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本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-1-23 11:10 编辑
ABPW10 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/230300Z-240300ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230151ZJAN2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230221ZJAN2026//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING AND REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 23JAN26 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 25.9S 177.0E, APPROXIMATELY 474 NM SOUTH OF SUVA, FIJI, AND HAD
TRACKED EASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.THE WEAKENING
LLCC AND HAD BECOME MORE ILL DEFINED AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE CONTINUES
TO DECREASE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 230300) FOR THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.5S 152.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.3S 154.0E, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 222303Z 89H GMI MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED CONVECTION DISPLACED
WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR
THE AREA INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KNOTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-
28 C), AND CONVERGENT UPPER LEVEL WINDS. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 90P HAS ALREADY REACHED ITS PEAK WIND SPEEDS
WITH GRADUAL DEGRADATION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES
ARE IN CONCURRENCE WITH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ON A NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK WITH WORSENING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.2S
140.4E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM NORTHEAST OF MORINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVENTION
BUILDING OVER THE CENTER AND VERY WELL DEFINED FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. RADAR IMAGERY FROM AUSTRALIA
SHOWS A TIGHTENING VORTEX WITH THE LLCC LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE
AREA ARE FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-
29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE ON CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, WITH
ECMWF SHOWING THE MOST INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPS21 PGTW 230230)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED PARA 2.A.(1) WITH FINAL WARNING
INFORMATION, DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO LOW, UPGRADED AREA IN
PARA 2.B.(2).//
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楼主: yhh
发表于 2026-1-23 10:32
发表于 2026-1-23 11:00
