TCFA - 菲律宾以东93W - 12.0N 125.9E - JMA:TD[W]

garychan1979

天氣概況

一股東北季候風會在未來兩三日影響廣東沿岸，該區早上稍涼，
而覆蓋華南的雲帶會逐漸轉薄。受乾燥的東北季候風補充影響，
週末至下週初華南普遍晴朗，內陸地區日夜溫差較大。
預料現時位於雅蒲島以北的廣闊低壓區會在未來數日逐漸發展並移向菲律賓一帶。

Ragasa

ABPW10 PGTW 030030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/030030Z-030600ZDEC2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.0N 135.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 134.4E, APPROXIMATELY 621 NM EAST
OF LEGAZPI. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS),
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST OVER THE PHILIPPINES WITH GFS SHOWING A MORE
AGGRESSIVE INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES HAVE 93W MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD AND ECENS SHOWING HIGHER INTENSIFICATION THAN GEFS.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM
AND REMOVED 33W (KOTO) INFORMATION DUE TO FINAL WARNING EXPIRATION.//
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Enceladus

TPPN12 PGTW 030845
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (NW OF YAP)
B. 03/0830Z
C. 14.37N
D. 132.17E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

BALMER

Enceladus

TPPN12 PGTW 031814
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (NW OF YAP)
B. 03/1740Z
C. 12.41N
D. 132.03E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5 STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES LOCATED
UNDER COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.5. MET YIELDS 1.5. PT YIELDS
1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

HUYNH

Enceladus

ECENS 0300Z

红豆棒冰冰

HKO升格TD

香 港 天 文 台 於 2025 年 12 月 04 日 09 時 45 分 發 出 之 天 氣 報 告

一 股 清 勁 至 強 風 程 度 的 東 北 季 候 風 正 為 廣 東 沿 岸 帶
來 稍 涼 的 天 氣 。 本 港 今 早 氣 溫 普 遍 較 昨 日 低 兩 度 左
右 。 而 一 道 雲 帶 覆 蓋 沿 岸 地 區 。

此 外 ， 位 於 菲 律 賓 以 東 海 域 的 低 壓 區 已 增 強 為 熱 帶
低 氣 壓 。 在 上 午 十 時 ， 該 熱 帶 低 氣 壓 集 結 在 馬 尼 拉
之 東 南 偏 東 約 1010 公 里 ， 預 料 向 西 南 偏 西 移 動 ， 時
速 約 22 公 里 ， 移 向 菲 律 賓 中 南 部 一 帶 。

本 港 地 區 今 日 天 氣 預 測

大 致 多 雲 。 日 間 短 暫 時 間 有 陽 光 及 乾 燥 。 吹 和 緩 至
清 勁 東 至 東 北 風 ， 初 時 離 岸 及 高 地 間 中 吹 強 風 。

展 望 ： 未 來 數 日 天 晴 ， 日 間 乾 燥 ， 日 夜 溫 差 較 大 。

pocketbox

WTPH20 RPMM 040000
SECURITE

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING FOR SHIPPING NR. 01
ISSUED AT 0000UTC, 04 DECEMBER 2025 BY DOST-PAGASA, PHILIPPINES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004HPA
AT 0000UTC, PSTN 12.7N 130.6E MOV WSW 10KT
MXWD 25KT NEAR CTR

12-HOUR FCST VLD AT 041200UTC
PSTN 11.7N 128.4E, PRES 1004HPA, MWXD 25KT
24-HOUR FCST VLD AT 050000UTC
PSTN 11.1N 126.7E, PRES 1002HPA, MWXD 30KT
36-HOUR FCST VLD AT 051200UTC
PSTN 10.8N 125.9E, PRES 1002HPA, MWXD 30KT
48-HOUR FCST VLD AT 060000UTC
PSTN 10.4N 124.7E, PRES 1002HPA, MWXD 30KT
60-HOUR FCST VLD AT 061200UTC
PSTN 10.3N 123.9E, PRES 1004HPA, MWXD 25KT
72-HOUR FCST VLD AT 070000UTC
PSTN 10.3N 123.0E, PRES 1004HPA, MWXD 25KT
96-HOUR FCST VLD AT 080000UTC
PSTN 10.4N 121.3E, PRES 1004HPA, MWXD 25KT
120-HOUR FCST VLD AT 090000UTC
PSTN 10.5N 117.9E, PRES 1002HPA, MWXD 30KT

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NM OF 12.7N 130.6E, SEND 3-HOURLY WX REPORTS.
NEXT WARNING 040600UTC
WEATHER MANILA=

桑美和伊欧凯

Enceladus 发表于 2025-12-4 03:01
ECENS 0300Z

大部分成员支持气压1000百帕以下

Enceladus

桑美和伊欧凯 发表于 2025-12-4 13:34
大部分成员支持气压1000百帕以下

93W经过一周的努力发展，各大模型的整体预期抬升了50毫巴
ECENS 0318Z

pocketbox

ABPW10 PGTW 040600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/040600Z-050600ZDEC2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.9N 131.UE IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 130.9E, APPROXIMATELY 417 NM
EAST OF LEGAZPI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
WEAK CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC. A 12040130Z ASCAT-C PASS
REVEALS AN ASYMMETRICAL WIND FIELD OF 25-30 KNOTS TO THE WEST AND
NORTH OF THE LLCC, WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING NEAR THE LLCC.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 KNOTS OR LESS), GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93W WILL SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.           
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.4S 149.6W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1S 150.5W, APPROXIMATELY 44 NM
NORTHWEST OF FARE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
AND A 040212Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A HIGHLY ELONGATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION HEAVILY
SHEARED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(25 KNOTS OR GREATER), STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND
COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (25-26 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99P WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSIT POLEWARD OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO
33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.//
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