‌新喀里多尼亚以西热带低压06F(16P)

pocketbox

WTPS31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 009   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   230000Z --- NEAR 25.9S 177.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.9S 177.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 26.1S 178.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 26.3S 175.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 26.0S 178.0E.
23JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
474 NM SOUTH OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.THE WEAKENING LLCC HAS BECOME MORE ILL DEFINED
AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE CONTINUES TO DECREASE. MODELS AGREE THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOONWRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 230000Z IS 999 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 17 FEET.
//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z分析维持T2.0/2.5

TPPS10 PGTW 222101
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SE OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 22/2040Z
C. 26.16S
D. 176.15E
E. THREE/HMWRI9
F. T2.0/2.5/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. TIGHTLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
LOCATED WITHIN 75NM OF COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT
AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   HUYNH

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 00Z分析维持T2.0/2.5

TPPS10 PGTW 230030
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SE OF NEW CALEDONIA)
B. 22/2340Z
C. 26.18S
D. 177.39E
E. FIVE/HMWRI9
F. T2.0/2.5/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED
CLOUD LINES LOCATED WITHIN 75NM OF COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.5.
MET YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   HUYNH

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 03Z分析维持T2.0/2.5

TPPS10 PGTW 230243
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (S OF SUVA)
B. 23/0230Z
C. 26.12S
D. 177.75E
E. FIVE/HMWRI9
F. T2.0/2.5/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF
1.5. MET YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 06Z分析降至T1.5/2.0

TPPS10 PGTW 230541
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (S OF SUVA)
B. 23/0530Z
C. 26.23S
D. 179.08E
E. FIVE/HMWRI9
F. T1.5/2.0/W1.0/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED WITHIN
75NM OF OVERCAST LESS THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. MET
YIELDS 1.5. PT YIELDS 1.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 09Z分析维持T1.5/2.0

TPPS10 PGTW 230844
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SE OF SUVA)
B. 23/0830Z
C. 25.77S
D. 179.44E
E. FIVE/HMWRI9
F. T1.5/2.0/W1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH OVERCAST LESS THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF 1.0. MET
YIELDS 1.5. PT YIELDS 1.0. DBO MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 12Z分析降至T1.0/1.5

TPPS10 PGTW 231225
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SW OF TONGA)
B. 23/1140Z
C. 25.30S
D. 179.21E
E. FIVE/HMWRI9
F. T1.0/1.5/W1.5/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH OVERCAST LESS THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF 1.0. MET
YIELDS 1.5. PT AGREES WITH DT. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   23/0641Z  25.63S  179.40E  MMWI
   23/0918Z  25.42S  179.40W  MMHS
   PETERSEN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析无法找到中心

TPPS10 PGTW 231455
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SW OF TONGA)
B. 23/1430Z
C. XX.XX
D. XXX.XX
E. N/A/HMWRI9
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT BE
FOUND. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   23/0918Z  25.42S  179.40W  MMHS
   23/0956Z  25.65S  179.07W  MMHS
   PETERSEN

红豆棒冰冰

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2026-1-23 23:14
JTWC 15Z分析无法找到中心

JTWC稍早前重新分析

TPPS10 PGTW 231656
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SW OF TONGA)
B. 23/1431Z
C. 26.20S
D. 177.87W
E. FIVE/HMWRI9
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK
TO CLASSIFY. REANALYZED POSITION.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   HUYNH

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z继续分析TOO WEAK

TPPS10 PGTW 231813
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SW OF TONGA)
B. 23/1730Z
C. 26.80S
D. 177.08W
E. FIVE/GOES18
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO
WEAK TO CLASSIFY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   HUYNH