西澳北部近海四级强热带气旋“纳蕾勒”(34U/27P.Narelle) - 横穿澳大利亚北部再度出海发展，平行海岸西南行进 - BoM:120KT JTWC:125KT

pocketbox

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Onslow and Exmouth are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 69
Issued at 11:52 am WST on Thursday 26 March 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle has strengthened to category 4. Severe impacts possible for the west Pilbara and Gascoyne coasts .

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Port Hedland to Denham, including Karratha, Onslow, Exmouth, Coral Bay and Carnarvon, and extending inland to Pannawonica and Gascoyne Junction.

Watch Zone
South of Denham to Jurien Bay, including Kalbarri and Geraldton, and extending inland to Murchison, Yalgoo and Dalwallinu.

Cancelled Zone
Pardoo Roadhouse to east of Port Hedland.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 11:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 165 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 230 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 20 kilometres of 19.1 degrees South 115.9 degrees East, estimated to be 210 kilometres north northwest of Karratha and 365 kilometres north northeast of Exmouth.

Movement: west southwest at 17 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is now a category 4 tropical cyclone and is expected to continue to strengthen.

Narelle is moving west southwest, roughly parallel to the Pilbara coast. Narelle is larger than usual and although the cyclone is located well north of the Pilbara, gales extend to the coast.

On Friday, Narelle will turn towards the south, likely passing close to the North West Cape as a category 4 cyclone.

There is the potential for a severe impact on the far western Pilbara coast from later Thursday, extending south to Denham during Friday.

On Saturday Narelle is expected to be weakening as it moves quickly to the south southeast with impacts extending to the Central West and then further inland and south across the South West Land Division. During Saturday the strongest winds are expected to be on the eastern side of the system.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS up to 275 km/h may develop between Exmouth and Onslow later on Thursday as Narelle moves closer to the North West Cape, and then extend down the west coast to Cape Cuvier during Friday morning. Carnarvon could see wind gusts up to 220 km/h during Friday, and wind gusts up to 195 km/h could extend to Denham late Friday or early Saturday.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h may occur on the Pilbara coast between Karratha and Mardie, extending west to Exmouth during Thursday afternoon, and south to Carnarvon and then to Denham and the Overlander Roadhouse during Friday. DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h may extend to Kalbarri and inland parts later Friday and possibly as far south as Morawa early Saturday morning.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring near the coast between west of Munda Station to Mardie, including Karratha. Periods of gales are possible east to Port Hedland during Thursday afternoon. Gales will develop west to Exmouth during Thursday afternoon and extend further south to Kalbarri and inland to the Overlander Roadhouse and possibly to Murchison during Friday. Gales may extend south to Jurien Bay and inland to Dalwallinu during Saturday morning.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible in western parts of the Pilbara and Gascoyne as Narelle moves past. Areas of INTENSE RAINFALL that may lead to SEVERE FLASH FLOODING is likely to develop about the western Pilbara west of about Onslow overnight and Friday morning, before extending further south into the northwestern Gascoyne later Friday morning.

Coastal residents between Onslow and Denham are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone moves south down the Gascoyne coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Tides will be higher than normal between Port Hedland and Onslow. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm AWST Thursday 26 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	11 am March 26	4	19.1S	115.9E	20
+6hr	5 pm March 26	4	19.9S	115.0E	45
+12hr	11 pm March 26	4	20.7S	114.2E	65
+18hr	5 am March 27	4	21.8S	113.6E	70
+24hr	11 am March 27	4	23.2S	113.4E	70
+36hr	11 pm March 27	2	26.9S	114.2E	90
+48hr	11 am March 28	tropical low	31.4S	117.2E	130
+60hr	11 pm March 28	tropical low	36.0S	120.8E	150
+72hr	11 am March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

LsfyHarold

FY-4B
西澳少见的大眼货

pocketbox

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0708 UTC 26/03/2026
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Identifier: 34U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 19.5S
Longitude: 115.4E
Location Accuracy: within 10nm (20 km)
Movement Towards: southwest (232 deg)
Speed of Movement: 10 knots (18 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 95 knots (175 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 135 knots (250 km/h)
Central Pressure: 942 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 140 nm (260 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm (280 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.5/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 160 nm (295 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  26/1200: 20.3S 114.6E:     025 (045):  105  (195):  933
+12:  26/1800: 21.3S 113.9E:     035 (065):  105  (195):  932
+18:  27/0000: 22.5S 113.5E:     035 (070):  090  (165):  947
+24:  27/0600: 24.1S 113.4E:     040 (070):  080  (150):  956
+36:  27/1800: 27.9S 114.7E:     055 (100):  055  (100):  977
+48:  28/0600: 32.6S 118.2E:     075 (145):  035  (065):  990
+60:  28/1800:             :              :            :     
+72:  29/0600:             :              :            :     
+96:  30/0600:             :              :            :     
+120: 31/0600:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
Narelle is moving to the southwest with a severe impacts likely to be
experienced along the west Pilbara coast this evening.

Location was estimated from the Karratha radar and animated IR imagery with
good confidence. EIR still shows a large, ragged eye with cold intrusions
present, the radar shows a clear, circular eye with a diameter of about 40 nm.  

Intensity has been increased to 95 knots (10-min), consistent with subjective
Dvorak and within error bounds of other estimates.  

Dvorak analysis: Over the last 3 hours DT=5.0 using an eye pattern with a LG or
B surrounding ring and no Eye adj made due to the large, ragged eye. MET is 5.0
based on a D trend. PAT is not adjusted. FT /CI is 5.0/5.5. Recent objective
guidance at 0530 UTC: (1-min means): ADT 124 kn, AiDT 113 kn, DPRINT 111 kn, no
recent SATCON.  

Environmental conditions are generally favourable for some further development.
SSTs around 29  30  C persist along Narelle  s track off the Pilbara coast but
reduce as Narelle turns and tracks south past Exmouth, dropping below 26  C
roughly south of Shark Bay. CIMSS AMV analysis shows good upper outflow and
strong upper divergence around the system, particularly on the poleward side.
Deep layer wind shear is analysed around 10 to 15 knots easterly. A peak
intensity of Category 5 is possible. As Narelle moves south during Friday wind
shear is forecast to increase and the system may begin to weaken as early as
Friday morning. The weakening trend will continue during Friday as the shear
increases further and it experiences land interaction. Despite this weakening
the system is likely to impact the west coast of Western Australia as a severe
tropical cyclone.

Narelle is being steered to the southwest by a mid-level ridge located over
central Australia. Overnight Thursday a mid-level trough in the Indian Ocean
becomes the more influential factor and Narelle is expected to be steered south
down the west coast during Friday and then south southeast across the South
West Land Division during Saturday.  There is high confidence in this track but
timing (speed along the track) remains more uncertain.  

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 26/1330 UTC.

---

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Onslow and Exmouth are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 70
Issued at 2:58 pm WST on Thursday 26 March 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, category 4, to bring severe impacts to the west Pilbara and Gascoyne coasts from tonight.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Port Hedland to Northampton, including Karratha, Onslow, Exmouth, Coral Bay, Carnarvon and Denham, and extending inland to Pannawonica and Murchison.

Watch Zone
South of Northampton to Jurien Bay, including Geraldton, and extending inland to Yalgoo and Dalwallinu.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 2:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 175 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 250 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 20 kilometres of 19.5 degrees South 115.4 degrees East, estimated to be 205 kilometres northwest of Karratha and 300 kilometres north northeast of Exmouth.

Movement: southwest at 18 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, category 4, is forecast to strengthen further this afternoon as it approaches the NW Cape.

Narelle is moving southwest, roughly parallel to the Pilbara coast. Narelle is larger than usual and although the cyclone is located well north of the Pilbara, gales extend to the coast.

On Friday, Narelle will turn towards the south, likely passing close to the North West Cape as a category 4 cyclone.

It is likely the far western Pilbara coast will experience severe impacts this evening and overnight, extending south to Denham during Friday.

On Saturday Narelle is expected to be weakening as it moves quickly to the south southeast with impacts extending to the Central West and then further inland and south across the South West Land Division. During Saturday the strongest winds are expected to be on the eastern side of the system.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS up to 275 km/h may develop between Exmouth and Onslow later Thursday evening as Narelle moves closer to the North West Cape, and then extend down the west coast to Cape Cuvier during Friday morning. Carnarvon could see wind gusts up to 200 km/h during Friday, and wind gusts up to 180 km/h could extend to Denham late Friday or early Saturday.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h may occur on the Pilbara coast between Karratha and Mardie, extending west to Exmouth during Thursday afternoon, and south to Carnarvon and then to Denham and the Overlander Roadhouse during Friday. DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h may extend to Kalbarri and inland parts later Friday and possibly as far south as Morawa early Saturday morning.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring near the coast between west of Munda Station to Mardie, including Karratha. Periods of gales are possible east to Port Hedland during Thursday afternoon. Gales will develop west to Exmouth during Thursday afternoon and evening and extend further south to Kalbarri and inland to the Overlander Roadhouse and possibly to Murchison during Friday. Gales may extend south to Jurien Bay and inland to Dalwallinu during Saturday morning.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible in western parts of the Pilbara and Gascoyne as Narelle moves past. Areas of INTENSE RAINFALL that may lead to SEVERE FLASH FLOODING is likely to develop about the western Pilbara west of about Onslow overnight and Friday morning, before extending further south into the northwestern Gascoyne later Friday morning.

Coastal residents between Onslow and Denham are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone moves south down the Gascoyne coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Tides will be higher than normal between Port Hedland and Onslow. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 4:00 pm AWST Thursday 26 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 pm March 26	4	19.5S	115.4E	20
+6hr	8 pm March 26	4	20.3S	114.6E	45
+12hr	2 am March 27	4	21.3S	113.9E	65
+18hr	8 am March 27	4	22.5S	113.5E	70
+24hr	2 pm March 27	3	24.1S	113.4E	70
+36hr	2 am March 28	2	27.9S	114.7E	100
+48hr	2 pm March 28	tropical low	32.6S	118.2E	145
+60hr	2 am March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+72hr	2 pm March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 034//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 034   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   260600Z --- NEAR 19.6S 115.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 115.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 21.5S 114.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 24.1S 113.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 27.7S 115.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 26 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 32.2S 118.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 115.1E.
26MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
178 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 260600Z IS 948 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 40 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 260900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING
   
4. NR 034//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 19.6S 115.4E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 110 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 178 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH,
    
13. AUSTRALIA
    
14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
    
15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 40 FEET
    
16. 
    
17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
18. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A LARGE 30
    
19. NM EYE WITH SYMMETRIC BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE
    
20. CENTER. A 260627Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE
    
21. VORTEX HAS MAINTAINED ITS STRUCTURE, WITH A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE
    
22. AND COLD CLOUD TOPS ENTIRELY SURROUNDING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
    
23. CENTER (LLCC). THE 36 GHZ VERSION OF THE SAME MICROWAVE IMAGE
    
24. REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, WITH
    
25. A DISTINCT MOAT FEATURE SEPARATING THE INNER AND OUTER EYEWALLS.
    
26. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
    
27. AND IS DERIVED FROM THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE
    
28. INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
    
29. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM KARRATHA,
    
30. THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSR2 IMAGE, AND ANIMATED MSI. THE CURRENT
    
31. ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED AS FAVORABLE DUE TO LOW VERTICAL WIND
    
32. SHEAR (VWS), WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND RADIAL
    
33. OUTFLOW.
    
34. 
    
35. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
36. 
    
37. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    
38. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA
    
39. 
    
40. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
41.    PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
42.    APRF: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
43.    CIMSS SATCON: 118 KTS AT 260600Z
    
44.    CIMSS ADT: 124 KTS AT 260600Z
    
45.    CIMSS AIDT: 113 KTS AT 260600Z
    
46.    CIMSS D-MINT: 116 KTS AT 260557Z
    
47.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 114 KTS AT 260600Z
    
48. 
    
49. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
50.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
    
51.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
52.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
    
53. 
    
54. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
55.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
56.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
57.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
58. 
    
59. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
60. 
    
61. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
62. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
63. 
    
64. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 27P (NARELLE) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
    
65. OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
    
66. DEEP-LAYER STR OVER WESTER AUSTRALIA.  IT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
    
67. ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS THROUGH TAU 24 ON AN INCREASINGLY SOUTHWARD
    
68. TRAJECTORY. A FINAL LANDFALL WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EXMOUTH PENINSULA
    
69. JUST AFTER TAU 12, WITH THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT BRINGING LIKELY
    
70. DEVASTATING IMPACTS TO LEARMONTH AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  AFTER TAU
    
71. 24 TC NARELLE IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND
    
72. THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
    
73. FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND, EAST OF
    
74. GERALDTON AND PERTH. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 110 KTS AND A
    
75. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WILL RESULT IN A
    
76. PEAK INTENSITY OF 115-120 KTS LIKELY OCCURRING AROUND 261200Z.
    
77. INCREASING LAND INTERACTION FROM TAU 12 ONWARD WILL CAUSE RAPID
    
78. WEAKENING AS TC NARELLE PUSHES INLAND OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA.
    
79. ADDITIONALLY, WESTERLY VWS (35-40 KTS) WILL QUICKLY INCREASE NEAR
    
80. TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
    
81. SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AT TAU 36 AND COMPLETE
    
82. NEAR TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF PERTH.
    
83. 
    
84. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AT
    
85. TAU 12 WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 15 NM AND 20 NM OF ALONG-TRACK
    
86. SPREAD JUST BEFORE THE EXPECTED LANDFALL. AFTER TAU 12 NAVGEM
    
87. BECOMES AN OUTLIER, TRACKING THE SYSTEM ALONG THE AUSTRALIAN COAST
    
88. RATHER THAN INLAND AS DEPICTED BY THE REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE.
    
89. DISCOUNTING NAVGEM, THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD STEADILY INCREASES TO
    
90. AROUND 70 NM AT TAU 48, WITH AN ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF 115 NM. THE
    
91. AI AND PHYSICS-BASED MODELS HAVE COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT ON THE
    
92. TRACK COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
    
93. TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE TES1
    
94. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
    
95. WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 12, HOWEVER, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW
    
96. FOR EITHER A STEADY INTENSITY OR A BRIEF CONTINUATION OF
    
97. INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS PERIOD. FOLLOWING LANDFALL JUST AFTER
    
98. TAU 12, MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON RAPID WEAKENING. THE
    
99. JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
    
100. CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 12, THEN FOLLOWS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
     
101. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
     
102. 
     
103. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
104.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
     
105.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
     
106. NNNN

复制代码

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全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹越男、董议文  签发：董 林  2026 年 03 月 26 日 18 时
“纳蕾勒”将在澳大利亚西部沿海再次登陆

时  间: 3月26日14时（北京时,下同）

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “纳蕾勒”，NARELLE

中心位置: 南纬19.5度，东经115.4度

强度等级: 四级热带气旋

最大风力: 15级，49米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级

中心气压:  942百帕

参考位置:   距离澳大利亚西澳大利亚州卡拉萨西北方向约210公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“纳蕾勒”由11级加强至15级

预报结论: “纳蕾勒”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西南方向移动，强度逐渐加强，将于27日白天在西澳大利亚州西部沿海再次登陆（43-54米/秒，14-16级，相当于我国的强台风级至超强台风级）。受其影响，26日夜间至27日，西澳大利亚州西部沿海及海域将有10-13级大风，“纳蕾勒”中心经过的附近海域或地区风力可达14-16级，阵风17级至17级以上。26日夜间至28日，西澳大利亚州西部沿海地区将有大到暴雨，局地有大暴雨或特大暴雨（120-300毫米）。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年3月26日14时00分）

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IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Onslow and Exmouth are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 72
Issued at 4:58 pm WST on Thursday 26 March 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, category 4, is currently impacting the west Pilbara coast with severe impacts expected along the Gascoyne coast later tonight.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Port Hedland to Northampton, including Karratha, Onslow, Exmouth, Coral Bay, Carnarvon and Denham, and extending inland to Pannawonica and Murchison.

Watch Zone
South of Northampton to Jurien Bay, including Geraldton, and extending inland to Yalgoo and Dalwallinu.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 5:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 175 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 250 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 20 kilometres of 19.9 degrees South 115.1 degrees East, estimated to be 200 kilometres west northwest of Karratha and 245 kilometres north northeast of Exmouth.

Movement: southwest at 18 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, category 4, is forecast to strengthen further this evening as it approaches the NW Cape.

Narelle is moving southwest, roughly parallel to the Pilbara coast. Narelle is larger than usual and although the cyclone is located well north of the Pilbara, gales and destructive winds are occurring over the coast.

Later tonight or early Friday, Narelle will turn towards the south, likely passing close to the North West Cape as a category 4 cyclone. Severe impacts will extend to the far western Pilbara coast and Gascoyne coast overnight, extending south to Denham during Friday.

On Saturday, Narelle is expected to be weakening as it moves quickly to the south southeast with impacts extending to the Central West and then further inland and south across the South West Land Division. During Saturday the strongest winds are expected to be on the eastern side of the system.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS up to 275 km/h may develop between Exmouth and Onslow later this evening as Narelle moves closer to the North West Cape, and then extend down the west coast to Cape Cuvier during Friday morning. Carnarvon could see wind gusts up to 200 km/h during Friday, and wind gusts up to 180 km/h could extend to Denham late Friday or early Saturday.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h are occurring along the Pilbara coast between Mardie and Onslow, and are expected to extend west to Exmouth this evening, and south to Carnarvon and then to Denham and the Overlander Roadhouse during Friday. DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h may extend to Kalbarri and inland parts later Friday and possibly as far south as Morawa early Saturday morning.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring near the coast between west of Munda Station to west of Onslow, including Karratha. Gales will develop west to Exmouth this evening, and extend further south to Kalbarri and inland to the Overlander Roadhouse and possibly to Murchison during Friday. Gales may extend south to Jurien Bay and inland to Dalwallinu during Saturday morning.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible in western parts of the Pilbara and Gascoyne as Narelle moves past. Areas of INTENSE RAINFALL that may lead to SEVERE FLASH FLOODING is likely to develop about the western Pilbara west of about Onslow overnight and Friday morning, before extending further south into the northwestern Gascoyne later Friday morning.

Coastal residents between Onslow and Denham are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone moves south down the Gascoyne coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Tides will be higher than normal between Port Hedland and Onslow. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 pm AWST Thursday 26 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	5 pm March 26	4	19.9S	115.1E	20
+6hr	11 pm March 26	4	20.9S	114.3E	45
+12hr	5 am March 27	4	21.9S	113.7E	65
+18hr	11 am March 27	3	23.3S	113.5E	70
+24hr	5 pm March 27	3	25.0S	113.6E	70
+36hr	5 am March 28	2	29.0S	115.5E	105
+48hr	5 pm March 28	tropical low	33.7S	119.2E	140
+60hr	5 am March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+72hr	5 pm March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

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IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Mardie and Exmouth are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 73
Issued at 5:54 pm WST on Thursday 26 March 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, category 4, is currently impacting the west Pilbara coast with severe impacts expected along the Gascoyne coast later tonight.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Whim Creek to Northampton, including Karratha, Onslow, Exmouth, Coral Bay, Carnarvon and Denham, and extending inland to Pannawonica and Murchison.

Watch Zone
South of Northampton to Jurien Bay, including Geraldton, and extending inland to Yalgoo and Dalwallinu.

Cancelled Zone
Port Hedland to Whim Creek.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 6:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 175 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 250 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 20 kilometres of 20.1 degrees South 115.0 degrees East, estimated to be 205 kilometres west northwest of Karratha and 225 kilometres north northeast of Exmouth.

Movement: southwest at 18 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, category 4, is forecast to strengthen further this evening as it approaches the NW Cape.

Narelle is moving southwest, roughly parallel to the Pilbara coast. Narelle is larger than usual and although the cyclone is located north of the Pilbara, gales and destructive winds are occurring over the coast.

Later tonight or early Friday, Narelle will turn towards the south, likely passing close to the North West Cape as a category 4 cyclone. Severe impacts will extend from the western Pilbara coast to the Gascoyne coast overnight, and then extending south to Denham during Friday.

On Saturday, Narelle is expected to be weakening as it moves quickly to the south southeast with impacts extending to the Central West and then further inland and south across the South West Land Division. During Saturday the strongest winds are expected to be on the eastern side of the system.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS up to 275 km/h may develop between Exmouth and Onslow later this evening as Narelle moves closer to the North West Cape, and then extend down the west coast to Cape Cuvier during Friday morning. Carnarvon could see wind gusts up to 200 km/h during Friday, and wind gusts up to 180 km/h could extend to Denham late Friday or early Saturday.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h are occurring along the Pilbara coast between Mardie and Onslow, and are expected to extend west to Exmouth this evening, and south to Carnarvon and then to Denham and the Overlander Roadhouse during Friday. DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h may extend to Kalbarri and inland parts later Friday and possibly as far south as Morawa Saturday morning.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring near the coast between Whim Creek to west of Onslow. Gales will develop west to Exmouth this evening, and then extend further south to Kalbarri and inland to the Overlander Roadhouse and possibly to Murchison during Friday. Gales may extend south to Jurien Bay and inland to Dalwallinu during Saturday morning.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible in western parts of the Pilbara and Gascoyne as Narelle moves past. Areas of INTENSE RAINFALL that may lead to SEVERE FLASH FLOODING is likely to develop about the western Pilbara west of about Onslow overnight and Friday morning, before extending further south into the northwestern Gascoyne later Friday morning.

Coastal residents between Onslow and Denham are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone moves south down the Gascoyne coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Tides will be higher than normal between Port Hedland and Onslow. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 7:00 pm AWST Thursday 26 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	6 pm March 26	4	20.1S	115.0E	20
+6hr	12 am March 27	4	21.0S	114.2E	45
+12hr	6 am March 27	4	22.2S	113.7E	65
+18hr	12 pm March 27	3	23.6S	113.5E	70
+24hr	6 pm March 27	3	25.3S	113.8E	75
+36hr	6 am March 28	2	29.3S	115.8E	105
+48hr	6 pm March 28	tropical low	33.9S	119.5E	145
+60hr	6 am March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+72hr	6 pm March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

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IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Mardie and Exmouth are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 74
Issued at 6:56 pm WST on Thursday 26 March 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, category 4, is currently impacting the west Pilbara coast with severe impacts expected along the Gascoyne coast later tonight.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Whim Creek to Northampton, including Karratha, Onslow, Exmouth, Coral Bay, Carnarvon and Denham, and extending inland to Pannawonica and Murchison.

Watch Zone
South of Northampton to Jurien Bay, including Geraldton, and extending inland to Yalgoo and Dalwallinu.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 7:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 175 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 250 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 20 kilometres of 20.2 degrees South 114.9 degrees East, estimated to be 215 kilometres west northwest of Karratha and 210 kilometres north northeast of Exmouth.

Movement: southwest at 18 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, category 4, is forecast to strengthen further tonight as it approaches the North West Cape.

Narelle is moving southwest, roughly parallel to the Pilbara coast. Narelle is larger than usual and although the cyclone is located north of the Pilbara, gales and destructive winds are occurring over the coast. A Severe Weather Warning is also current for damaging winds east of Whim Creek.

Later tonight or early Friday, Narelle will turn towards the south, likely passing close to the North West Cape as a category 4 cyclone. Severe impacts will extend from the western Pilbara coast to the Gascoyne coast overnight, and then extending south to Denham during Friday.

On Saturday, Narelle is expected to be weakening as it moves quickly to the south southeast with impacts extending to the Central West and then further inland and south across the South West Land Division. During Saturday the strongest winds are expected to be on the eastern side of the system.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS up to 275 km/h may develop between Exmouth and Onslow later this evening as Narelle moves closer to the North West Cape, and then extend down the west coast to Cape Cuvier during Friday morning. Carnarvon could see wind gusts up to 200 km/h during Friday, and wind gusts up to 180 km/h could extend to Denham late Friday or early Saturday.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h are occurring along the Pilbara coast between Mardie and Onslow, and are expected to extend west to Exmouth this evening, and south to Carnarvon and then to Denham and the Overlander Roadhouse during Friday. DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h may extend to Kalbarri and inland parts later Friday and possibly as far south as Morawa Saturday morning.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring near the coast between Whim Creek to west of Onslow. Gales will develop west to Exmouth this evening, and then extend further south to Kalbarri and inland to the Overlander Roadhouse and possibly to Murchison during Friday. Gales may extend south to Jurien Bay and inland to Dalwallinu during Saturday morning.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible in western parts of the Pilbara and Gascoyne as Narelle moves past. Areas of INTENSE RAINFALL that may lead to SEVERE FLASH FLOODING is likely to develop about the western Pilbara west of about Onslow overnight and Friday morning, before extending further south into the northwestern Gascoyne later Friday morning.

Coastal residents between Onslow and Denham are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone moves south down the Gascoyne coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Tides will be higher than normal between Port Hedland and Onslow. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 8:00 pm AWST Thursday 26 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	7 pm March 26	4	20.2S	114.9E	20
+6hr	1 am March 27	4	21.2S	114.1E	45
+12hr	7 am March 27	4	22.4S	113.7E	65
+18hr	1 pm March 27	3	23.8S	113.6E	70
+24hr	7 pm March 27	3	25.6S	113.9E	80
+36hr	7 am March 28	tropical low	29.7S	116.1E	105
+48hr	7 pm March 28	tropical low	34.2S	119.7E	150
+60hr	7 am March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+72hr	7 pm March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

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IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1248 UTC 26/03/2026
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Identifier: 34U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 20.3S
Longitude: 114.7E
Location Accuracy: within 10nm (20 km)
Movement Towards: southwest (223 deg)
Speed of Movement: 10 knots (19 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 95 knots (175 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 135 knots (250 km/h)
Central Pressure: 946 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 140 nm (260 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm (280 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  26/1800: 21.3S 114.0E:     025 (045):  105  (195):  937
+12:  27/0000: 22.6S 113.6E:     035 (065):  090  (165):  951
+18:  27/0600: 24.1S 113.6E:     040 (070):  080  (150):  960
+24:  27/1200: 25.9S 114.0E:     045 (080):  070  (130):  969
+36:  28/0000: 30.0S 116.3E:     060 (110):  045  (085):  988
+48:  28/1200: 34.6S 119.9E:     080 (150):  035  (065):  992
+60:  29/0000:             :              :            :     
+72:  29/1200:             :              :            :     
+96:  30/1200:             :              :            :     
+120: 31/1200:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is impacting the west Pilbara coast.

Location was determined from the Karratha and the Learmonth radar with very
good confidence. Satellite imagery continues to show a large eye that has
become more clear, circular over the last few hours. Over recent images a
narrow band of cold cloud has wrapped around the centre, but still conserving
the large eye with a diameter of about 40-45 nm.  

Dvorak analysis: Over the last 3 hours DT=5.0 using an eye pattern with a LG
surrounding ring and no Eye adj made due to the large eye. MET is 5.0 based on
a D trend. PAT is not adjusted. FT is 5.0 and CI is dropped to 5.0. Recent
objective guidance at 1130 UTC: (1-min means): ADT 119 kn, AiDT 114 kn, DPRINT
110 kn, DMINT (1020UTC) 114 kn, SATCON (1100UTC) 117 kn. Varanus Island
observed 77 kn with gusts to 100 kn around 1000UTC. Intensity has been held at
95 knots (10-min), slightly higher than the subjective Dvorak and within error
bounds of the objective estimates.  

Environmental conditions are generally favourable for some further development.
SSTs around 29-30C persist along Narelle  s track off the Pilbara coast but
reduce as Narelle turns and tracks south past Exmouth, dropping below 26C
roughly south of Shark Bay. Satellite image shows good upper outflow around the
system, particularly on the poleward side. Deep layer wind shear is analysed
around 10 to 20 knots easterly. A peak intensity of Category 5 is a slight
chance. As Narelle moves south during Friday wind shear is forecast to increase
and the system may begin to weaken as early as Friday morning. The weakening
trend will continue during Friday as the shear increases further and it
experiences land interaction. Despite this weakening the system is likely to
impact the west coast of Western Australia as a severe tropical cyclone.

Narelle is being steered to the southwest by a mid-level ridge located over
central Australia. A mid-level trough in the Indian Ocean is expected to steer
Narelle south down the west coast during Friday and then south southeast across
the South West Land Division during Saturday.  There is high confidence in this
track but timing (speed along the track) remains more uncertain.  

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 26/1930 UTC.

---

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Mardie and Coral Bay are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 75
Issued at 8:00 pm WST on Thursday 26 March 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, category 4, is currently impacting the west Pilbara coast with severe impacts extending to the Gascoyne coast Friday morning.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Whim Creek to Dongara, including Karratha, Onslow, Exmouth, Coral Bay, Carnarvon, Denham and Geraldton, and extending inland to Pannawonica, Murchison and Yalgoo.

Watch Zone
South of Dongara to Jurien Bay and extending inland to Dalwallinu.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 8:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 175 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 250 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 20 kilometres of 20.3 degrees South 114.7 degrees East, estimated to be 230 kilometres west northwest of Karratha and 190 kilometres north northeast of Exmouth.

Movement: southwest at 19 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, category 4, is forecast to strengthen further overnight as it approaches the North West Cape.

Narelle is moving southwest, roughly parallel to the Pilbara coast. Narelle is larger than usual and although the cyclone is located north of the Pilbara, gales and destructive winds are occurring over the coast. A Severe Weather Warning is also current for damaging winds east of Whim Creek.

Early Friday, Narelle will turn towards the south, likely passing close to the North West Cape as a category 4 cyclone. Severe impacts will extend from the western Pilbara coast to the Gascoyne coast overnight, and then extending south to Denham during Friday.

On Saturday, Narelle is expected to be weakening as it moves quickly to the south southeast with impacts extending to the Central West and then further inland and south across the South West Land Division. During Saturday the strongest winds are expected to be on the eastern side of the system.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS up to 275 km/h may develop between Exmouth and Onslow overnight as Narelle moves closer to the North West Cape, and then extend down the west coast to Cape Cuvier during Friday morning. Carnarvon could see wind gusts up to 200 km/h during Friday, and wind gusts up to 180 km/h could extend to Denham late Friday or early Saturday.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h are occurring along the Pilbara coast between Mardie and Onslow, and are expected to extend west to Exmouth overnight. DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h are expected to extend south to Carnarvon and then to Denham during Friday morning and afternoon, and may extend to Kalbarri and inland parts later on Friday and possibly as far south as Morawa Saturday morning.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring near the coast between Whim Creek to Exmouth. Gales will extend further south to Kalbarri and inland, possibly as far east as Murchison, during Friday. Gales may extend south to Jurien Bay and inland to Dalwallinu during Saturday morning.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible in western parts of the Pilbara and Gascoyne as Narelle moves past. Areas of INTENSE RAINFALL that may lead to SEVERE FLASH FLOODING is likely to develop about the western Pilbara west of about Onslow overnight and Friday morning, before extending further south into the northwestern Gascoyne later Friday morning.

Coastal residents between Onslow and Denham are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone moves south down the Gascoyne coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Tides will be higher than normal between Port Hedland and Onslow. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm AWST Thursday 26 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 pm March 26	4	20.3S	114.7E	20
+6hr	2 am March 27	4	21.3S	114.0E	45
+12hr	8 am March 27	4	22.6S	113.6E	65
+18hr	2 pm March 27	3	24.1S	113.6E	70
+24hr	8 pm March 27	3	25.9S	114.0E	80
+36hr	8 am March 28	tropical low	30.0S	116.3E	110
+48hr	8 pm March 28	tropical low	34.6S	119.9E	150
+60hr	8 am March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+72hr	8 pm March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

pocketbox

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Mardie and Coral Bay are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 76
Issued at 8:58 pm WST on Thursday 26 March 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, category 4, is currently impacting the west Pilbara coast with severe impacts extending to the Gascoyne coast Friday morning.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Whim Creek to Dongara, including Karratha, Onslow, Exmouth, Coral Bay, Carnarvon, Denham and Geraldton, and extending inland to Pannawonica, Murchison and Yalgoo.

Watch Zone
South of Dongara to Jurien Bay and extending inland to Dalwallinu.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 9:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 175 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 250 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 20 kilometres of 20.4 degrees South 114.5 degrees East, estimated to be 240 kilometres west of Karratha and 170 kilometres north northeast of Exmouth.

Movement: southwest at 20 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, category 4, is forecast to strengthen further overnight as it approaches the North West Cape.

Narelle is moving southwest, roughly parallel to the Pilbara coast. Narelle is larger than usual and although the cyclone is located north of the Pilbara, gales and destructive winds are occurring over the coast. A Severe Weather Warning is also current for damaging winds east of Whim Creek.

Early Friday, Narelle will turn towards the south, likely passing close to the North West Cape as a category 4 cyclone. Severe impacts will extend from the western Pilbara coast to the Gascoyne coast overnight, and then extending south to Denham during Friday.

On Saturday, Narelle is expected to be weakening as it moves quickly to the south southeast with impacts extending to the Central West and then further inland and south across the South West Land Division. During Saturday the strongest winds are expected to be on the eastern side of the system.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS up to 275 km/h may develop between Exmouth and Onslow overnight as Narelle moves closer to the North West Cape, and then extend down the west coast to Cape Cuvier during Friday morning. Carnarvon could see wind gusts up to 200 km/h during Friday, and wind gusts up to 180 km/h could extend to Denham late Friday or early Saturday.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h are occurring along the Pilbara coast between Mardie and Onslow, and are expected to extend west to Exmouth overnight. DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h are expected to extend south to Carnarvon and then to Denham during Friday morning and afternoon, and may extend to Kalbarri and inland parts later on Friday and possibly as far south as Morawa Saturday morning.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring near the coast between Whim Creek to Exmouth. Gales will extend further south to Kalbarri and inland, possibly as far east as Murchison, during Friday. Gales may extend south to Jurien Bay and inland to Dalwallinu during Saturday morning.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible in western parts of the Pilbara and Gascoyne as Narelle moves past. Areas of INTENSE RAINFALL that may lead to SEVERE FLASH FLOODING is likely to develop about the western Pilbara west of about Onslow overnight and Friday morning, before extending further south into the northwestern Gascoyne later Friday morning.

Coastal residents between Onslow and Denham are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone moves south down the Gascoyne coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Tides will be higher than normal between Port Hedland and Onslow. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 10:00 pm AWST Thursday 26 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	9 pm March 26	4	20.4S	114.5E	20
+6hr	3 am March 27	4	21.5S	113.9E	45
+12hr	9 am March 27	4	22.8S	113.6E	65
+18hr	3 pm March 27	3	24.3S	113.6E	75
+24hr	9 pm March 27	3	26.1S	114.1E	85
+36hr	9 am March 28	tropical low	30.4S	116.6E	120
+48hr	9 pm March 28	tropical low	34.9S	120.2E	150
+60hr	9 am March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+72hr	9 pm March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX