西澳北部近海四级强热带气旋“纳蕾勒”(34U/27P.Narelle) - 横穿澳大利亚北部再度出海发展，平行海岸西南行进 - BoM:120KT JTWC:125KT

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 038//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 038   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270600Z --- NEAR 23.6S 113.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.6S 113.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 27.4S 115.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 27 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 32.1S 118.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 24.5S 114.1E.
27MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 81
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
270600Z IS 962 MB. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 270900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING
   
4. NR 038//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 23.6S 113.7E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 85 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 81 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH,
    
13. AUSTRALIA
    
14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 12 KTS
    
15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: OVER LAND
    
16. 
    
17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
18. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY
    
19. CLOUD-FILLED EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE LOW-LEVEL
    
20. CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE FULL DIAMETER OF THE EYE MADE
    
21. LANDFALL SHORTLY BEFORE 270600Z IN THE VICINITY OF CORAL BAY. THE
    
22. ANIMATED MSI ALSO SHOWS STABLE STRATIFORM CLOUDS BEING ENTRAINED
    
23. FROM THE WEST INTO THE CORE OF THE VORTEX. THERE HAS BEEN A LACK OF
    
24. MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND WIND SPEED DATA FOLLOWING THE EARLIER 262200Z
    
25. SENTINEL-1A AND RCM-1 PASSES. HOWEVER, THE INITIAL POSITION IS
    
26. PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED MSI AND ANIMATED
    
27. RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE CARNARVON RADAR SITE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
    
28. OF 85 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE LACK OF
    
29. SATELLITE DERIVED ESTIMATES OR NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE
    
30. CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED AS HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE DUE TO
    
31. INCREASING (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), DRY AIR
    
32. ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST, AND TERRAIN INTERACTION.
    
33. 
    
34. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK AND NEARBY SURFACE
    
35. OBSERVATIONS
    
36. 
    
37. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    
38. ANTICYCLONE OVER WEST-CENTRAL AUSTRALIA
    
39. 
    
40. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
41.    PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
    
42.    APRF: T5.0 - 90 KTS
    
43.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 80 KTS AT 270630Z
    
44. 
    
45. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
    
46.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
47.    SST: OVER LAND
    
48.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
    
49.    OTHER FACTORS: TERRAIN INTERACTION AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM
    
50. THE WEST
    
51. 
    
52. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
53.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
54.    INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
    
55.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
56. 
    
57. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
58. 
    
59. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
60. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
61. 
    
62. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 27P (NARELLE) HAS BEGUN ITS TURN TOWARD THE
    
63. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AS IT TRANSITS OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA.
    
64. THE RATE OF ADVANCE IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
    
65. INLAND ALONG A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK, EAST OF GERALDTON AND
    
66. PERTH, THROUGH TAU 24. NOW THAT LANDFALL HAS OCCURRED, LAND
    
67. INTERACTION, INCREASING WESTERLY VWS (UP TO 35-40 KTS), AND FURTHER
    
68. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN RAPID WEAKENING.
    
69. AN INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS FORECAST AT TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM PASSES
    
70. ABOUT 110 NM EAST OF PERTH WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE
    
71. CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A RAPID SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION
    
72. IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AROUND TAU 12 AND COMPLETE BY TAU 24 AS TC
    
73. NARELLE BECOMES A HYBRID WARM-CORE CYCLONE.
    
74. 
    
75. MODEL DISCUSSION: THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
    
76. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
    
77. A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 50 NM AT TAU 24. THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
    
78. WAS USED TO SET THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. RAPID
    
79. WEAKENING IS INDICATED BY THE ENTIRE INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE
    
80. SUITE. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL
    
81. CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED
    
82. WITH RATE OF DECAY OVER LAND.
    
83. 
    
84. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
85.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
86.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
    
87. NNNN

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IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area south of Coral Bay to Denham and inland to Murchison are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 95
Issued at 4:01 pm WST on Friday 27 March 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, category 3, lies inland from the Gascoyne coast south of Coral Bay.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
South of Exmouth to Jurien Bay, including Exmouth, Coral Bay, Carnarvon, Denham and Geraldton, and extending inland to Murchison and Dalwallinu.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 4:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 120 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 165 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 24.3 degrees South 114.0 degrees East, estimated to be 125 kilometres south of Coral Bay and 75 kilometres north northeast of Carnarvon.

