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ABPW10 PGTW 260600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/260600Z-270600ZJAN2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.5S 164.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 162.1W, APPROXIMATELY 503 NM
EAST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTH
PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). A DEFINED CENTER HAS YET TO FORM AS
THE WIND FIELD REMAINS HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WITH STRONGER WINDS (35-40
KTS) ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FLANK OF THE SPCZ WHILE MUCH
WEAKER WINDS (5-10 KTS) MAKE UP THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FLANK.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 94P TRACKING RAPIDLY
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE MAINTAINING AN ASYMMETRIC WIND
FIELD. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF 94P COMPARED TO THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS, LIKELY
PICKING UP ON THE PERIPHERAL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENCE
ZONE RATHER THAN THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEFINED CIRCULATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.6S
166.0E, APPROXIMATELY 234 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KTS), AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON 90P
TRACKING GENERALLY EASTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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楼主: yhh
发表于 2026-1-25 14:04
发表于 2026-1-26 13:58
