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本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-1-23 08:55 编辑
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0051 UTC 23/01/2026
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 13.3S
Longitude: 119.2E
Location Accuracy: within 35nm (65 km)
Movement Towards: southeast (133 deg)
Speed of Movement: 5 knots (10 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 1001 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 23/0600: 14.0S 119.6E: 045 (085): 035 (065): 996
+12: 23/1200: 14.6S 120.2E: 055 (105): 040 (075): 994
+18: 23/1800: 15.2S 120.9E: 065 (120): 045 (085): 991
+24: 24/0000: 15.8S 121.7E: 070 (125): 050 (095): 988
+36: 24/1200: 16.7S 122.9E: 075 (135): 050 (095): 987
+48: 25/0000: 17.4S 123.3E: 085 (160): 035 (065): 996
+60: 25/1200: 18.3S 123.1E: 090 (170): 030 (055): 1000
+72: 26/0000: 19.8S 122.6E: 100 (185): 025 (045): 1003
+96: 27/0000: 23.0S 122.7E: 120 (225): 020 (035): 1004
+120: 28/0000: : : :
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 16U strengthening over waters northwest of the Kimberley.
The current position is based on based on animated satellite visible imagery.
The low level circulation has become more evident with the first visible images
of the day and is further east than analysed positions overnight. This is also
more in line with the guidance which is further east still. Deep convection to
the west of the centre continues to consolidate, with tighter banding and
convection forming near the centre. Fanning cirrus has also been seen to the
west indicated increased development possible during the day.
Intensity set at 30kn, based on Dvorak.
Dvorak analysis shows a curved band of 0.4-0.6 yielding a 3 hourly DT of 2.5.
The MET is 2.0 with a D 24 hour trend, adjusted to PT 2.5, with FT/CI at 2.5.
An Objective guidance is not yet available. An OSCAT pass at 1530 UTC shows 25
to 30 kn to the southwest under convection. An AMSR2 pass at 1800 UTC does show
gales to the southwest of the system, however this is located all under
convection and at the edge of the pass, so is not indicative of sustained
winds.
The environment is favourable for further development. Sea surface temperatures
are around 29 30 C, and the system is embedded within strong low-level
monsoon flow, providing deep tropical moisture. Upper-level outflow is
currently good, as shown by the increased cirrus fanning to the west. The upper
outflow is expected to improve further later today as an upper-level trough
approaches southwest Western Australia. The system is also located within a
pocket of low vertical wind shear, supporting further organisation.
Tropical Low 16U is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next
18 to 24 hours, with the potential to reach Category 2 intensity prior to
landfall on the northwest Kimberley coast on Saturday. If the system continues
to strengthen faster than expected today, or take a track further west and
remain over water for longer, the system reaching category 3 strength cannot be
ruled out.
The system is currently expected to be steered generally to the southeast by
the northwesterly low-level monsoon flow. However, as 16U deepens, it is likely
to respond more strongly to the amplifying upper-level trough to the southwest.
Numerical model guidance is reasonably consistent regarding the overall track,
with some variation in north south movement along the Kimberley coast
depending on the timing and rate of intensification.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 23/0730 UTC.
IDW24100
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 7
Issued at 8:48 am WST on Friday 23 January 2026
Headline:
Tropical Low 16U likely to develop into a category 2 tropical cyclone as it approaches the northwest Kimberley Coast on Saturday.
Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Broome to Kuri Bay, including Derby.
Watch Zone
Bidyadanga to Mitchell Plateau.
Cancelled Zone
None.
Details of Tropical Low 16U at 8:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 65 kilometres of 13.3 degrees South 119.2 degrees East, estimated to be 610 kilometres north northwest of Broome and 650 kilometres northwest of Derby.
Movement: southeast at 10 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Low 16U is currently located to the northwest of the Kimberley coast. The system is forecast to intensify as it tracks southeast during Friday, towards the northwest Kimberley coast.
16U may reach tropical cyclone strength overnight Friday and intensify to a category 2 system early Saturday, before crossing the northwest Kimberley coast on Saturday, most likely between Broome and Kuri Bay.
Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 130 km/h may develop about coastal parts between Cockatoo Island and Beagle Bay as the system centre approaches on Saturday.
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are possible between Kuri Bay and Beagle Bay from late Friday or early Saturday morning. Gales may extend east to Derby and south to Broome during Saturday morning and north to Mitchell Plateau later Saturday. Gales may extend south to Bidyadanga later Saturday if the system takes a track further west.
HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible from late Friday for the northwest Kimberley district, including the coast and adjacent inland areas during Saturday.
Coastal residents within King Sound are specifically warned of the potential for a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.
Elsewhere, between Cape Leveque and Cockatoo Island tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark with LARGE WAVES and MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas on Saturday as 16U crosses the Kimberley coast. Tides will be higher than normal between Beagle Bay and Mitchell Plateau on Saturday.
Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.
Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm AWST Friday 23 January.
Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone
| | Time (AWST) | Intensity Category | Latitude
(decimal deg.) | Longitude
(decimal deg.) | Estimated Position
Accuracy (km) | | 0hr | 8 am January 23 | tropical low | 13.3S | 119.2E | 65 | | +6hr | 2 pm January 23 | tropical low | 14.0S | 119.6E | 85 | | +12hr | 8 pm January 23 | tropical low | 14.6S | 120.2E | 105 | | +18hr | 2 am January 24 | 1 | 15.2S | 120.9E | 120 | | +24hr | 8 am January 24 | 2 | 15.8S | 121.7E | 125 | | +36hr | 8 pm January 24 | 2 | 16.7S | 122.9E | 135 | | +48hr | 8 am January 25 | 1 | 17.4S | 123.3E | 160 | | +60hr | 8 pm January 25 | tropical low | 18.3S | 123.1E | 170 | | +72hr | 8 am January 26 | tropical low | 19.8S | 122.6E | 185 |
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楼主: 大水台6
发表于 2026-1-23 01:53
发表于 2026-1-23 03:50
