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TCFA - 卡奔塔利亚湾18U(92P) - 14.0S 141.1E

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发表于 2026-1-24 14:47 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:REMAINS LOW

ABPW10 PGTW 240600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/240600Z-250600ZJAN2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.0S 141.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 141.7E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS STALLED OVER THE CAPE YORK
PENINSULA. DEEP CONVECTION HAS REMAINED PERSISTENT AND DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KTS), AND TERRAIN INTERACTION. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
92P STALLING OUT OVER LAND AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

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发表于 2026-1-24 16:50 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Low 18U
Tropical low 18U a Low risk of developing to a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Carpentaria.
  • A tropical low (18U) lies over the western Cape York Peninsula, and is expected to move generally southwards in the coming days.
  • Interactions with land and the Cape York Peninsula will likely limit the chances of this tropical low developing.
  • There is a small risk that 18U moves back over waters of the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria and if it does so it may develop.
  • There is a Low chance of 18U developing to a tropical cyclone until late next week.
  • Residents of north Queensland and eastern Northern Territory should monitor forecasts for the latest updates.
Last updated
24 minutes ago, 08:24 am UTC

Tropical lowsToday 11:00 pm Tomorrow 11:00 am Tomorrow 11:00 pm Mon 26  Jan 11:00 am Mon 26  Jan 11:00 pm Tue 27  Jan 11:00 am Tue 27  Jan 11:00 pm Wed 28  Jan 11:00 am Wed 28  Jan 11:00 pm Thu 29  Jan 11:00 am Thu 29  Jan 11:00 pm Fri 30  Jan 11:00 am Fri 30  Jan 11:00 pm Sat 31  Jan 11:00 am Sat 31  Jan 11:00 pm
Tropical Low 18U 5 (Low) 5 (Low) 5 (Low) 10 (Low) 10 (Low) 10 (Low) 10 (Low) 10 (Low) 10 (Low) 5 (Low) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) null (None) null (None) null (None)

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发表于 2026-1-24 19:40 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 06Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上
TPPS12 PGTW 240600
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92P (S OF WEIPA)
B. 24/0530Z
C. 15.63S
D. 141.84E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES
UNAVAILABLE DUE TO LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER
惟愿公平如滚滚流水，而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2026-1-24 20:00 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 09Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上
TPPS12 PGTW 240854
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92P (S OF WEIPA)
B. 24/0830Z
C. 15.65S
D. 141.84E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER
惟愿公平如滚滚流水，而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2026-1-24 20:01 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 12Z分析无法找到中心
TPPS12 PGTW 241152
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92P (S OF WEIPA)
B. 24/1130Z
C. XX.XX
D. XXX.XX
E. N/A/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT BE
FOUND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   PETERSEN
惟愿公平如滚滚流水，而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2026-1-25 01:24 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 15Z分析认定中心在陆地上，随后重新分析并表示无法找到中心
TPPS12 PGTW 241501
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92P (S OF WEIPA)
B. 24/1430Z
C. 17.15S
D. 142.28E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   PETERSEN
TPPS12 PGTW 241512
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92P (S OF WEIPA)
B. 24/1431Z
C. XX.XX
D. XXX.XX
E. N/A/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT BE
FOUND. RE-EVALUATED FOR POSITION.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   PETERSEN
惟愿公平如滚滚流水，而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2026-1-25 02:35 | 显示全部楼层
ABPW10 PGTW 241800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/241800Z-250600ZJAN2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.0S 141.6E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
NNNN

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惟愿公平如滚滚流水，而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2026-1-25 02:36 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 18Z分析仍然无法找到中心
TPPS12 PGTW 241802
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92P (S OF WEIPA)
B. 24/1730Z
C. XX.XX
D. XXX.XX
E. N/A/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT BE
FOUND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   TIMMERMAN
惟愿公平如滚滚流水，而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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pocketbox

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发表于 2026-1-25 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Low 18U
Tropical low 18U over land and now a Very Low risk of developing to a tropical cyclone.
  • A tropical low (18U) lies over the western Cape York Peninsula, and is expected to move generally southwards in the coming days.
  • Interactions with land and the Cape York Peninsula will likely limit the chances of this tropical low developing.
  • The risk of 18U developing to a tropical cyclone has decreased. The situation will continue to be monitored and updated here if required.
Last updated
5 hours ago, 12:26 am UTC

Tropical lowsToday 11:00 pm Tomorrow 11:00 am Tomorrow 11:00 pm Tue 27  Jan 11:00 am Tue 27  Jan 11:00 pm Wed 28  Jan 11:00 am Wed 28  Jan 11:00 pm Thu 29  Jan 11:00 am Thu 29  Jan 11:00 pm Fri 30  Jan 11:00 am Fri 30  Jan 11:00 pm Sat 31  Jan 11:00 am Sat 31  Jan 11:00 pm Sun 1  Feb 11:00 am
Tropical Low 18U 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) null (None) null (None) null (None) null (None) null (None) null (None)

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发表于 2026-1-25 13:57 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 00Z分析认定中心在陆地上
TPPS12 PGTW 250000
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92P (S OF WEIPA)
B. 24/2330Z
C. 16.65S
D. 142.06E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES
UNAVAILABLE DUE TO LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   TIMMERMAN
惟愿公平如滚滚流水，而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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