Movement: south southeast at 33 kilometres per hour.

Narelle is over land south of Coral Bay, and moving south southeast with severe impacts occurring on the Gascoyne coast. Although Narelle is weakening, severe impacts at Carnarvon remain possible this evening as Narelle passes by to the east.

On Saturday, Narelle is expected to be weakening rapidly as it moves quickly to the south southeast over land, with impacts extending to the Central West and then further inland and south across the South West Land Division. During Saturday the strongest winds are expected to be on the eastern side of the system.

Hazards:
The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle with extreme wind gusts up to 170 km/h has crossed the coast south of Coral Bay, and is moving south southeast. Carnarvon could see wind gusts up to 170 km/h this afternoon.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h are gradually contracting south out of the west Pilbara, extending from Ningaloo down to Carnarvon. DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h are expected to extend south and may reach Denham by this evening, and through inland parts of the Central West and adjacent western Gascoyne later today, possibly as far south as Morawa Saturday morning.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring in coastal areas between west of Onslow and Denham, and extending over adjacent inland areas. Gales will extend south to Kalbarri and inland this evening, possibly as far east as Murchison today. Gales may extend south to Jurien Bay and inland to Dalwallinu during Saturday morning.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible over western parts of the Pilbara, Gascoyne and Central West as Narelle moves past. Areas of INTENSE RAINFALL that may lead to SEVERE FLASH FLOODING have occurred through the western Pilbara today, and will continue further south through the western Gascoyne this evening.

Tides between Exmouth and Denham are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark with LARGE WAVES and MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

A Severe Weather Warning is also current for damaging to locally destructive winds and heavy rainfall on Saturday across much of southwest WA east of Perth and northeast of Albany.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm AWST Friday 27 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	4 pm March 27	3	24.3S	114.0E	30
+6hr	10 pm March 27	2	26.3S	114.6E	50
+12hr	4 am March 28	2	28.3S	115.6E	70
+18hr	10 am March 28	tropical low	30.5S	117.1E	85
+24hr	4 pm March 28	tropical low	32.8S	118.9E	90
+36hr	4 am March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+48hr	4 pm March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+60hr	4 am March 30	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+72hr	4 pm March 30	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

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全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：徐立、曹越男  签发：许映龙  2026 年 03 月 27 日 18 时
“纳蕾勒”强度逐渐减弱

时  间: 3月27日14时（北京时,下同）

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “纳蕾勒”，NARELLE

中心位置: 南纬23.6度，东经113.8度

强度等级: 三级强热带气旋

最大风力: 13级，41米/秒，相当于我国的台风级

中心气压:  956百帕

参考位置:   距离澳大利亚西澳大利亚州埃克斯茅斯南方向约190公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“纳蕾勒”由15级加强至16级又减弱至13级。

预报结论: 预计，“纳蕾勒”将以每小时25公里左右的速度向偏南方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。受其影响，27日夜间，西澳大利亚州西南部沿海将有8-9级大风，“纳蕾勒”中心经过的附近海域或地区风力可达10-11级，阵风12-13级。27日夜间至28日，西澳大利亚州西南部沿海地区将有大到暴雨，局地有大暴雨（100-150毫米）。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年3月27日14时00分）

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IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area south of Coral Bay to Denham and inland to Murchison are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 96
Issued at 4:55 pm WST on Friday 27 March 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Narelle lies inland from the Gascoyne coast east of Carnarvon.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Exmouth to Jurien Bay, including Coral Bay, Carnarvon, Denham and Geraldton, and extending inland to Murchison and Dalwallinu.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
Onslow to Exmouth.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 5:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 24.6 degrees South 114.1 degrees East, estimated to be 55 kilometres northeast of Carnarvon and 160 kilometres north northeast of Denham.

Movement: south southeast at 33 kilometres per hour.

Narelle lies over the Gascoyne east of Carnarvon and is weakening as it moves quickly south-southeast.

On Saturday, the system is expected to continue tracking quickly south-southeast over land while weakening further. Impacts will extend into the Central West, before spreading further inland and south across the South West Land Division. The strongest winds are expected to remain on the eastern side of the system.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h extend from Coral Bay down to Carnarvon and inland to Gascoyne Junction. DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h are expected to extend south and may reach Denham by this evening, and through inland parts of the Central West and adjacent western Gascoyne overnight, possibly as far south as Morawa Saturday morning.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring in coastal areas between Exmouth and Denham, and extending over adjacent inland areas. Gales will extend south to Kalbarri and inland this evening, possibly as far east as Murchison. Gales may extend south to Jurien Bay and inland to Dalwallinu during Saturday morning.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible over western parts of the Pilbara, Gascoyne and Central West as Narelle moves past. Areas of INTENSE RAINFALL that may lead to SEVERE FLASH FLOODING have occurred through the western Pilbara today, and will continue further south through the western Gascoyne this evening.

Tides between Exmouth and Denham are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark with LARGE WAVES and MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

A Severe Weather Warning is also current for damaging to locally destructive winds and heavy rainfall on Saturday across much of southwest WA east of Perth and northeast of Albany.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 pm AWST Friday 27 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	5 pm March 27	2	24.6S	114.1E	30
+6hr	11 pm March 27	2	26.6S	114.8E	50
+12hr	5 am March 28	2	28.7S	115.9E	70
+18hr	11 am March 28	tropical low	30.9S	117.4E	80
+24hr	5 pm March 28	tropical low	33.1S	119.2E	95
+36hr	5 am March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+48hr	5 pm March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+60hr	5 am March 30	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+72hr	5 pm March 30	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

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IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area south of Minilya Roadhouse to Morawa and inland to Murchison are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 97
Issued at 5:56 pm WST on Friday 27 March 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Narelle lies inland from the Gascoyne coast east of Carnarvon.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Coral Bay to Jurien Bay, including Carnarvon, Denham and Geraldton, and extending inland to Murchison and Dalwallinu.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
Exmouth to Coral Bay.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 6:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 24.9 degrees South 114.2 degrees East, estimated to be 55 kilometres east of Carnarvon and 130 kilometres north northeast of Denham.

Movement: south southeast at 37 kilometres per hour.

Narelle lies over the Gascoyne east of Carnarvon and is weakening as it moves quickly south-southeast.

On Saturday, the system is expected to continue tracking quickly south-southeast over land while weakening further. Impacts will extend into the Central West, before spreading further inland and south across the South West Land Division. The strongest winds are expected to remain on the eastern side of the system.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h extend from Minilya Roadhouse to Carnarvon and inland to Gascoyne Junction. DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h are expected to extend south and may reach Overlander Roadhouse during this evening, and through inland parts of the Central West and adjacent western Gascoyne overnight, possibly as far south as Morawa Saturday morning.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring in coastal areas between Coral Bay and Denham, and extending over adjacent inland areas. Gales will extend south to Kalbarri and inland this evening, possibly as far east as Murchison. Gales may extend south to Jurien Bay and inland to Dalwallinu during Saturday morning.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible over western parts of the Pilbara, Gascoyne and Central West as Narelle moves past. Areas of INTENSE RAINFALL that may lead to SEVERE FLASH FLOODING are possible through southern parts of the Gascoyne overnight.

Tides between Exmouth and Denham are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark with LARGE WAVES and MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

A Severe Weather Warning is also current for damaging to locally destructive winds and heavy rainfall on Saturday across much of southwest WA east of Perth and northeast of Albany.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 7:00 pm AWST Friday 27 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	6 pm March 27	2	24.9S	114.2E	30
+6hr	12 am March 28	2	26.9S	114.9E	50
+12hr	6 am March 28	2	29.0S	116.0E	65
+18hr	12 pm March 28	tropical low	31.2S	117.6E	80
+24hr	6 pm March 28	tropical low	33.9S	119.7E	90
+36hr	6 am March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+48hr	6 pm March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+60hr	6 am March 30	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+72hr	6 pm March 30	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

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IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area south of Minilya Roadhouse to Morawa and inland to Murchison are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 98
Issued at 6:58 pm WST on Friday 27 March 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Narelle is located inland to the southeast of Carnarvon and weakening.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Coral Bay to Jurien Bay, including Carnarvon, Denham and Geraldton, and extending inland to Murchison and Dalwallinu.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 7:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 25.2 degrees South 114.3 degrees East, estimated to be 75 kilometres east southeast of Carnarvon and 110 kilometres northeast of Denham.

