西澳北部近海四级强热带气旋“纳蕾勒”(34U/27P.Narelle) - 横穿澳大利亚北部再度出海发展，平行海岸西南行进 - BoM:120KT JTWC:125KT

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IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Mardie and Coral Bay are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 77
Issued at 9:51 pm WST on Thursday 26 March 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, category 4, is currently impacting the west Pilbara coast with severe impacts extending to the Gascoyne coast Friday morning.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Whim Creek to Dongara, including Karratha, Onslow, Exmouth, Coral Bay, Carnarvon, Denham and Geraldton, and extending inland to Pannawonica, Murchison and Yalgoo.

Watch Zone
South of Dongara to Jurien Bay and extending inland to Dalwallinu.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 10:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 175 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 250 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 20 kilometres of 20.6 degrees South 114.4 degrees East, estimated to be 255 kilometres west of Karratha and 155 kilometres north of Exmouth.

Movement: southwest at 20 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, category 4, is forecast to strengthen further overnight as it approaches the North West Cape.

Narelle is moving southwest, roughly parallel to the Pilbara coast. Narelle is larger than usual and although the cyclone is located north of the Pilbara, gales and destructive winds are occurring over the coast. A Severe Weather Warning is also current for damaging winds east of Whim Creek and for inland parts of the Pilbara.

Early Friday, Narelle will turn towards the south, likely passing close to the North West Cape as a category 4 cyclone. Severe impacts will extend from the western Pilbara coast to the Gascoyne coast overnight, and then extending south to Carnarvon and Denham during Friday.

On Saturday, Narelle is expected to be weakening as it moves quickly to the south southeast, with impacts extending to the Central West and then further inland and south across the South West Land Division. During Saturday the strongest winds are expected to be on the eastern side of the system.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS up to 275 km/h may develop between Exmouth and Onslow overnight as Narelle moves closer to the North West Cape, and then extend down the west coast to Cape Cuvier during Friday morning. Carnarvon could see wind gusts up to 200 km/h during Friday, and wind gusts up to 180 km/h could extend to Denham late Friday or early Saturday.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h are occurring along the Pilbara coast between Mardie and west of Onslow, and are expected to extend west to Exmouth overnight. DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h are expected to extend south to Carnarvon and then to Denham during Friday morning and afternoon, and may extend to Kalbarri and inland parts later on Friday and possibly as far south as Morawa Saturday morning.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring near the coast between Whim Creek and Exmouth. Gales will extend further south to Kalbarri and inland, possibly as far east as Murchison, during Friday. Gales may extend south to Jurien Bay and inland to Dalwallinu during Saturday morning.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible in western parts of the Pilbara and Gascoyne as Narelle moves past. Areas of INTENSE RAINFALL that may lead to SEVERE FLASH FLOODING is likely to develop about the western Pilbara west of about Onslow overnight and Friday morning, before extending further south into the northwestern Gascoyne later Friday morning.

Coastal residents between Onslow and Denham are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone moves south down the Gascoyne coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Tides will be higher than normal between Port Hedland and Onslow. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm AWST Thursday 26 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	10 pm March 26	4	20.6S	114.4E	20
+6hr	4 am March 27	4	21.7S	113.7E	45
+12hr	10 am March 27	3	23.0S	113.5E	65
+18hr	4 pm March 27	3	24.6S	113.7E	70
+24hr	10 pm March 27	3	26.4S	114.3E	75
+36hr	10 am March 28	tropical low	30.7S	116.9E	105
+48hr	10 pm March 28	tropical low	35.2S	120.4E	130
+60hr	10 am March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+72hr	10 pm March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

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WTXS31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 035//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 035   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261200Z --- NEAR 20.4S 114.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 114.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 22.6S 113.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 25.8S 114.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 23 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 30.0S 116.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 26 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 34.5S 119.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 114.4E.
26MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 117 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 261200Z
IS 944 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 261500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING
   
4. NR 035//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 20.4S 114.6E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 115 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 117 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH,
    
13. AUSTRALIA
    
14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
    
15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 38 FEET
    
16. 
    
17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
18. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY
    
19. LARGE (40-45 NM) EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY NEARLY SYMMETRIC BANDS
    
20. OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 261021Z F17 SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
    
21. SHOWS THAT THE VORTEX HAS RETAINED ITS OVERALL STRUCTURE OVER THE
    
22. PAST 6 HOURS, WITH A LARGE AND SYMMETRIC MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE
    
23. 37 GHZ VERSION OF THE SAME MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED THAT THE
    
24. OUTER-EYEWALL THAT WAS PRESENT IN EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY HAS
    
25. BECOME THE PRIMARY STRUCTURE, SUGGESTING THAT THE EYEWALL
    
26. REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) HAS COMPLETED OR IS CLOSE TO COMPLETION. THE
    
27. ERC IS LIKELY THE REASON FOR THE CURRENT BROAD NATURE OF THE EYE.
    
28. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
    
29. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM LEARMONTH AND ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY
    
30. SHOWING THE CENTER POSITION OF THE BROAD EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
    
31. OF 115 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY
    
32. DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
    
33. THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED AS FAVORABLE DUE TO LOW
    
34. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
    
35. AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
    
36. 
    
37. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK AND NEARBY SURFACE
    
38. OBSERVATIONS
    
39. 
    
40. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    
41. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA
    
42. 
    
43. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
44.    PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
    
45.    APRF: T5.0 - 90 KTS
    
46.    CIMSS SATCON: 117 KTS AT 261021Z
    
47.    CIMSS ADT: 119 KTS AT 261200Z
    
48.    CIMSS AIDT: 113 KTS AT 261200Z
    
49.    CIMSS D-MINT: 114 KTS AT 261020Z
    
50.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 111 KTS AT 261200Z
    
51. 
    
52. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
53.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
    
54.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
55.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
56. 
    
57. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
58.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
59.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
60.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
61. 
    
62. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
63. 
    
64. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
65. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
66. 
    
67. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 27P (NARELLE) HAS CONTINUED ON ITS
    
68. SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING
    
69. INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST. LANDFALL ALONG THE EXMOUTH
    
70. PENINSULA IS EXPECTED JUST AFTER TAU 6, RESULTING IN A NEAR-DIRECT
    
71. HIT OF LEARMONTH BY THE MOST INTENSE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT. THE
    
72. SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE STR AXIS AROUND TAU 12, THEN TURN
    
73. TO A SOUTHWARD TRACK THAT BECOMES SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD BY TAU 24.
    
74. AFTER TAU 24, TC NARELLE WILL ACCELERATE INLAND, EAST OF GERALDTON
    
75. AND PERTH, BEFORE EMERGING BACK OVER WATER SOUTH OF WESTERN
    
76. AUSTRALIA NEAR TAU 48. THE SYSTEM IS AT OR NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY,
    
77. WITH ONLY AROUND 6 HOURS UNTIL LAND INTERACTION AND COOLING SEA
    
78. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL INITIATE THE RAPID WEAKENING PHASE.
    
79. FURTHER WEAKENING WILL BE PROMOTED BY INCREASING WESTERLY VWS FROM
    
80. TAU 24 ONWARD. SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AROUND
    
81. TAU 36 AND COMPLETE BY TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF
    
82. PERTH.
    
83. 
    
84. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
    
85. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 40 NM
    
86. AT TAU 24 WHICH OPENS UP TO 120 NM AT TAU 48 AND ALONG-TRACK SPREAD
    
87. REMAINS MINIMAL. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE
    
88. TES1 MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODEL INTENSITY
    
89. GUIDANCE AGREES ON WEAKENING THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
    
90. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE CONSENSUS WITH
    
91. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AS A RESULT OF INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE RATE
    
92. OF DECAY OVER LAND.
    
93. 
    
94. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
95.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
96.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
    
97. NNNN

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IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Mardie and Cape Cuvier are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 78
Issued at 10:56 pm WST on Thursday 26 March 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, category 4, is currently impacting the west Pilbara coast with severe impacts extending to the Gascoyne coast Friday morning.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Whim Creek to Dongara, including Karratha, Onslow, Exmouth, Coral Bay, Carnarvon, Denham and Geraldton, and extending inland to Pannawonica, Murchison and Yalgoo.

Watch Zone
South of Dongara to Jurien Bay and extending inland to Dalwallinu.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 11:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 175 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 250 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 20.5 degrees South 114.4 degrees East, estimated to be 145 kilometres north northwest of Onslow and 160 kilometres north of Exmouth.

Movement: southwest at 18 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, category 4, is forecast to strengthen further overnight as it approaches the North West Cape.

Narelle is moving southwest, roughly parallel to the Pilbara coast. Narelle is larger than usual and although the cyclone is located north of the Pilbara, gales and destructive winds are occurring over the coast. A Severe Weather Warning is also current for damaging wind gusts east of Whim Creek and for inland parts of the Pilbara.

Early Friday, Narelle will turn towards the south, likely passing close to the North West Cape as a category 4 cyclone. Severe impacts will extend from the western Pilbara coast to the Gascoyne coast early morning Friday, and then extending south to Carnarvon and Denham during Friday.

On Saturday, Narelle is expected to be weakening as it moves quickly to the south southeast, with impacts extending to the Central West and then further inland and south across the South West Land Division. During Saturday the strongest winds are expected to be on the eastern side of the system.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS up to 275 km/h may develop between Exmouth and Onslow overnight as Narelle moves closer to the North West Cape, and then extend down the west coast to Cape Cuvier during Friday morning. Carnarvon could see wind gusts up to 200 km/h during Friday, and wind gusts up to 180 km/h could extend to Denham late Friday or early Saturday.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h are occurring along the Pilbara coast between Mardie and west of Onslow, and are expected to extend west to Exmouth overnight. DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h are expected to extend south to Carnarvon and then to Denham during Friday morning and afternoon, and may extend to Kalbarri and inland parts later on Friday and possibly as far south as Morawa Saturday morning.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring near the coast between Whim Creek and Exmouth. Gales will extend further south to Kalbarri and inland, possibly as far east as Murchison, during Friday. Gales may extend south to Jurien Bay and inland to Dalwallinu during Saturday morning.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible in western parts of the Pilbara and Gascoyne as Narelle moves past. Areas of INTENSE RAINFALL that may lead to SEVERE FLASH FLOODING is likely to develop about the western Pilbara west of about Onslow overnight and Friday morning, before extending further south into the northwestern Gascoyne later Friday morning.

Coastal residents between Onslow and Denham are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone moves south down the Gascoyne coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Tides will be higher than normal between Port Hedland and Onslow. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 am AWST Friday 27 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	11 pm March 26	4	20.5S	114.4E	30
+6hr	5 am March 27	4	21.9S	113.7E	50
+12hr	11 am March 27	3	23.3S	113.5E	70
+18hr	5 pm March 27	3	24.9S	113.8E	75
+24hr	11 pm March 27	2	26.8S	114.4E	75
+36hr	11 am March 28	tropical low	31.1S	117.2E	110
+48hr	11 pm March 28	tropical low	35.6S	120.7E	125
+60hr	11 am March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+72hr	11 pm March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

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IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Mardie and Cape Cuvier are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 79
Issued at 11:49 pm WST on Thursday 26 March 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, category 4, is currently impacting the west Pilbara coast with severe impacts extending to the Gascoyne coast Friday morning.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Whim Creek to Jurien Bay, including Karratha, Onslow, Exmouth, Coral Bay, Carnarvon, Denham and Geraldton, and extending inland to Pannawonica, Murchison and Dalwallinu.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 12:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 185 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 260 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 20.6 degrees South 114.3 degrees East, estimated to be 145 kilometres northwest of Onslow and 150 kilometres north of Exmouth.

Movement: southwest at 17 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, category 4, is forecast to strengthen further overnight as it approaches the North West Cape.

Narelle is moving southwest, roughly parallel to the Pilbara coast. Narelle is larger than usual and although the cyclone is located north of the Pilbara, gales and destructive winds are occurring over the coast. A Severe Weather Warning is also current for damaging wind gusts east of Whim Creek and for inland parts of the Pilbara.

Early Friday, Narelle will turn towards the south, likely passing close to the North West Cape as a category 4 cyclone. Severe impacts will extend from the western Pilbara coast to the Gascoyne coast early morning Friday, and then extending south to Carnarvon and Denham during Friday.

On Saturday, Narelle is expected to be weakening as it moves quickly to the south southeast, with impacts extending to the Central West and then further inland and south across the South West Land Division. During Saturday the strongest winds are expected to be on the eastern side of the system.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS up to 275 km/h may develop between Exmouth and Onslow overnight as Narelle moves closer to the North West Cape, and then extend down the west coast to Cape Cuvier during Friday morning. Carnarvon could see wind gusts up to 200 km/h during Friday, and wind gusts up to 180 km/h could extend to Denham late Friday or early Saturday.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h are occurring along the Pilbara coast between Mardie and west of Onslow, and are expected to extend west to Exmouth early Friday morning. DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h are expected to extend south to Carnarvon and then to Denham during Friday morning and afternoon, and may extend to Kalbarri and inland parts later on Friday and possibly as far south as Morawa Saturday morning.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring near the coast between Whim Creek and North West Cape, extending to Exmouth and Learmonth. Gales will extend further south to Kalbarri and inland, possibly as far east as Murchison, during Friday. Gales may extend south to Jurien Bay and inland to Dalwallinu during Saturday morning.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible in western parts of the Pilbara and Gascoyne as Narelle moves past. Areas of INTENSE RAINFALL that may lead to SEVERE FLASH FLOODING is likely to develop about the western Pilbara west of about Onslow overnight and Friday morning, before extending further south into the northwestern Gascoyne later Friday morning.

Coastal residents between Onslow and Denham are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone moves south down the Gascoyne coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Tides will be higher than normal between Port Hedland and Onslow. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 1:00 am AWST Friday 27 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	12 am March 27	4	20.6S	114.3E	30
+6hr	6 am March 27	4	22.1S	113.6E	50
+12hr	12 pm March 27	3	23.5S	113.5E	70
+18hr	6 pm March 27	3	25.2S	113.9E	75
+24hr	12 am March 28	2	27.1S	114.6E	80
+36hr	12 pm March 28	tropical low	31.4S	117.5E	115
+48hr	12 am March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+60hr	12 pm March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+72hr	12 am March 30	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

莎莎

Narelle 南半球的旋風.  現在強度重新增強

型態已經維持不錯





SAR  6小時前已經有Cat.3

pocketbox

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Mardie and Cape Cuvier are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 80
Issued at 0:57 am WST on Friday 27 March 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, category 4, is currently impacting the west Pilbara coast with severe impacts extending to the Gascoyne coast Friday morning.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Jurien Bay to Whim Creek, including Geraldton, Kalbarri, Denham, Carnarvon, Exmouth, Onslow and Karratha.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 1:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 185 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 260 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 20.9 degrees South 114.2 degrees East, estimated to be 125 kilometres northwest of Onslow and 115 kilometres north of Exmouth.

Movement: southwest at 19 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, category 4 is approaching the North West Cape tonight.

Narelle located north of Exmouth and is turning to the south. It is expect to pass close to the North West Cape as a category 4 cyclone during Friday morning. Severe impacts will extend from the western Pilbara coast to the Gascoyne coast early morning Friday, and then extending south to Carnarvon and Denham during Friday.

Narelle is larger than usual and gales may still occur over the central Pilbara coast. A Severe Weather Warning is also current for damaging wind gusts east of Whim Creek and for inland parts of the Pilbara.

On Saturday, Narelle is expected to be weakening as it moves quickly to the south southeast, with impacts extending to the Central West and then further inland and south across the South West Land Division. During Saturday the strongest winds are expected to be on the eastern side of the system.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS up to 275 km/h may develop between Exmouth and Onslow overnight as Narelle moves closer to the North West Cape, and then extend down the west coast to Cape Cuvier during Friday morning. Carnarvon could see wind gusts up to 200 km/h Friday afternoon, and wind gusts up to 180 km/h could extend to Denham late Friday or early Saturday.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h are occurring along the Pilbara coast between Mardie and the North West Cape, including Exmouth and extend south along the Ningaloo coast early Friday morning. DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h are expected to extend south to Carnarvon and then to Denham during Friday morning and afternoon, and may extend to Kalbarri and inland parts later on Friday and possibly as far south as Morawa Saturday morning.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring near the coast between Whim Creek and North West Cape, including Exmouth. Gales will extend south Carnarvon and Denham Friday morning and further south to Kalbarri and inland, possibly as far east as Murchison, during Friday. Gales may extend south to Jurien Bay and inland to Dalwallinu during Saturday morning.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible in western parts of the Pilbara and Gascoyne as Narelle moves past. Areas of INTENSE RAINFALL that may lead to SEVERE FLASH FLOODING is likely to develop about the western Pilbara west of about Onslow overnight and Friday morning, before extending further south into the northwestern Gascoyne later Friday morning.

Coastal residents between Onslow and Denham are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone moves south down the Gascoyne coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Tides will be higher than normal between Port Hedland and Onslow. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am AWST Friday 27 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	1 am March 27	4	20.9S	114.2E	30
+6hr	7 am March 27	4	22.4S	113.6E	50
+12hr	1 pm March 27	3	23.8S	113.6E	70
+18hr	7 pm March 27	3	25.5S	114.0E	75
+24hr	1 am March 28	2	27.4S	114.8E	80
+36hr	1 pm March 28	tropical low	31.8S	117.8E	120
+48hr	1 am March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+60hr	1 pm March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+72hr	1 am March 30	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

Ragasa

IDW24100
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Mardie and Denham are requested to
USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 81
Issued at 2:02 am WST on Friday 27 March 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, category 4, is currently impacting the west
Pilbara coast with severe impacts extending to the Gascoyne coast Friday
morning.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Whim Creek to Jurien Bay, including Karratha, Onslow, Exmouth,
Coral Bay, Carnarvon, Denham and Geraldton, and extending inland to
Pannawonica, Murchison and Dalwallinu.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 2:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 185 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 260 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 21.1 degrees South 114.2 degrees East,
estimated to be 115 kilometres west northwest of Onslow and 95 kilometres north
of Exmouth.
Movement: southwest at 18 kilometres per hour.

Narelle is located north of Exmouth and is turning to the south. It is expect
to pass close to the North West Cape as a category 4 cyclone this morning.
Severe impacts are expected from the western Pilbara coast to the Gascoyne
coast early this morning, and then extending south to Carnarvon and Denham
during today.

Narelle is larger than usual and gales may still occur over the central Pilbara
coast. A Severe Weather Warning is also current for damaging wind gusts east of
Whim Creek and for inland parts of the Pilbara.

On Saturday, Narelle is expected to be weakening as it moves quickly to the
south southeast, with impacts extending to the Central West and then further
inland and south across the South West Land Division. During Saturday the
strongest winds are expected to be on the eastern side of the system.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS up to 275 km/h are occurring over coastal parts
between Exmouth and Onslow and are expected to extend south to Coral Bay early
this morning as Narelle moves over the North West Cape, before extending down
the west coast to Cape Cuvier during this morning. Carnarvon could see wind
gusts up to 200 km/h this afternoon, and wind gusts up to 180 km/h could extend
to Denham late Friday or early Saturday.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h are occurring along the west
Pilbara coast between east of Onslow and the North West Cape, including Exmouth
and will extend south along the Ningaloo coast early this morning. DESTRUCTIVE
WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h are expected to extend south to Carnarvon and
then to Denham during this morning and afternoon, and may extend to Kalbarri
and inland parts later today and possibly as far south as Morawa Saturday
morning.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring in coastal areas
between Whim Creek and Coral Bay, including Exmouth and are possible over
adjacent inland areas to Pannawonica. Gales will extend south Carnarvon and
Denham this morning and further south to Kalbarri and inland, possibly as far
east as Murchison, during today. Gales may extend south to Jurien Bay and
inland to Dalwallinu during Saturday morning.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible in western parts of
the Pilbara and Gascoyne as Narelle moves past. Areas of INTENSE RAINFALL that
may lead to SEVERE FLASH FLOODING is likely to develop about the western
Pilbara west of about Onslow this morning, before extending further south into
the northwestern Gascoyne later Friday morning.

Coastal residents between Onslow and Denham are specifically warned of a
DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone moves south down the Gascoyne coast. Tides
are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING
WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Tides will be higher than normal between Port Hedland and Onslow. LARGE WAVES
may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts
and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am AWST Friday 27 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling  13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 am March 27	4	21.1S	114.2E	30
+6hr	8 am March 27	4	22.6S	113.6E	50
+12hr	2 pm March 27	3	24.1S	113.7E	70
+18hr	8 pm March 27	3	25.8S	114.1E	75
+24hr	2 am March 28	2	27.8S	115.0E	85
+36hr	2 pm March 28	tropical low	32.2S	118.1E	125
+48hr	2 am March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+60hr	2 pm March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+72hr	2 am March 30	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

1. IDW27600
   
2. TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
   
3. Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
   
4. at: 1839 UTC 26/03/2026
   
5. Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle
   
6. Identifier: 34U
   
7. Data At: 1800 UTC
   
8. Latitude: 21.1S
   
9. Longitude: 114.2E
   
10. Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
    
11. Movement Towards: southwest (216 deg)
    
12. Speed of Movement: 10 knots (18 km/h)
    
13. Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 100 knots (185 km/h)
    
14. Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 140 knots (260 km/h)
    
15. Central Pressure: 943 hPa
    
16. Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 150 nm (280 km)
    
17. Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 165 nm (305 km)
    
18. Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
    
19. Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
    
20. Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 85 nm (155 km)
    
21. Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
    
22. Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 55 nm (100 km)
    
23. Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
    
24. Radius of 64-knot winds: 70 nm (130 km)
    
25. Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (40 km)
    
26. Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
    
27. Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
    
28. Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm (370 km)
    
29. FORECAST DATA
    
30. Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
    
31. (UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
    
32. +06:  27/0000: 22.6S 113.6E:     025 (050):  105  (195):  939
    
33. +12:  27/0600: 24.1S 113.7E:     035 (070):  080  (150):  962
    
34. +18:  27/1200: 25.8S 114.1E:     040 (075):  070  (130):  971
    
35. +24:  27/1800: 27.8S 115.0E:     045 (085):  055  (100):  983
    
36. +36:  28/0600: 32.2S 118.1E:     065 (125):  040  (075):  993
    
37. +48:  28/1800:             :              :            :     
    
38. +60:  29/0600:             :              :            :     
    
39. +72:  29/1800:             :              :            :     
    
40. +96:  30/1800:             :              :            :     
    
41. +120: 31/1800:             :              :            :     
    
42. REMARKS:
    
43. Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is impacting the west Pilbara coast.
    
44. 
    
45. Location was determined from Learmonth radar with very good confidence.
    
46. Satellite imagery continues to show a large circular and clear eye. Deep
    
47. convection near the centre has been pulsating over the last 6 hours, but the
    
48. eye remains large with a diameter of about 40-45 nm.  
    
49. 
    
50. Dvorak analysis: Over the last 3 hours DT=5.5 using an eye pattern with a LG
    
51. surrounding ring and no Eye adj made due to the large eye. MET is 6.0 based on
    
52. a D trend. PAT adjusted to 5.5. FT/CI is 5.5 . Recent objective guidance at
    
53. 1720 UTC: (1-min means): ADT 112 kn, AiDT 107 kn, DPRINT 106 kn, DMINT
    
54. (1708UTC) 110 kn, SATCON (1700 UTC) 102 kn. Thevenard Island observed gusts to
    
55. 88 kn around 1740UTC, with a mean 10 min mean up around 64kn at 1700 UTC.
    
56. Intensity has increased to 100 knots (10-min), slightly higher than the
    
57. subjective Dvorak and within error bounds of the objective estimates.  
    
58. 
    
59. Environmental conditions are generally favourable as Narelle approaches the
    
60. North West Cape. SSTs around 29  30  C persist along Narelle  s track off the
    
61. Pilbara coast. Satellite image shows good upper outflow around the system,
    
62. particularly on the poleward side. Deep layer wind shear is analysed around
    
63. 10-15 knots easterly at 1500 UTC. Narelle may still intensify over the next 6
    
64. hours before interactions with the coast and there remains a slight risk it
    
65. reaches category 5 intensity.  
    
66. 
    
67. As Narelle moves south today wind shear is forecast to increase and the system
    
68. may begin to weaken as early as this morning as it also interactions with land.
    
69. The weakening trend will continue during Friday as land interaction and the
    
70. shear further increases. Despite this weakening the system is likely to impact
    
71. the west coast of Western Australia as a severe tropical cyclone.
    
72. 
    
73. Narelle is being starting to move to the south southwest with an approaching
    
74. mid level trough in the Indian Ocean and a mid-level ridge over central
    
75. Australia. The system will take a more southerly track today down the west
    
76. coast and then south southeast across the South West Land Division during
    
77. Saturday as the system is steered by the mid level trough. There is high
    
78. confidence in this track but timing (speed along the track) remains more
    
79. uncertain, with a possibly crossing location still between the North West Cape
    
80. and Denham.  
    
81. 
    
82. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
    
83. ==
    
84. The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/0130 UTC.

复制代码

Ragasa

WTXS31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 036//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 036   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261800Z --- NEAR 21.1S 114.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 114.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 23.9S 113.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 27.7S 115.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 24 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 31.8S 118.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 26 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 36.4S 121.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 21.8S 114.0E.
26MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 72
NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 261800Z IS 947 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
270300Z, 270900Z, 271500Z AND 272100Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 262100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING
   
4. NR 036//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 21.1S 114.0E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 110 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 72 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 45 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A LARGE, 30
    
18. NM EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A NEARLY SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
    
19. (CDO). WHILE THE EYE REMAINS WARM AND CIRCULAR, THE NORTHWEST
    
20. QUADRANT OF THE CDO IS ERODING, AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
    
21. BECOMING INCREASINGLY RESTRICTED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
    
22. LEARMONTH AIRPORT RADAR REVEALS TWO CLOSED RAINBANDS SEPARATED BY A
    
23. MOAT, WITH NORTHERN SIDE OF THE PRIMARY EYEWALL OPENING UP. A
    
24. 261722Z AMSR2 PASS ALSO SHOWS THESE FEATURES AND INDICATES AN ONGOING
    
25. EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) THAT IS UNLIKELY TO COMPLETE BEFORE
    
26. THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL. THE ERC LIKELY HALTED THE RAPID RATE OF
    
27. INTENSIFICATION OBSERVED UP UNTIL 260000Z, AFTER WHICH TIME THE TC
    
28. PLATEAUED AT AROUND 110 KTS. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO A MORE HOSTILE
    
29. ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, COOLER
    
30. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LAND EFFECTS. UNFORTUNATELY, THESE
    
31. INITIAL SIGNS OF WEAKENING ARE COMING TOO LATE FOR LEARMONTH, WHERE
    
32. DESTRUCTIVE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 KTS AND GUSTS OF 95-100 KTS ARE
    
33. ALREADY OCCURRING. THE RIGHT-FRONT QUADRANT IS ASSESSED TO BE OVER
    
34. THE EXMOUTH GULF, WHERE THE LARGE FETCH OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IS
    
35. PRODUCING HISTORIC COASTAL IMPACTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
    
36. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LEARMONTH AIRPORT RADAR. THE
    
37. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON
    
38. THE ONGOING ERC, THE T5.5 FROM APRF AND T6.0 FROM PGTW, AND THE
    
39. MAJORITY OF THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS RANGING FROM 107 KTS
    
40. TO 116 KTS.
    
41. 
    
42. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
    
43. 
    
44. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER
    
45. WEST-CENTRAL AUSTRALIA
    
46. 
    
47. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
48.    PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
    
49.    APRF: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
50.    CIMSS SATCON: 116 KTS AT 261756Z
    
51.    CIMSS ADT: 112 KTS AT 261730Z
    
52.    CIMSS AIDT: 107 KTS AT 261730Z
    
53.    CIMSS D-MINT: 110 KTS AT 261757Z
    
54.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 107 KTS AT 261830Z
    
55. 
    
56. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
    
57. UNFAVORABLE
    
58.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
59.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
60.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
    
61. 
    
62. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
63.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
64.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
65.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
66. 
    
67. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
68. 
    
69. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
70. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
71. 
    
72. FORECAST DISCUSSION: PUSHING INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
    
73. RIDGE, TC 27P IS ROUNDING THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A STRONG
    
74. ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED OVER WEST-CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE STORM
    
75. MOTION HAS SHIFTED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, PRIMING TC 27P FOR AN IMMINENT
    
76. LANDFALL ON THE WESTERN COAST OF THE EXMOUTH PENINSULA. AFTER MAKING
    
77. LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AS IT
    
78. INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND RAPIDLY UNDERGOES
    
79. SUBTROPICALTRANSITION. IT WILL BECOME COMPLETELY SUBTROPICAL BY TAU
    
80. 48 OR EARLIER. THROUGH TAU 12, THE EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION AND
    
81. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL TAKE A TOLL ON THE INTENSITY OF
    
82. THE STORM. BY TAU 24, DEEP-LAYER, WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD REACH 40
    
83. KTS. THE SYSTEM WILL BROADEN OUT AS IT TRACKS EAST OF PERTH AND
    
84. BAROCLINIC FORCING BECOMES A STRONGER DETERMINANT OF INTENSITY.
    
85. 
    
86. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
    
87. 24. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO 90 NM BY TAU 36, WITH THE ECMWF
    
88. AND EXPERIMENTAL AI MODELS ON THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SPREAD, AND
    
89. THE GFS AND MESOSCALE MODELS ON THE WESTERN HALF. THE FORECAST
    
90. TRACK IS LAID ON TOP OF THE CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 48 WITH HIGH
    
91. CONFIDENCE. ALL MODELS DEPICT RAPID WEAKENING UNTIL THE SYSTEM
    
92. COMPLETES SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS SET
    
93. WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE
    
94. THROUGH TAU 12 AND HEDGED CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS THEREAFTER.
    
95. 
    
96. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
97.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
98.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
    
99. 
    
100. NNNN

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Ragasa

IDW24100
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Onslow and Denham are requested to
USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 84
Issued at 4:59 am WST on Friday 27 March 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, category 4, is currently impacting the west
Pilbara coast with severe impacts extending to the Gascoyne coast this morning.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Cape Preston to Jurien Bay, including Onslow, Exmouth, Coral Bay,
Carnarvon, Denham and Geraldton, and extending inland to Pannawonica, Murchison
and Dalwallinu.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zone: Dampier to Whim Creek, including Karratha.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 5:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 185 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 260 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 21.6 degrees South 113.9 degrees East,
estimated to be 125 kilometres west of Onslow and 45 kilometres north northwest
of Exmouth.
Movement: southwest at 19 kilometres per hour.

Narelle is within the vicinity of Exmouth and turning to the south. It is
started to pass close to the North West Cape as a category 4 cyclone. Severe
impacts are expected from the western Pilbara coast to the northern Gascoyne
coast this morning, and then extending south to Carnarvon and Denham during
today.

On Saturday, Narelle is expected to be weakening as it moves quickly to the
south southeast, with impacts extending to the Central West and then further
inland and south across the South West Land Division. During Saturday the
strongest winds are expected to be on the eastern side of the system.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS up to 275 km/h are occurring over coastal parts
between the North West Cape and Onslow and are expected to extend south down
the west coast to Coral Bay and Cape Cuvier during this morning. Carnarvon
could see wind gusts up to 200 km/h this afternoon, and wind gusts up to 180
km/h could extend to Denham late Friday or early Saturday.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h are occurring along the west
Pilbara coast between Onslow and Coral Bay, including Exmouth. DESTRUCTIVE WIND
GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h are expected to extend south to Carnarvon and then
to Denham during this morning and afternoon, and may extend to Kalbarri and
inland parts later today and possibly as far south as Morawa Saturday morning.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring in coastal areas
between Cape Preston and Cape Curvier and are possible over adjacent inland
areas to Pannawonica. Gales will extend south Carnarvon and Denham this morning
and further south to Kalbarri and inland, possibly as far east as Murchison,
during today. Gales may extend south to Jurien Bay and inland to Dalwallinu
during Saturday morning.

A Severe Weather Warning is also current for damaging wind gusts east of Cape
Preston and for inland parts of the Pilbara.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible over western parts
of the Pilbara, Gascoyne and Central West as Narelle moves past. Areas of
INTENSE RAINFALL that may lead to SEVERE FLASH FLOODING are likely to develop
about the western Pilbara west of about Onslow this morning, before extending
further south into the northwestern Gascoyne later this morning.

Coastal residents between Onslow and Denham are specifically warned of a VERY
DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone moves south down the Gascoyne coast. Tides
will rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and
VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Tides will be higher than normal between Port Hedland and Onslow. LARGE WAVES
may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts
and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 am AWST Friday 27 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling  13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	5 am March 27	4	21.6S	113.9E	30
+6hr	11 am March 27	4	23.1S	113.7E	50
+12hr	5 pm March 27	3	24.8S	114.0E	65
+18hr	11 pm March 27	3	26.6S	114.6E	75
+24hr	5 am March 28	2	28.7S	115.7E	90
+36hr	5 pm March 28	tropical low	33.2S	119.4E	110
+48hr	5 am March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+60hr	5 pm March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+72hr	5 am March 30	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

pocketbox

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0054 UTC 27/03/2026
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Identifier: 34U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 22.4S
Longitude: 113.7E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: south southwest (200 deg)
Speed of Movement: 14 knots (25 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 95 knots (175 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 135 knots (250 km/h)
Central Pressure: 946 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 150 nm (280 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 130 nm (240 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 160 nm (295 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  27/0600: 24.0S 113.7E:     025 (050):  085  (155):  954
+12:  27/1200: 25.7S 114.2E:     035 (065):  065  (120):  971
+18:  27/1800: 27.6S 115.1E:     040 (075):  055  (100):  978
+24:  28/0000: 29.8S 116.5E:     050 (095):  045  (085):  986
+36:  28/1200: 34.3S 120.1E:     060 (115):  035  (065):  991
+48:  29/0000:             :              :            :     
+60:  29/1200:             :              :            :     
+72:  30/0000:             :              :            :     
+96:  31/0000:             :              :            :     
+120: 01/0000:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is impacting the west Pilbara coast.

Location was determined from animated satellite imagery with very good
confidence. Learmonth radar is not available with possible damage sustained.
Satellite imagery is showing a large roughly circular eye with an eroding cold
ring. Recent microwave imagery has shown two deep convection rings indicating
an eye replacement cycle is in progress, which has resulted in a decrease in
the eye size.

Dvorak analysis: Over the last 3 hours has averaged DT=4.8. For 00 UTC, it was
an eye pattern with a MG surrounding ring, OW/LH for eye and surrounding
temperature. MET is 5.0 based on an S trend. PAT adjusted to 4.5. FT/CI is
5.0/5.5. Recent objective guidance at 2300 UTC: (1-min means): ADT 112 kn, AiDT
105 kn, DPRINT 101 kn, DMINT (2136 UTC) 107 kn, SATCON (2000 UTC) 115 kn.
Thevenard Island observed gusts to 88 kn around 1740UTC, with a mean 10 min
mean up around 64kn at 1700 UTC. Learmonth obsevred a 108 gust at 22:31 UTC.
Intensity has been held at 95 knots (10-min), which is in line with subjective
Dvorak and objective estimates.  

Environmental conditions are generally favourable in the short term, apart from
proximity to land. SSTs around 27  C, decreasing to less than 26  C south of
Carnarvon. Satellite image shows good upper outflow around the system,
particularly on the poleward side. Deep layer wind shear is analysed around
southerly 5 knots at 1800 UTC. Narelle has shown signs of weakening due to
interactions with the coast.  

As Narelle moves south today wind shear is forecast to increase and it expected
to continue weakening slowly while over water and close to land. The latest
track has it crossing the coast south of Coral Bay, after that it is expected
to weaken quicker. Despite this weakening the system is likely to impact the
upper west coast of Western Australia as a severe tropical cyclone.

Narelle is moving to the south being steered by a mid-level ridge to the east.
The ridge erodes due to an approaching upper trough, with Narelle expected to
move to the south southeast and then accelerate as the trough gets closer later
today and during Saturday. This faster speed of motion is expected to enhance
the winds to the northeast of the system as it tracks over land.  

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/0730 UTC.

---

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Onslow and Denham are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 87
Issued at 8:06 am WST on Friday 27 March 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, category 4, is currently impacting the west Pilbara coast with severe impacts extending to the Gascoyne coast this morning.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Mardie to Jurien Bay, including Onslow, Exmouth, Coral Bay, Carnarvon, Denham and Geraldton, and extending inland to Glen Florrie, Murchison and Dalwallinu.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
East of Mardie to Cape Preston, and inland to Pannawonica.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 8:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 175 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 250 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 22.4 degrees South 113.7 degrees East, estimated to be 70 kilometres southwest of Exmouth and 280 kilometres north of Carnarvon.

Movement: south southwest at 25 kilometres per hour.

Narelle has started to weaken, but is expected to remain a category 4 system for a few more hours. It is within the vicinity of Exmouth, is moving to the south and is passing close to the North West Cape. Severe impacts are expected from the western Pilbara coast to the northern Gascoyne coast this morning, and then extending south to Carnarvon and Denham during today.

On Saturday, Narelle is expected to be weakening as it moves quickly to the south southeast, with impacts extending to the Central West and then further inland and south across the South West Land Division. During Saturday the strongest winds are expected to be on the eastern side of the system.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS up to 250 km/h are occurring over coastal parts between the North West Cape and Onslow and are expected to extend south down the west coast to Coral Bay and Cape Cuvier during this morning. Carnarvon could see wind gusts up to 200 km/h this afternoon, and wind gusts up to 180 km/h could extend to Denham late Friday or early Saturday.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h are occurring along the west Pilbara coast between Onslow and Coral Bay, including Exmouth. DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h are expected to extend south to Carnarvon and then to Denham during this morning and afternoon, and may extend to Kalbarri and inland parts later today and possibly as far south as Morawa Saturday morning.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring in coastal areas between Mardie and Cape Curvier and are possible over adjacent inland areas to Glen Florrie. Gales will extend south to Carnarvon and Denham later this morning and further south to Kalbarri and inland, possibly as far east as Murchison, during today. Gales may extend south to Jurien Bay and inland to Dalwallinu during Saturday morning.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible over western parts of the Pilbara, Gascoyne and Central West as Narelle moves past. Areas of INTENSE RAINFALL that may lead to SEVERE FLASH FLOODING are likely to develop about the western Pilbara west of about Onslow this morning, before extending further south into the northwestern Gascoyne later this morning.

Coastal residents between Onslow and Denham are specifically warned of a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone moves south down the Gascoyne coast. Tides will rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Tides between Cape Preston and Onslow are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark with LARGE WAVES and MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am AWST Friday 27 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 am March 27	4	22.4S	113.7E	30
+6hr	2 pm March 27	3	24.0S	113.7E	50
+12hr	8 pm March 27	3	25.7S	114.2E	65
+18hr	2 am March 28	2	27.6S	115.1E	75
+24hr	8 am March 28	tropical low	29.8S	116.5E	95
+36hr	8 pm March 28	tropical low	34.3S	120.1E	115
+48hr	8 am March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+60hr	8 pm March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+72hr	8 am March 30	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX