西澳北部近海四级强热带气旋“纳蕾勒”(34U/27P.Narelle) - 横穿澳大利亚北部再度出海发展，平行海岸西南行进 - BoM:120KT JTWC:125KT

ygsj24

IDW24100
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area Murchison to Mullewa are requested to USE
the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 102
Issued at 2:38 am WST on Saturday 28 March 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Narelle is located inland to the northeast of Kalbarri and is
weakening.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Inland areas between Gascoyne Junction to Dalwallinu.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zone: Carnarvon to Jurien Bay.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 2:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 45 kilometres of 27.2 degrees South 115.2 degrees East,
estimated to be 185 kilometres north northeast of Geraldton and 240 kilometres
north northwest of Morawa.
Movement: south southeast at 34 kilometres per hour.

Narelle lies over the Gascoyne southeast of Denham and is weakening as it moves
quickly south-southeast.

Narelle is expected to continue tracking quickly south-southeast over land
while weakening further during today. Impacts will extend into the Central
West, before spreading further inland and south across the South West Land
Division. The strongest winds are expected to remain on the eastern side of the
system.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h extend over inland areas from
Murchison to Mullewa, and are expected to ease this morning.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 110 km/h are occurring in inland areas
between Gascoyne Junction and Morawa, extending south to Dalwallinu later this
morning.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible over Gascoyne and
Central West.

A Severe Weather Warning is also current for damaging to locally destructive
winds and heavy rainfall across much of southwest WA east of Perth and
northeast of Albany.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts
and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 am AWST Saturday 28 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling  13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 am March 28	2	27.2S	115.2E	45
+6hr	8 am March 28	tropical low	29.8S	116.6E	70
+12hr	2 pm March 28	tropical low	32.2S	118.7E	85
+18hr	8 pm March 28	tropical low	35.0S	121.0E	85
+24hr	2 am March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+36hr	2 pm March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+48hr	2 am March 30	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+60hr	2 pm March 30	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+72hr	2 am March 31	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 040//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 040   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271800Z --- NEAR 27.1S 115.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 27.1S 115.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 31.8S 118.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 27 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 36.5S 121.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 28.3S 116.1E.
27MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
295 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 271800Z IS 990 MB. NEXT WARNINGS AT
280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 272100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING
   
4. NR 040//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 27.1S 115.3E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 295 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LEARMONTH,
    
13.    AUSTRALIA
    
14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KTS
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE (TC) 27P (NARELLE) AS A RAPIDLY DECAYING SYSTEM WITH
    
19. OBVIOUS EASTWARD VERTICAL TILT AND WEAKENING CIRCULATION, EVIDENT
    
20. VIA EIR IMAGERY. ALL CONVECTION HAS BEEN COMPLETELY DISLOCATED
    
21. EASTWARD OF THE NOW EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
    
22. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON
    
23. ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY OF THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
    
24. 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON OBSERVED
    
25. WEAKENING VIA ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODEL
    
26. GUIDANCE.
    
27. 
    
28. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
29. 
    
30. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    
31. ANTICYCLONE OVER WEST-CENTRAL AUSTRALIA
    
32. 
    
33. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
34.    PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
    
35. 
    
36. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
    
37.    VWS: 30+ KTS
    
38.    SST: OVER LAND
    
39.    OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD
    
40. 
    
41. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
42.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
43.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
44.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
45. 
    
46. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
47. 
    
48. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
49. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
50. 
    
51. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 27P (NARELLE) WILL CONTINUE MOVING
    
52. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER
    
53. ANTICYCLONE OVER AUSTRALIA. INTERACTION WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL
    
54. TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADE THE STORM STRUCTURE
    
55. AND FACILITATE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR
    
56. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD COINCIDING WITH INCREASING
    
57. WESTERLY VWS (35-40 KTS) AND ENHANCED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE
    
58. WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BE
    
59. COMPLETE BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24 AS THE CENTER REEMERGES OVER THE
    
60. SOUTHERN OCEAN WITHIN A HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
    
61. 
    
62. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
    
63. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
    
64. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IS A MAXIMUM OF 30 NM AT TAU 24. THE JTWC
    
65. FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
    
66. HIGH CONFIDENCE. RAPID WEAKENING IS INDICATED BY THE JTWC
    
67. MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE OUTSIDE OF HWRF AND GFS. A 5 KTS
    
68. INTENSITY INCREASE IS DEPICTED BY HWRF AND GFS, VICE THE WEAKENING
    
69. TREND DEPICTED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE. THE JTWC INTENSITY
    
70. FORECAST IS ALIGNED CLOSELY TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
    
71. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
    
72. 
    
73. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
74.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
75.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
    
76. NNNN

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ygsj24

IDW24100
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 103
Issued at 5:44 am WST on Saturday 28 March 2026

Headline:
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle (34U) is located inland east of Geraldton and is no
longer a tropical cyclone.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zone: Inland areas between Gascoyne Junction to Dalwallinu.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 5:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 28.4 degrees South 115.9 degrees East,
estimated to be 135 kilometres east northeast of Geraldton and 90 kilometres
north of Morawa.
Movement: south southeast at 41 kilometres per hour.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle lies over the Gascoyne northeast of Dongara and is
weakening as it moves quickly south-southeast. It is expected to continue
tracking quickly south-southeast over land while weakening further during
today. Impacts will extend into the Central West, before spreading further
inland and south across the South West Land Division.

Hazards:
A Severe Weather Warning is current across much of southwest WA east of Perth
and northeast of Albany. Refer to
https://www.bom.gov.au/weather-and-climate/warnings-and-alerts for further
information.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au
or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
No further advices will be issued for this system.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling  13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	5 am March 28	tropical low	28.4S	115.9E	55
+6hr	11 am March 28	tropical low	30.3S	117.5E	75
+12hr	5 pm March 28	tropical low	32.8S	119.7E	85
+18hr	11 pm March 28	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+24hr	5 am March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+36hr	5 pm March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+48hr	5 am March 30	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+60hr	5 pm March 30	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+72hr	5 am March 31	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

pocketbox

Headline:
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle (34U) is located inland east of Geraldton and is no longer a tropical cyclone.

Areas affected:
Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 8:00 am AWST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 45 kilometres of 29.5 degrees South, 116.9 degrees East , 235 kilometres east southeast of Geraldton and 90 kilometres east southeast of Morawa .
Movement: south southeast at 51 kilometres per hour .

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle lies over southwestern WA east-southeast of Geraldton. It is weakening as it moves quickly southeast. Impacts are forecast across the South West Land Division today and a Severe Weather Warning is current for these conditions.

Hazards:
A Severe Weather Warning is current across much of southwest WA east of Perth and northeast of Albany. Refer to https://www.bom.gov.au/weather-and-climate/warnings-and-alerts for further information.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Details:

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 am March 28	tropical low	29.5S	116.9E	45
+6hr	2 pm March 28	tropical low	31.7S	118.8E	70
+12hr	8 pm March 28	tropical low	34.2S	120.8E	85
+18hr	2 am March 29	tropical low	36.5S	122.2E	100
+24hr	8 am March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+36hr	8 pm March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+48hr	8 am March 30	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+60hr	8 pm March 30	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+72hr	8 am March 31	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue
There will be no further Forecast Track Maps issued for this system.

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 041//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 041   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280000Z --- NEAR 30.0S 117.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 33 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 30.0S 117.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 34.6S 120.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 31.1S 118.1E.
28MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
491 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 33 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27P (NARELLE) HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE, LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS EVIDENCED BY ITS
SHEARED CONVECTION SOUTHEASTWARD, SHALLOW VORTEX, AND WEAK
PRESENTATION, DEPICTED BY ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI).
THE SYSTEM WILL NOW TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN
AUSTRALIA. THE TRACK WILL PUSH THE REMAINDER OF 27P EASTWARD UNTIL
TAU 12, WITH GROWING INFLUENCE FROM MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE
CURRENTLY ASSESSED SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BE COMPLETE BY TAU
12, AS WHAT REMAINS OF THE LLCC EJECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN OCEAN. A
HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF 27P EXISTS
IN THE SOUTHERN OCEAN, CHARACTERIZED BY COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND DRY AIR. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 280000Z IS 995 MB.//
NNNN

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：张怡驰、刘涛  签发：许映龙  2026 年 03 月 28 日 10 时
“纳蕾勒”已减弱为热带低压

“纳蕾勒”已于今天凌晨（28日，北京时）减弱为热带低压，中央气象台停止对其监视。

（这是关于“纳蕾勒”的最后一期监测公报）