Movement: south southeast at 36 kilometres per hour.

Narelle lies over the Gascoyne southeast of Carnarvon and is weakening as it moves quickly south-southeast.

On Saturday, the system is expected to continue tracking quickly south-southeast over land while weakening further. Impacts will extend into the Central West, before spreading further inland and south across the South West Land Division. The strongest winds are expected to remain on the eastern side of the system.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h extend from Minilya Roadhouse to Overlander Roadhouse and inland to Gascoyne Junction. DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h are expected to extend south and may reach inland parts of the Central West and adjacent western Gascoyne overnight, and possibly as far south as Morawa early Saturday morning.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring in coastal areas between Coral Bay and south of Overlander Roadhouse and adjacent inland areas to Murchison. Gales will extend south to Kalbarri and inland overnight, and south to Jurien Bay and inland to Dalwallinu during early Saturday morning.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible over western parts of the Pilbara, Gascoyne and Central West overnight. Areas of INTENSE RAINFALL that may lead to SEVERE FLASH FLOODING are possible through central and southern parts of the Gascoyne overnight.

Tides between Exmouth and Denham are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark with LARGE WAVES and MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

A Severe Weather Warning is also current for damaging to locally destructive winds and heavy rainfall on Saturday across much of southwest WA east of Perth and northeast of Albany.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 8:00 pm AWST Friday 27 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	7 pm March 27	2	25.2S	114.3E	30
+6hr	1 am March 28	2	27.3S	115.1E	50
+12hr	7 am March 28	2	29.4S	116.2E	70
+18hr	1 pm March 28	tropical low	31.6S	117.9E	85
+24hr	7 pm March 28	tropical low	34.4S	120.0E	95
+36hr	7 am March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+48hr	7 pm March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+60hr	7 am March 30	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+72hr	7 pm March 30	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

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IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area south of Minilya Roadhouse to Morawa and inland to Murchison are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 99
Issued at 7:57 pm WST on Friday 27 March 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Narelle is located inland to the southeast of Carnarvon and weakening.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Minilya Roadhouse to Jurien Bay, including Carnarvon, Denham and Geraldton, and extending inland to Murchison and Dalwallinu.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
Coral Bay to Minilya Roadhouse.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 8:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 25.5 degrees South 114.4 degrees East, estimated to be 100 kilometres southeast of Carnarvon and 100 kilometres east northeast of Denham.

Movement: south southeast at 36 kilometres per hour.

Narelle lies over the Gascoyne southeast of Carnarvon and is weakening as it moves quickly south-southeast.

On Saturday, the system is expected to continue tracking quickly south-southeast over land while weakening further. Impacts will extend into the Central West, before spreading further inland and south across the South West Land Division. The strongest winds are expected to remain on the eastern side of the system.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h extend from inland of Cape Cuvier to Overlander Roadhouse and inland to Gascoyne Junction. DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h are expected to extend south and may reach inland parts of the Central West and adjacent western Gascoyne overnight, and possibly as far south as Morawa early Saturday morning.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring in coastal areas between Minilya Roadhouse and south of Overlander Roadhouse and adjacent inland areas to Murchison. Gales will extend south to Kalbarri and inland overnight, and south to Jurien Bay and inland to Dalwallinu during early Saturday morning.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible over western parts of the Pilbara, Gascoyne and Central West overnight. Areas of INTENSE RAINFALL that may lead to SEVERE FLASH FLOODING are possible through central and southern parts of the Gascoyne overnight.

