西澳以北二级热带气旋“卢安娜”(16U/17S.Luana) - 24日登陆西澳北部

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUANA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUANA) WARNING NR 005   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240000Z --- NEAR 16.6S 122.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 122.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 17.6S 123.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 18.5S 123.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 19.6S 124.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 122.5E.
24JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 78
NM NORTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 240000Z IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 240300
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUANA) WARNING NR
   
4. 005//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 16.6S 122.2E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 78 NM NORTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (LUANA) CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS IT
    
18. TRACKS TOWARDS LANDFALL ON THE DAMPIER PENINSULA. ANIMATED
    
19. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, THOUGH
    
20. PARTIALLY OBSCURED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SPIRAL
    
21. RAIN BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE ASSESSED CENTER. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY
    
22. FROM ABOM INDICATES THE LLCC REMAINS SOMEWHAT BROAD; HOWEVER,
    
23. CONSOLIDATION OF THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE HAS ACCELERATED OVER THE
    
24. PAST FEW HOURS. A 232115Z WSF-M COLOR-ENHANCED 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
    
25. REVEALED AN IRREGULAR SHAPED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WITH A BREAK IN
    
26. THE EYEWALL ON THE EASTERN, UP SHEAR SIDE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
    
27. ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RADAR DATA AND
    
28. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
    
29. WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES
    
30. NOTED BELOW. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT, THOUGH
    
31. HINDERED BY THE PROXIMITY TO LAND AND THE VERY SHORT TIME REMAINING
    
32. OVER WATER.
    
33. 
    
34. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
35. 
    
36. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    
37. NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTH.
    
38. 
    
39. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
40.    PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
41.    ADRM: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
42.    APRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
43.    CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 240000Z
    
44.    CIMSS AIDT: 44 KTS AT 240000Z
    
45.    CIMSS D-MINT: 44 KTS AT 232118Z
    
46.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 45 KTS AT 240020Z
    
47. 
    
48. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
49.    VWS: 0-5 KTS
    
50.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
51.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
    
52.    OTHER FACTORS: PROXIMITY TO LAND.
    
53. 
    
54. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
55.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
56.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
57.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
58. 
    
59. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
60. 
    
61. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
62. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
63. 
    
64. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S WILL CONTINUE TO
    
65. TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
    
66. PERIPHERY OF THE NER TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 24, A BUILDING RIDGE
    
67. OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA WILL TAKE OVER AS THE DOMINATE STEERING
    
68. MECHANISM, TURNING TC 17S ON A SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE
    
69. GREAT SANDY DESERT. THE CENTER OF TC 17S IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
    
70. LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, ALONG THE COAST OF THE
    
71. DAMPIER PENINSULA. AFTER LANDFALL, THE CENTER WILL PASS CLOSE TO OR
    
72. POSSIBLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF KING SOUND, BEFORE TURNING
    
73. SOUTHWARD TO THE EAST OF BROOME. REGARDING INTENSITY, A MARGINAL
    
74. INCREASE MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO LANDFALL, THOUGH THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY
    
75. APPROACHING PEAK OPERATIONAL INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
    
76. DECAY AFTER LANDFALL, THOUGH THE RATE OF WEAKENING COULD SLOW SHOULD
    
77. THE CORE TRACK OVER THE THERMALLY CONDUCTIVE WATERS OF KING SOUND.
    
78. ACCELERATED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 12 AS THE SYSTEM PROCEEDS
    
79. FURTHER INLAND. THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
    
80. CYCLONE BY TAU 36, ALTHOUGH THE RESIDUAL CYCLONIC VORTEX IS LIKELY TO
    
81. PERSIST AS IT TRAVERSES THE GREAT SANDY DESERT.
    
82. 
    
83. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON
    
84. THE FORECAST TRACK, WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF EITHER CROSS- OR
    
85. ALONG-TRACK UNCERTAINTY. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE
    
86. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
    
87. ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT, SHOWING THE SYSTEM STEADILY WEAKENING TO 30
    
88. KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THEN LINGERING BETWEEN 25-30 KNOTS
    
89. FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE
    
90. CONSENSUS MEAN WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
    
91. 
    
92. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
93.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
94.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
    
95. NNNN

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红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 00Z分析升至T3.5

TPXS12 PGTW 232355
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUANA)
B. 23/2330Z
C. 16.50S
D. 122.25E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.0 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET YIELDS 4.0. PT YIELDS 3.5. DBO DT.
INTENSITY ESTIMATE MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO
LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   23/2115Z  17.88S  122.75E  MMWI
   HUYNH

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 03Z分析维持T3.5

TPXS12 PGTW 240310
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUANA)
B. 24/0230Z
C. 16.63S
D. 122.37E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 0.60 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 3.5. PT YIELDS 3.5. DBO PT.
INTENSITY ESTIMATE MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO
LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   23/2115Z  16.20S  121.78E  MMWI
   RUCKER

pocketbox

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Beagle Bay and Cockatoo Island, including Derby, are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 16
Issued at 11:43 am WST on Saturday 24 January 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Luana impacting the northwest Kimberley coast.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Broome to Kuri Bay, including Derby and adjacent inland areas.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Luana 16U at 11:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 16.6 degrees South 122.3 degrees East, estimated to be 70 kilometres west southwest of Cape Leveque and 150 kilometres north of Broome.

Movement: southeast at 13 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Luana is drawing close to the Dampier Peninsula coast between Beagle Bay and Cape Leveque, and the centre is likely to cross in the next 3 to 6 hours. Wind and rain impacts are already occurring about the northern Dampier Peninsula and should extend south this afternoon and overnight.

Luana remains a category 1 system but is forecast to strengthen to category 2 just prior to crossing the coast this afternoon between Beagle Bay and Cape Leveque.

After landfall, Luana may remain near or move back over the waters of King Sound, and may maintain category 2 intensity until it is close to Derby tonight. It will weaken below tropical cyclone strength during Sunday morning after moving further inland.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 130 km/h may develop near the system centre between Beagle Bay and Cockatoo Island today as the system approaches and moves over the coast. These DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS may extend to Derby tonight if the system maintains strength longer than forecast.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are currently occurring between Beagle Bay and Kuri Bay. These gales may extend south to Derby and Broome this afternoon, and to adjacent inland areas overnight tonight.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible for the northwest Kimberley district, including the coast and adjacent inland areas today.

Coastal residents within King Sound are specifically warned of the potential for a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone passes close to the Sound. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Tides will be higher than normal between Beagle Bay and Kuri Bay today and LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas as the system crosses the coast.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for peripheral areas in the Kimberley.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm AWST Saturday 24 January.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	11 am January 24	1	16.6S	122.3E	30
+6hr	5 pm January 24	2	17.0S	123.0E	50
+12hr	11 pm January 24	1	17.4S	123.4E	65
+18hr	5 am January 25	1	17.7S	123.8E	75
+24hr	11 am January 25	tropical low	18.1S	123.8E	80
+36hr	11 pm January 25	tropical low	19.1S	123.8E	110
+48hr	11 am January 26	tropical low	20.6S	123.6E	140
+60hr	11 pm January 26	tropical low	22.3S	123.9E	155
+72hr	11 am January 27	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 06Z分析认定中心在陆地上

TPXS12 PGTW 240554
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUANA)
B. 24/0530Z
C. 16.76S
D. 122.64E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

pocketbox

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0642 UTC 24/01/2026
Name: Tropical Cyclone Luana
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 16.8S
Longitude: 122.7E
Location Accuracy: within 10nm (20 km)
Movement Towards: east southeast (124 deg)
Speed of Movement: 6 knots (12 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Central Pressure: 986 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 160 nm (295 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  24/1200: 17.3S 123.3E:     025 (045):  045  (085):  989
+12:  24/1800: 17.7S 123.7E:     035 (065):  040  (075):  991
+18:  25/0000: 18.1S 124.0E:     040 (075):  035  (065):  994
+24:  25/0600: 18.6S 124.0E:     050 (095):  030  (055):  997
+36:  25/1800: 19.7S 124.1E:     065 (125):  025  (045): 1000
+48:  26/0600: 21.4S 123.9E:     080 (150):  025  (045): 1000
+60:  26/1800: 23.5S 124.5E:     095 (170):  025  (045): 1000
+72:  27/0600: 25.2S 125.3E:     105 (190):  025  (045):  999
+96:  28/0600:             :              :            :     
+120: 29/0600:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
The centre of Tropical Cyclone Luana is estimated to have moved over the
Kimberley coast between Beagle Bay and Cape Leveque around 5:30 UTC (3:30 pm
WST) today. The signature of Luana has improved on both satellite and radar
over the past six hours, despite increasing proximity to the coast, and it
exhibited a ragged satellite eye just prior to crossing. Centre position
estimated from Broome radar with good confidence.

Dvorak analysis (prior to crossing) based on a consensus of curved band (1.0
wrap for DT 3.5-4.0) and eye (DG surround, subtracting 0.5 for an elongated eye
giving DT 4.0). 3 hour average DT was 3.5. MET is 3.5 based on a 24 hour D
trend, and PAT is adjusted to 4.0. Final T 3.5 based on DT, with CI also 3.5.
Recent objective aids (1 min means) were AiDT 44 kn (0300 UTC), DPRINT 50 kn
(0520 UTC), MW sounders (0459 UTC) 56 kn, SATCON (0300 UTC) 52 kn. Intensity
set at 50 knots based on subjective Dvorak showing a strengthening trend since
last analysis. Surrounding observation sites have reported only intermittent
gales so far.

In the absence of land, the environment would remain favourable for further
development. Sea surface temperatures are around 30 - 31  C. The system is
located under a broad deep layer shear minimum with upper outflow evident on
both the poleward and equatorward sides. Given this, the system may maintain
intensity for some hours after landfall due to proximity to the waters of King
Sound. Weakening below TC strength is not forecast until Sunday when the system
is inland from Derby.

Motion continues to be to the southeast under the influence of a mid-level
trough to the southwest. This is expected to continue for another 12 to 18
hours. Beyond that, a weak mid-level ridge will form the east and take the
remnant low south over inland WA.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/1330 UTC.

---

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Beagle Bay and Cockatoo Island, including Derby, are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 17
Issued at 2:15 pm WST on Saturday 24 January 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Luana is crossing the Kimberley coast between Beagle Bay and Cape Leveque.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Broome to Kuri Bay, including Derby and adjacent inland areas.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Luana 16U at 2:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 20 kilometres of 16.8 degrees South 122.7 degrees East, estimated to be 50 kilometres southwest of Cape Leveque and 120 kilometres west northwest of Derby.

Movement: east southeast at 12 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Luana has strengthened to category 2 and is crossing the Kimberley coast between Beagle Bay and Cape Leveque. Wind and rain impacts are occurring from north of Broome to Kuri Bay and are expected to extend south this evening and overnight.

Luana may remain near or move over the waters of King Sound tonight, and may maintain category 2 intensity until it is close to Derby. It will weaken below tropical cyclone strength during Sunday morning after moving further inland.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 130 km/h may occur near the system centre between Beagle Bay and Cockatoo Island today as the system moves further over land. These DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS may extend to Derby tonight if the system maintains strength longer than forecast.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h currently extend from north of Broome to Kuri Bay. These gales may extend south to Derby and Broome this afternoon and evening, and to adjacent inland areas overnight tonight.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible for the northwest Kimberley district, including the coast and adjacent inland areas today and Sunday.

Coastal residents within King Sound are specifically warned of the potential for a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone passes close to the Sound. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Tides will be higher than normal between Beagle Bay and Kuri Bay today and LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas as the system crosses the coast.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for peripheral areas in the Kimberley.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 pm AWST Saturday 24 January.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 pm January 24	2	16.8S	122.7E	20
+6hr	8 pm January 24	1	17.3S	123.3E	45
+12hr	2 am January 25	1	17.7S	123.7E	65
+18hr	8 am January 25	tropical low	18.1S	124.0E	75
+24hr	2 pm January 25	tropical low	18.6S	124.0E	95
+36hr	2 am January 26	tropical low	19.7S	124.1E	125
+48hr	2 pm January 26	tropical low	21.4S	123.9E	150
+60hr	2 am January 27	tropical low	23.5S	124.5E	170
+72hr	2 pm January 27	tropical low	25.2S	125.3E	190

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUANA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUANA) WARNING NR 006   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240600Z --- NEAR 16.8S 122.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 122.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 17.7S 123.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 18.6S 123.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 19.8S 124.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 122.7E.
24JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 68
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 240600Z IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 240900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUANA) WARNING NR
   
4. 006//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 16.8S 122.5E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 68 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE 17S (LUANA) CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE KIMBERLEY
    
19. COAST, SOUTHWEST OF THE DAMPIER PENINSULA. THE EXACT TIMING OF
    
20. LANDFALL IS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 240700Z. THE SYSTEM HAS
    
21. MAINTAINED TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE
    
22. LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 240520Z AMSR2 36 GHZ
    
23. MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE,
    
24. ALLOWING THE INITIAL POSITION TO BE PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
    
25. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
    
26. BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATES
    
27. LISTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 17S IS
    
28. CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
    
29. STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
    
30. AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY TERRAIN
    
31. INTERACTION.
    
32. 
    
33. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
34. 
    
35. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: AN ELONGATED NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
    
36. (NER) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.
    
37. 
    
38. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
39.    PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
    
40.    APRF: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
41.    CIMSS SATCON: 51 KTS AT 240300Z
    
42.    CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 240220Z
    
43.    CIMSS AIDT: 43 KTS AT 240220Z
    
44.    CIMSS D-MINT: 58 KTS AT 240520Z
    
45.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 50 KTS AT 240520Z
    
46. 
    
47. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
48.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
    
49.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
50.    OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
    
51.    OTHER FACTORS: TERRAIN INTERACTION
    
52. 
    
53. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
54.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
55.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
56.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
57. 
    
58. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
59. 
    
60. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
61. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
62. 
    
63. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 17S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD,
    
64. FURTHER INLAND, OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. NEAR TAU 12, A RIDGE IS
    
65. EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA, CAUSING 17S TO TURN MORE
    
66. SOUTHWARD AS IT RIDES ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
    
67. REGARDING INTENSITY, 17S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN OVER THE
    
68. NEXT 24 HOURS AS TERRAIN INTERACTION ERODES THE VORTEX. WEAKENING
    
69. BELOW TC STRENGTH IS FORECAST TO OCCUR NEAR TAU 36, AS THE SYSTEM
    
70. TRACKS FURTHER INLAND WITHIN WESTERN AUSTRALIA.
    
71. 
    
72. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
    
73. AGREEMENT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU
    
74. 36 IS AROUND 90 NM. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE
    
75. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
    
76. ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING STEADY WEAKENING
    
77. THROUGH TAU 36. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO
    
78. PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS.
    
79. 
    
80. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
81.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
82.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
    
83. NNNN

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pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：徐润杰、刘涛  签发：向纯怡  2026 年 01 月 24 日 18 时
“卢安娜”在澳大利亚西澳大利亚州登陆

时  间: 24日14时（北京时）

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “卢安娜”，LUANA

中心位置: 南纬16.7度，东经122.6度

强度等级: 二级热带气旋

最大风力: 10级，26米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压: 986百帕

参考位置: 距离澳大利亚西澳大利亚州德比西偏北方向约120公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“卢安娜”由8级增强至10级

预报结论: 预计，“卢安娜”将继续向东南方向移动，强度缓慢减弱。受其影响，西澳大利亚州北部的金伯利亚地区沿海将有9-10级风，阵风11-13级，西北金伯利地区沿海及内陆地区可能出现强降水。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年1月24日14时00分）

pocketbox

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Beagle Bay and Cockatoo Island, including Derby, are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 18
Issued at 5:48 pm WST on Saturday 24 January 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Luana is moving inland over the Dampier Peninsula between Broome and Derby.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Broome to Cockatoo Island, including Derby and adjacent inland areas.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
Cockatoo Island to Kuri Bay.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Luana 16U at 5:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 20 kilometres of 17.2 degrees South 122.8 degrees East, estimated to be 85 kilometres west of Derby and 105 kilometres northeast of Broome.

Movement: southeast at 14 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Luana, category 1, has begun to weaken as it moves inland in the Western Kimberley. Wind and rain impacts are occurring from north of Broome to Kuri Bay and are expected to extend south this evening and overnight.

Luana is expected to weaken below tropical cyclone strength during Sunday morning after moving further inland.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h may occur near the system centre . These gales may extend to adjacent inland areas overnight tonight.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible for the northwest Kimberley district, including the coast and adjacent inland areas this evening and Sunday.

Coastal residents within King Sound are specifically warned of the potential for a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone passes close to the Sound. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Tides will be higher than normal between Beagle Bay and Kuri Bay this evening and LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas as the system crosses the coast.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for peripheral areas in the Kimberley.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm AWST Saturday 24 January.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	5 pm January 24	1	17.2S	122.8E	20
+6hr	11 pm January 24	1	17.6S	123.4E	45
+12hr	5 am January 25	1	18.0S	123.8E	60
+18hr	11 am January 25	tropical low	18.4S	123.9E	70
+24hr	5 pm January 25	tropical low	19.1S	124.0E	85
+36hr	5 am January 26	tropical low	20.4S	124.0E	110
+48hr	5 pm January 26	tropical low	22.2S	124.1E	135
+60hr	5 am January 27	tropical low	24.2S	124.6E	155
+72hr	5 pm January 27	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 09Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上

TPXS12 PGTW 240851
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUANA)
B. 24/0830Z
C. 17.03S
D. 122.72E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER