TCFA - 菲律宾以东93W - 12.0N 125.9E - JMA:TD[W]

Enceladus

TPPN12 PGTW 041225
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (NW OF PALAU)
B. 04/1130Z
C. 11.18N
D. 128.32E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED WITHIN 75NM OF COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.0. MET
YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
TIMMERMAN

Enceladus

ECENS 0512Z

ygsj24

ABPW10 PGTW 051900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/051900Z-060600ZDEC2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051351ZDEC2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051851ZDEC2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.4N 127.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 126.1E, APPROXIMATELY 156 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING NEAR THE CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 051346Z ASCAT REVEALS 15-20 KNOT WINDS
STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-
30 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL MOVE WEST OVER THE PHILIPPINES. GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL MOVE WEST OVER THE
PHILIPPINES, WITH ECENS SHOWING A HIGHER INTENSITY BETWEEN THE TWO
MODELS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 051900)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 05DEC25 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WAS LOCATED NEAR
16.0S 148.0W, APPROXIMATELY 129 NM NORTHEAST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, AND HAD
TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 051500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
NNNN

pocketbox

WTPH20 RPMM 051800
SECURITE

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING FOR SHIPPING NR. 08
ISSUED AT 1800UTC, 05 DECEMBER 2025 BY DOST-PAGASA, PHILIPPINES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004HPA
AT 1800UTC, PSTN 11.7N 126.1E MOV W 10KT
MXWD 25KT NEAR CTR

12-HOUR FCST VLD AT 060600UTC
PSTN 11.5N 125.0E, PRES 1004HPA, MWXD 25KT
24-HOUR FCST VLD AT 061800UTC
PSTN 11.3N 123.6E, PRES 1004HPA, MWXD 25KT
36-HOUR FCST VLD AT 070600UTC
PSTN 11.2N 121.9E, PRES 1004HPA, MWXD 25KT
48-HOUR FCST VLD AT 071800UTC
PSTN 11.0N 119.6E, PRES 1004HPA, MWXD 25KT
60-HOUR FCST VLD AT 080600UTC
PSTN 10.8N 117.3E, PRES 1004HPA, MWXD 25KT
72-HOUR FCST VLD AT 081800UTC
PSTN 10.5N 114.9E, PRES 1004HPA, MWXD 25KT
96-HOUR FCST VLD AT 091800UTC
PSTN 10.5N 110.7E, PRES 1004HPA, MWXD 25KT
120-HOUR FCST VLD AT 101800UTC
PSTN 10.7N 107.9E, PRES 1006HPA, LOW

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NM OF 11.7N 126.1E, SEND 3-HOURLY WX REPORTS.
NEXT WARNING 060000UTC
WEATHER MANILA=

pocketbox

WTPH20 RPMM 060000
SECURITE

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING FOR SHIPPING NR. 09
ISSUED AT 0000UTC, 06 DECEMBER 2025 BY DOST-PAGASA, PHILIPPINES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004HPA
AT 0000UTC, PSTN 11.8N 126.0E MOV W SLWY
MXWD 25KT NEAR CTR

12-HOUR FCST VLD AT 061200UTC
PSTN 11.9N 125.4E, PRES 1004HPA, MWXD 25KT
24-HOUR FCST VLD AT 070000UTC
PSTN 11.5N 123.4E, PRES 1004HPA, MWXD 25KT
36-HOUR FCST VLD AT 071200UTC
PSTN 11.3N 121.8E, PRES 1004HPA, MWXD 25KT
48-HOUR FCST VLD AT 080000UTC
PSTN 11.1N 119.9E, PRES 1004HPA, MWXD 25KT
60-HOUR FCST VLD AT 081200UTC
PSTN 10.6N 116.3E, PRES 1004HPA, MWXD 25KT
72-HOUR FCST VLD AT 090000UTC
PSTN 10.3N 113.8E, PRES 1004HPA, MWXD 25KT
96-HOUR FCST VLD AT 100000UTC
PSTN 09.8N 110.6E, PRES 1004HPA, MWXD LOW

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NM OF 11.8N 126.0E, SEND 3-HOURLY WX REPORTS.
NEXT WARNING 060600UTC
WEATHER MANILA=

桑美和伊欧凯

ygsj24 发表于 2025-12-6 04:45
ABPW10 PGTW 051900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL W ...

有一定机会拿到35W，但能不能成TS就随缘了。今年西太JTWC的TC编号，在新世纪仅次于2018年

parabola

桑美和伊欧凯 发表于 2025-12-6 11:25
有一定机会拿到35W，但能不能成TS就随缘了。今年西太JTWC的TC编号，在新世纪仅次于2018年 ...

TS可能很低，拿到35W可能性高。看吧。
新世纪西北太平洋不如以前了。

pocketbox

ABPW10 PGTW 060600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/060600Z-070600ZDEC2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051851ZDEC2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060151ZDEC2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.0N 125.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 126.0E, APPROXIMATELY 151 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING NEAR THE CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 051346Z ASCAT REVEALS 15-20 KNOT WINDS
STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(29-30 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL MOVE WEST OVER THE PHILIPPINES.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL MOVE WEST
OVER THE PHILIPPINES, WITH ECENS SHOWING A HIGHER INTENSITY BETWEEN THE
TWO MODELS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 051900) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 06DEC25 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WAS LOCATED NEAR
18.7S 147.0W, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI,
AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS.
SEE REF B (WTPS31 PGTW 060300) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
NNNN

pocketbox

WTPH20 RPMM 060600
SECURITE

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING FOR SHIPPING NR. 10
ISSUED AT 0600UTC, 06 DECEMBER 2025 BY DOST-PAGASA, PHILIPPINES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004HPA
AT 0600UTC, PSTN 11.8N 126.0E MOV QSTNR
MXWD 25KT NEAR CTR

12-HOUR FCST VLD AT 061800UTC
PSTN 11.9N 124.7E, PRES 1004HPA, MWXD 25KT
24-HOUR FCST VLD AT 070600UTC
PSTN 11.6N 122.6E, PRES 1004HPA, MWXD 25KT
36-HOUR FCST VLD AT 071800UTC
PSTN 11.2N 120.4E, PRES 1004HPA, MWXD 25KT
48-HOUR FCST VLD AT 080600UTC
PSTN 10.8N 118.1E, PRES 1004HPA, MWXD 25KT
60-HOUR FCST VLD AT 081800UTC
PSTN 10.4N 116.0E, PRES 1004HPA, MWXD 25KT
72-HOUR FCST VLD AT 090600UTC
PSTN 09.9N 113.5E, PRES 1004HPA, MWXD 25KT
96-HOUR FCST VLD AT 100600UTC
PSTN 09.6N 110.1E, PRES 1004HPA, MWXD 25KT

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NM OF 11.8N 126.0E, SEND 3-HOURLY WX REPORTS.
NEXT WARNING 061200UTC
WEATHER MANILA=

Enceladus

35W也无望，最后还是成了「废扰」