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本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-3-27 14:30 编辑
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0622 UTC 27/03/2026
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Identifier: 34U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 23.6S
Longitude: 113.8E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: south (173 deg)
Speed of Movement: 13 knots (23 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots (150 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots (205 km/h)
Central Pressure: 956 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 130 nm (240 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/5.0/W0.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 999 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm (185 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 27/1200: 25.7S 114.3E: 025 (050): 060 (110): 973
+12: 27/1800: 27.6S 115.1E: 035 (070): 050 (095): 980
+18: 28/0000: 29.8S 116.5E: 045 (085): 040 (075): 986
+24: 28/0600: 32.0S 118.3E: 050 (095): 035 (065): 989
+36: 28/1800: : : :
+48: 29/0600: : : :
+60: 29/1800: : : :
+72: 30/0600: : : :
+96: 31/0600: : : :
+120: 01/0600: : : :
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle crossed the coast at about 0130 UTC just south
of Coral Bay.
Location was determined from animated satellite imagery and Carnarvon radar
with good confidence. Learmonth radar is not available. Satellite imagery is
showing a slowly filling in eye with a warming and shrinking surrounding ring.
Microwave imagery indicated an eye replacement cycle occurred last night, which
resulted in a decrease in the eye size.
Dvorak analysis: Over land and not applicable. However, since Narelle has just
crossed the coast it is DT 4.5, with an eye pattern with LG surrounding
temperature, OW/LG eye and no minimum width ring temperature, and a 0.5
adjustment for an elongated eye. MET is 3.5 with a W+ trend, PAT of 4.0. FT/CI
of 4.5/5.0. Recent objective guidance at 0520 UTC: (1-min means): DPRINT 94 kn.
Thevenard Island observed gusts to 88 kn around 1740UTC, with a mean 10 min
mean up around 64kn at 1700 UTC. Learmonth observed a 108 gust at 22:31 UTC.
Intensity has been set at 80 knots (10-min), which is in line with subjective
Dvorak and within objective estimate error bounds.
SSTs are now irrelevant with the track being entirely over land. Mid-level and
upper level shear are on the increasing trend, with upper shear being analysed
as WSW 15 to 20 knots. Narelle's recent weakening is mostly due to interactions
with the land.
As Narelle moves south over land wind shear is forecast to increase further.
Narelle is being steered by a mid-level ridge to the east. The ridge erodes due
to an approaching upper trough, with Narelle expected to move to the south
southeast and then accelerate as the trough gets closer later today and during
Saturday. This faster speed of motion is expected to enhance the winds to the
northeast of the system as it tracks over land, with winds to the northeast of
the system being stronger than the standard inland decay rate.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it moves back over open water and reintensifies.
IDW24100
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: Transmitters serving the area south of Exmouth to Denham and inland to Murchison are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 93
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Friday 27 March 2026
Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, category 3, has crossed the coast south of Coral Bay.
Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
West of Onslow to Jurien Bay, including Exmouth, Coral Bay, Carnarvon, Denham and Geraldton, and extending inland to Murchison and Dalwallinu.
Watch Zone
None.
Cancelled Zone
None.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 2:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 150 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 205 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 23.6 degrees South 113.8 degrees East, estimated to be 55 kilometres south of Coral Bay and 140 kilometres north of Carnarvon.
Movement: south at 23 kilometres per hour.
Narelle is now over land south of Coral Bay, and moving south southeast with severe impacts occurring on the northern Gascoyne and far western Pilbara coasts. Although Narelle is weakening, severe impacts at Carnarvon remain possible this afternoon as Narelle passes by to the east.
On Saturday, Narelle is expected to be weakening rapidly as it moves quickly to the south southeast over land, with impacts extending to the Central West and then further inland and south across the South West Land Division. During Saturday the strongest winds are expected to be on the eastern side of the system.
Hazards:
The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle with extreme wind gusts up to 205 km/h has crossed the coast south of Coral Bay, and is moving south southeast. Carnarvon could see wind gusts up to 190 km/h this afternoon.
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h are occurring along the west Pilbara coast between south of Exmouth and Cape Cuvier. DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h are expected to extend south to Carnarvon and then possibly to Denham this afternoon, and through inland parts of the Central West and adjacent western Gascoyne later today, possibly as far south as Morawa Saturday morning.
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring in coastal areas between west of Onslow and south of Carnarvon, and extending over adjacent inland areas. Gales will extend south to Denham this afternoon and further south to Kalbarri and inland, possibly as far east as Murchison today. Gales may extend south to Jurien Bay and inland to Dalwallinu during Saturday morning.
HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible over western parts of the Pilbara, Gascoyne and Central West as Narelle moves past. Areas of INTENSE RAINFALL that may lead to SEVERE FLASH FLOODING have occurred through the western Pilbara west of Onslow this morning, and will continue to extend further south into the northwestern Gascoyne today.
Coastal residents between Onslow and Denham are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone moves south down the Gascoyne coast. Tides will rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.
A Severe Weather Warning is also current for damaging to locally destructive winds and heavy rainfall on Saturday across much of southwest WA east of Perth and northeast of Albany.
Recommended Action:
DFES advises:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.
Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm AWST Friday 27 March.
Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone
| | Time (AWST) | Intensity Category | Latitude
(decimal deg.) | Longitude
(decimal deg.) | Estimated Position
Accuracy (km) | | 0hr | 2 pm March 27 | 3 | 23.6S | 113.8E | 30 | | +6hr | 8 pm March 27 | 2 | 25.7S | 114.3E | 50 | | +12hr | 2 am March 28 | 2 | 27.6S | 115.1E | 70 | | +18hr | 8 am March 28 | tropical low | 29.8S | 116.5E | 80 | | +24hr | 2 pm March 28 | tropical low | 32.0S | 118.3E | 90 | | +36hr | 2 am March 29 | tropical low | XXX | XXX | XXX | | +48hr | 2 pm March 29 | tropical low | XXX | XXX | XXX | | +60hr | 2 am March 30 | tropical low | XXX | XXX | XXX | | +72hr | 2 pm March 30 | tropical low | XXX | XXX | XXX |
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