Tides between Exmouth and Denham are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark with LARGE WAVES and MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

A Severe Weather Warning is also current for damaging to locally destructive winds and heavy rainfall on Saturday across much of southwest WA east of Perth and northeast of Albany.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm AWST Friday 27 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 pm March 27	2	25.5S	114.4E	35
+6hr	2 am March 28	2	27.5S	115.2E	60
+12hr	8 am March 28	tropical low	29.7S	116.5E	80
+18hr	2 pm March 28	tropical low	32.0S	118.2E	90
+24hr	8 pm March 28	tropical low	34.4S	120.0E	105
+36hr	8 am March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+48hr	8 pm March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+60hr	8 am March 30	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+72hr	8 pm March 30	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

pocketbox

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area inland of Carnarvon to Morawa and inland to Murchison are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 100
Issued at 9:01 pm WST on Friday 27 March 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Narelle is located inland to the east of Denham and weakening.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Minilya Roadhouse to Jurien Bay, including Carnarvon, Denham and Geraldton, and extending inland to Murchison and Dalwallinu.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 9:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 100 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 140 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 25.7 degrees South 114.5 degrees East, estimated to be 100 kilometres east northeast of Denham and 225 kilometres north of Kalbarri.

Movement: south southeast at 34 kilometres per hour.

Narelle lies over the Gascoyne east of Denham and is weakening as it moves quickly south-southeast.

On Saturday, the system is expected to continue tracking quickly south-southeast over land while weakening further. Impacts will extend into the Central West, before spreading further inland and south across the South West Land Division. The strongest winds are expected to remain on the eastern side of the system.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h extend from inland of Carnarvon to Overlander Roadhouse and inland to Gascoyne Junction. DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h are expected to extend east to Murchison and south to inland parts of the Central West overnight, and possibly as far south as Morawa early Saturday morning.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring in areas between Minilya Roadhouse and south of Overlander Roadhouse and east to Murchison. Gales will extend south to Kalbarri and inland overnight, and south to Jurien Bay and inland to Dalwallinu during early Saturday morning.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible over Gascoyne and Central West overnight. Areas of INTENSE RAINFALL that may lead to SEVERE FLASH FLOODING are possible through central and southern parts of the Gascoyne overnight.

Tides between Exmouth and Denham are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark with LARGE WAVES and MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

A Severe Weather Warning is also current for damaging to locally destructive winds and heavy rainfall on Saturday across much of southwest WA east of Perth and northeast of Albany.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 am AWST Saturday 28 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	9 pm March 27	2	25.7S	114.5E	35
+6hr	3 am March 28	2	27.8S	115.4E	60
+12hr	9 am March 28	tropical low	29.9S	116.7E	80
+18hr	3 pm March 28	tropical low	32.3S	118.5E	90
+24hr	9 pm March 28	tropical low	35.1S	120.5E	100
+36hr	9 am March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+48hr	9 pm March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+60hr	9 am March 30	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+72hr	9 pm March 30	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

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WTXS31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 039//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 039   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271200Z --- NEAR 25.4S 114.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 114.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 29.7S 116.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 29 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 34.6S 120.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 26.5S 114.8E.
27MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
186 NM SOUTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
271200Z IS 977 MB. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 271500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING
   
4. NR 039//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 25.4S 114.2E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 186 NM SOUTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
    
18. RAPIDLY DECAYING CYCLONE WITH COLLAPSING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO
    
19. THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE ANIMATED
    
20. EIR CONTINUES TO SHOW STABLE STRATIFORM CLOUDS BEING ENTRAINED FROM
    
21. THE WEST INTO THE CORE OF THE VORTEX. A 271048Z WSFM 89 GHZ
    
22. MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMED THE ASYMMETRIC NATURE OF THE CONVECTION
    
23. WITH EXPOSED CLOUD LINES ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM
    
24. WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
    
25. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE
    
26. CARNARVON RADAR SITE SHOWING AN INCREASINGLY RAGGED LLCC, PASSING
    
27. JUST EAST OF SHARK BAY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS ASSESSED
    
28. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RAPIDLY DECAYING STRUCTURE AND A
    
29. LACK OF WIND OBSERVATIONS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY. THE CURRENT
    
30. ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED AS HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE DUE TO HIGH
    
31. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST, AND
    
32. TERRAIN INTERACTION.
    
33. 
    
34. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
35. 
    
36. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    
37. ANTICYCLONE OVER WEST-CENTRAL AUSTRALIA
    
38. 
    
39. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
40.    PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
    
41.    CIMSS D-MINT: 77 KTS AT 271006Z
    
42.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 75 KTS AT 271120Z
    
43. 
    
44. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
    
45.    VWS: 25-30 KTS
    
46.    SST: OVER LAND
    
47.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
    
48.    OTHER FACTORS: TERRAIN INTERACTION AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM
    
49. THE WEST
    
50. 
    
51. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
52.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
53.    INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
    
54.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
55. 
    
56. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
57. 
    
58. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
59. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
60. 
    
61. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 27P (NARELLE) IS ACCELERATING TOWARD THE
    
62. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LATITUDE
    
63. WESTERLIES AS IT TRANSITS ACROSS WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM IS
    
64. FORECAST TO TRACK ABOUT 70 NM EAST OF GERALDTON AROUND 272000Z
    
65. BEFORE EJECTING OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA BY TAU
    
66. 24. LAND INTERACTION, INCREASING WESTERLY VWS (UP TO 35-40 KTS BY
    
67. TAU 12), AND FURTHER DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT
    
68. IN CONTINUED RAPID WEAKENING. AN INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS FORECAST AT
    
69. TAU 12 WITH FURTHER WEAKENING TO 35 KTS AT TAU 24 WITH GALE-FORCE
    
70. WINDS PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. TC NARELLE WILL
    
71. IMMINENTLY BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION, BECOMING FULLY SUBTROPICAL
    
72. NO LATER THAN TAU 24.
    
73. 
    
74. MODEL DISCUSSION: THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
    
75. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
    
76. A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 45 NM AT TAU 24. THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
    
77. WAS USED TO SET THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AND IS PLACED WITH HIGH
    
78. CONFIDENCE. RAPID WEAKENING IS INDICATED BY THE ENTIRE INTENSITY
    
79. MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED
    
80. SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM
    
81. CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OBSERVED RAPID DECAY AND GIVEN THE
    
82. UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH RATE OF WEAKENING OVER LAND.
    
83. 
    
84. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
85.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
86.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
    
87. NNNN

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pocketbox

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area Gascoyne Junction to Morawa and inland to Murchison are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 101
Issued at 11:43 pm WST on Friday 27 March 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Narelle is located inland to the southeast of Denham and weakening.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Carnarvon to Jurien Bay, including Denham and Geraldton, and extending inland to Murchison and Dalwallinu.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
Minilya Roadhouse to Carnarvon.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 11:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 100 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 140 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 45 kilometres of 26.4 degrees South 114.8 degrees East, estimated to be 135 kilometres east southeast of Denham and 160 kilometres north northeast of Kalbarri.

Movement: south southeast at 36 kilometres per hour.

Narelle lies over the Gascoyne southeast of Denham and is weakening as it moves quickly south-southeast.

The system is expected to continue tracking quickly south-southeast over land today while weakening further. Impacts will extend into the Central West, before spreading further inland and south across the South West Land Division. The strongest winds are expected to remain on the eastern side of the system.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h extend from Wooramel Roadhouse and inland to Gascoyne Junction, extending south to inland parts of the Central West, extending possibly as far south as Morawa early Saturday morning.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 110 km/h are occurring in areas between Carnarvon to Kalbarri and inland parts, extending south to Jurien Bay and inland to Dalwallinu during early Saturday morning.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible over Gascoyne and Central West.

Tides will be higher than normal between Carnarvon and Denham. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

A Severe Weather Warning is also current for damaging to locally destructive winds and heavy rainfall across much of southwest WA east of Perth and northeast of Albany.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am AWST Saturday 28 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	11 pm March 27	2	26.4S	114.8E	45
+6hr	5 am March 28	2	28.5S	115.8E	70
+12hr	11 am March 28	tropical low	30.7S	117.3E	85
+18hr	5 pm March 28	tropical low	33.2S	119.2E	95
+24hr	11 pm March 28	tropical low	35.8S	121.0E	85
+36hr	11 am March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+48hr	11 pm March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+60hr	11 am March 30	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+72hr	11 pm March 30	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX