西澳北部近海四级强热带气旋“纳蕾勒”(34U/27P.Narelle) - 横穿澳大利亚北部再度出海发展，平行海岸西南行进 - BoM:120KT JTWC:125KT

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WTXS31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 031//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 031   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251200Z --- NEAR 17.9S 117.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 117.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 18.9S 116.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 20.3S 114.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 22.4S 113.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 25.6S 114.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 24 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 33.7S 120.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 39.6S 125.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 117.4E.
25MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
149 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 251200Z IS 967 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 251500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING
   
4. NR
   
5. 031//
   
6. RMKS/
   
7. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
8. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
9. 
   
10. SUMMARY:
    
11.    INITIAL POSITION: 17.9S 117.9E
    
12.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
    
13.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 149 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND,
    
14. AUSTRALIA
    
15.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 11 KTS
    
16.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET
    
17. 
    
18. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
19. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
20. CYCLONE (TC) 27P (NARELLE) AS IT PROPAGATES SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
    
21. STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER
    
22. AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AS WITNESSED BY
    
23. A 45 KTS MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, WITH SIGNIFICANT
    
24. IMPROVEMENT IN THE SIZE AND STRUCTURE OF THE CONVECTION, AS WELL AS
    
25. DEVELOPMENT OF A BANDING EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION AND
    
26. INTENSITY ARE ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 251039Z RCM-2
    
27. SAR PASS SHOWING A 30-35 NM DIAMETER EYE, WITH PEAK INTENSITY OF 87-92
    
28. KTS. A HIGHLY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT IS FACILITATING THE TIGHT WRAPPING
    
29. OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
    
30. (LLCC). RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) IS SUPPORTED BY WARM (29-30 C) SEA
    
31. SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND LOW (5-10 KTS)
    
32. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
    
33. 
    
34. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: A 251039Z RCM-2 SAR PASS
    
35. 
    
36. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    
37. POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA
    
38. 
    
39. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
40.    PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
    
41.    APRF: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
42.    CIMSS ADT: 107 KTS AT 251140Z
    
43.    CIMSS AIDT: 100 KTS AT 251140Z
    
44.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 82 KTS AT 251300Z
    
45. 
    
46. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
    
47.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
    
48.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
49.    OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
    
50. 
    
51. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
52.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
53.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
54.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
55. 
    
56. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
57. 
    
58. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
59. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
60. 
    
61. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC NARELLE IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE
    
62. SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTH WEST CAPE, WESTERN AUSTRALIA.
    
63. LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE PENINSULA IS ANTICIPATED AFTER TAU
    
64. 24 AND JUST BEFORE TAU 36. FURTHER RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS
    
65. EXPECTED DUE TO A PERSISTENTLY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT, AND THE
    
66. SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115-120 KTS BETWEEN
    
67. TAUS 24 AND 36. THE FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED SLIGHTLY WEST OF
    
68. THE TOWNS OF EXMOUTH AND LEARMONTH, WITH THE 64 KT WIND RADII STILL
    
69. FULLY ENCOMPASSING THE AREA. POST-LANDFALL, TC 27P WILL BEGIN TO
    
70. ROUND THE AXIS OF THE STEERING RIDGE AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD, OVER
    
71. LAND, THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAKENING
    
72. TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 96 DUE TO INCREASING VWS, DRY AIR
    
73. ENTRAINMENT AND TERRAIN-INDUCED FRICTION. BY TAU 96, TC 27P WILL
    
74. COMPLETE ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT), WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
    
75. COMMENCE AROUND TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RE-EMERGE OVER
    
76. WATERS JUST SOUTH OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA WITH AN INTENSITY OF AROUND
    
77. 45 KTS.
    
78. 
    
79. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE HAS FURTHER
    
80. IMPROVED SINCE LAST WARNING AND IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT
    
81. THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT LANDFALL IS
    
82. CURRENTLY AROUND 35 NM, EXPANDING TO 60 NM BY THE TIME TC 27P
    
83. REEMERGES OVER WATER SOUTH OF AUSTRALIA. MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE
    
84. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE TRACK OVER WATER, CLOSELY ADJACENT TO THE
    
85. NORTH WEST CAPE, WITH MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND AI CONSENSUS
    
86. TRACKERS PROJECTING LANDFALL SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA.
    
87. JTWC OFFICIAL TRACK IS LAID VERY CLOSE TO THOSE TWO SOLUTIONS WITH
    
88. HIGH CONFIDENCE. REGARDING INTENSITY, THE OFFICIAL JTWC PREDICTION
    
89. IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. ALL AVAILABLE MULTI-MODEL
    
90. CONSENSUS MEMBERS AGREE ON THE TIMELINE OF INTENSIFICATION AND
    
91. SUBSEQUENT DECAY; HOWEVER, WITH NUMEROUS RI-AIDS TRIGGERING AMIDST
    
92. MORE CONSERVATIVE DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE, THE PEAK INTENSITY
    
93. SPREAD REMAINS WIDE, RANGING FROM 90 TO 130 KTS. THE JTWC FORECAST
    
94. IS LAID IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
    
95. PERIOD.
    
96. 
    
97. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
98.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
99.    TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
    
100.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
101.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
     
102. NNNN

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pocketbox

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 65
Issued at 11:49 pm WST on Wednesday 25 March 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle remains at category 3 strength. