Gapuwiyak, should immediately commence or
continue preparations, especially securing boats and property.

People further west including Ramingining, Bulman, and Ngukurr, should take
precautions and listen to the next advice.

- Outside property, including boats, playground equipment, chairs and tables
should be secured using available daylight hours.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Secure NT website at
http://www.securent.nt.gov.au

- For emergency assistance call the Northern Territory Emergency Service (NTES)
on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees
on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 1:30 pm ACST Saturday 21 March.

This advice is available on telephone at 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (ACST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	10 am March 21	2	13.0S	139.1E	55
+6hr	4 pm March 21	3	13.2S	137.9E	65
+12hr	10 pm March 21	3	13.2S	137.0E	70
+18hr	4 am March 22	2	13.4S	136.0E	65
+24hr	10 am March 22	1	13.6S	134.9E	65
+36hr	10 pm March 22	tropical low	13.9S	132.3E	85
+48hr	10 am March 23	tropical low	14.1S	129.6E	90
+60hr	10 pm March 23	tropical low	14.5S	127.3E	110
+72hr	10 am March 24	tropical low	15.0S	124.9E	115

1. IDD20020
   
2. TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
   
3. Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
   
4. at: 0109 UTC 21/03/2026
   
5. Name: Tropical Cyclone Narelle
   
6. Identifier: 34U
   
7. Data At: 0000 UTC
   
8. Latitude: 13.0S
   
9. Longitude: 139.1E
   
10. Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
    
11. Movement Towards: west (281 deg)
    
12. Speed of Movement: 10 knots (19 km/h)
    
13. Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots (110 km/h)
    
14. Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots (155 km/h)
    
15. Central Pressure: 983 hPa
    
16. Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
    
17. Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
    
18. Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
    
19. Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
    
20. Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
    
21. Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
    
22. Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
    
23. Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
    
24. Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
    
25. Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
    
26. Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/12HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
    
27. Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
    
28. Radius of outermost closed isobar: 220 nm (405 km)
    
29. FORECAST DATA
    
30. Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
    
31. (UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
    
32. +06:  21/0600: 13.2S 137.9E:     035 (065):  065  (120):  980
    
33. +12:  21/1200: 13.2S 137.0E:     035 (070):  070  (130):  975
    
34. +18:  21/1800: 13.4S 136.0E:     035 (065):  055  (100):  987
    
35. +24:  22/0000: 13.6S 134.9E:     035 (065):  040  (075):  996
    
36. +36:  22/1200: 13.9S 132.3E:     045 (085):  030  (055): 1002
    
37. +48:  23/0000: 14.1S 129.6E:     050 (090):  035  (065):  999
    
38. +60:  23/1200: 14.5S 127.3E:     060 (110):  030  (055): 1002
    
39. +72:  24/0000: 15.0S 124.9E:     065 (115):  030  (055): 1002
    
40. +96:  25/0000: 16.0S 120.6E:     085 (160):  045  (085):  994
    
41. +120: 26/0000: 16.9S 116.1E:     105 (195):  070  (130):  975
    
42. REMARKS:
    
43. Narelle lies over the warm waters of the Gulf of Carpenteria and is slowly
    
44. intensifiny as it moves west towards the Northern Territory.
    
45. 
    
46. The centre of Narelle lies between the Weipa and Gove radars, and consequently
    
47. only visible satellite imagery has been used to locate the centre this morning,
    
48. with only fair confidence as the centre is somewhat obscured by high cloud.
    
49. Narelle has shown some effects from deep-layer vertical winds shear (CIMSS
    
50. assessed 18 kn ESE at 1800 UTC), however, in recent hours deep convection has
    
51. developed over the centre.
    
52. 
    
53. Dvorak analysis: a difficult pattern, CDO with diameter ranging 70-100nm yields
    
54. a DT of 3.0. No MET or PT as not yet over water for long enough. FT/CI = 3.0.
    
55. Objective aids at 0000 UTC (1-min means): ADT 69 kn, AiDT 67 kn, DPRINT 37 kn,
    
56. DMINT (1843 UTC) 54 kn, and SATCON (1730UTC) 67 kn. Some caution is applied to
    
57. the Dvorak estimate due to the recent passage over land. Current intensity is
    
58. set at 60 kn, biased towards objective aids and little change since previous.
    
59. 
    
60. CIMMS wind shear analysis at 1800 UTC shows upper easterlies over the system
    
61. contributing to an analysed deep layer wind shear of around 18 knots. The
    
62. environment remains marginally favourable due to the warm SSTs and high
    
63. moisture along the track. Conditions are forecast to remain similar as Narelle
    
64. tracks westwards with the system lying near the northern periphery of the upper
    
65. ridge. Most NWP guidance suggests slow development, and category 3 strength is
    
66. forecast prior to landfall on the eastern Northern Territory coast tonight.
    
67. 
    
68. Narelle is likely to run out of time over water to develop further and the risk
    
69. of reaching category 4 is reduced to about 5% chance.
    
70. 
    
71. A strong mid-level ridge extending across Australia into the Coral Sea will
    
72. remain the dominant steering mechanism for Narelle well into next week. There
    
73. is high confidence in a westward forecast track across northern Australia.
    
74. Following landfall over the Northern Territory overnight tonight, Narelle will
    
75. then move across the Top End and off the Kimberley coast next week, where
    
76. redevelopment into a tropical cyclone is again likely.
    
77. 
    
78. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
    
79. ==
    
80. The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 21/0730 UTC.

复制代码

ygsj24

WTPS31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 013   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210000Z --- NEAR 12.9S 138.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 138.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 12.9S 136.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 13.2S 134.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 13.7S 131.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 14.2S 129.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 15.1S 124.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 16.6S 120.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 18.1S 116.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 138.3E.
21MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
463 NM EAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 210000Z IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.//
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 210300
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING
   
4. NR 013//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 12.9S 138.8E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 463 NM EAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 27 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
    
18. CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM UNDERGOING STEADY INTENSIFICATION, WITH A
    
19. FORMATIVE EYE FEATURE POSITIONED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF
    
20. THE CIRCULATION. MSI INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ATTEMPTING TO
    
21. WRAP UPSHEAR, THOUGH CURRENTLY RESTRICTED FROM FULLY ENCIRCLING THE
    
22. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DUE TO ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-
    
23. LEVEL AIR ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
    
24. CIMSS ATMOSPHERIC MOTION VECTORS INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
    
25. BIFURCATING AROUND THE VORTEX, INDICATIVE OF A MESOSCALE REDUCTION IN
    
26. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITHIN THE INNER-CORE ENVIRONMENT. A
    
27. 202058Z WSF-M COLOR-ENHANCED 37GHZ IMAGE REVEALED A WELL-DEFINED LLCC
    
28. WITH A NASCENT MICROWAVE EYE SIGNATURE AND AN EMERGING CYAN RING.
    
29. HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS ASYMMETRIC, CONSTRAINED TO THE
    
30. NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE EVIDENT ACROSS THE
    
31. SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. A 202015Z SENTINEL-1C SAR IMAGE REVEALED A 25-
    
32. 30NM WIDE EYE, AND A 69 KNOT MEAN VMAX. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
    
33. ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COMPOSITE OF MICROWAVE
    
34. IMAGERY AND SAR DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
    
35. CONFIDENCE, BOLSTERED BY THE AVERAGE OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
    
36. ESTIMATES AND CORROBORATED BY SAR DATA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
    
37. CONDUCIVE, CHARACTERIZED BY LOW TO MODERATE EASTERLY VWS, HIGH OCEAN
    
38. HEAT CONTENT (OHC), AND ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW.
    
39. 
    
40. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA
    
41. 
    
42. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    
43. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA.
    
44. 
    
45. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
46.    PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
47.    KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
48.    APRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
49.    CIMSS ADT: 65 KTS AT 210100Z
    
50.    CIMSS AIDT: 67 KTS AT 210000Z
    
51.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 41 KTS AT 210030Z
    
52. 
    
53. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
54.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
55.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
56.    OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
    
57.    OTHER FACTORS: DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK.
    
58. 
    
59. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
60.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
61.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
62.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
63. 
    
64. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
65. 
    
66. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
67. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
68. 
    
69. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27P IS FORECAST TO TRACK
    
70. WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ESTABLISHED
    
71. STR TO THE SOUTH. A SUCCESSION OF LANDFALLS IS ANTICIPATED, WITH THE
    
72. INITIAL IMPACT OCCURRING WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS ALONG THE NORTHEAST
    
73. COAST OF THE TOP END, NORTH OF GROOTE EYLANDT. AFTER LANDFALL, THE
    
74. SYSTEM WILL TRANSIT THE TOP END, PASSING WELL SOUTH OF DARWIN, THEN
    
75. EMERGE BRIEFLY OVER THE BONAPARTE GULF AFTER TAU 48, BEFORE MAKING A
    
76. SUBSEQUENT LANDFALL EAST OF KALUMBURU AROUND TAU 60. TC 27P IS
    
77. EXPECTED TO RETURN TO OPEN WATERS BY TAU 72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
    
78. ADOPT A GRADUAL SOUTHWESTWARD RECURVATURE, TRACKING ROUGHLY PARALLEL
    
79. TO THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA. TC 27P WILL DECELERATE AFTER TAU
    
80. 96 AS THE STEERING RIDGE MODIFIES AND THE STEERING GRADIENT
    
81. DIMINISHES. REGARDING INTENSITY, A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
    
82. (RI) IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HOWEVER,
    
83. MAGNITUDE WILL BE CAPPED BY LIMITED OVER WATER TIME, REACHING A PEAK
    
84. VMAX OF 80-85 KNOTS NEAR TAU 12. THE SYSTEM WILL DECAY RAPIDLY DUE TO
    
85. FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND LAND INTERACTION AS IT TRAVERSES THE TOP END,
    
86. THOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH (30-35 KTS)
    
87. THROUGH TAU 72 DUE TO DERIVED MOISTURE FROM SATURATED SOILS. UPON RE-
    
88. EMERGENCE OVER OPEN WATERS AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
    
89. RECONSOLIDATE AND BEGIN A SECONDARY RI PHASE AFTER TAU 96, REACHING A
    
90. PEAK OF AT LEAST 85 KNOTS BY TAU 120.
    
91. 
    
92. MODEL DISCUSSION: FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS OF THE FORECAST, THE
    
93. CONSENSUS PACKAGE EXHIBITS STRONG AGREEMENT, WITH MINIMAL CROSS-OR-
    
94. ALONG-TRACK DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS, LENDING HIGH
    
95. CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTER TAU
    
96. 72, GUIDANCE EXHIBITS BIFURCATION. THE NORTHERN CLUSTER (ECMWF,
    
97. NAVGEM, GFS, GALWEM, EGRR) PROJECTS A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY,
    
98. KEEPING THE VORTEX CORE OFFSHORE. THE SOUTHERN CLUSTER, PRIMARILY
    
99. DRIVEN BY AI-BASED MODELS, SUGGESTS A POLEWARD TRANSITION, PASSING
    
100. NEAR OR EAST OF LEARMONTH AFTER TAU 120. NOTABLY, THE NORTHERN
     
101. DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE TRENDED PROGRESSIVELY FURTHER SOUTH. ENSEMBLE
     
102. SPREAD REMAINS SIGNIFICANT, WITH GEFS AND ECEPS KEEPING THE CENTER
     
103. OFFSHORE, WHILE AI AND MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE (E.G., EC-AIFS, FNV3)
     
104. INDICATE A TRACK IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LEARMONTH. THE JTWC FORECAST
     
105. IS HEDGED SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, POSITIONED BETWEEN THE
     
106. DETERMINISTIC AND AI-CONSENSUS MEANS. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM DUE TO
     
107. INCREASING CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AND MODEL BIFURCATION IN THE EXTENDED
     
108. PERIOD. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL ALIGNMENT WITH THE
     
109. STRENGTHENING TREND, ALTHOUGH THE JTWC PEAK REMAINS HEDGED ABOVE
     
110. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE NEAR LANDFALL.
     
111. 
     
112. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
113.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
     
114.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
     
115.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
116.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
     
117. NNNN

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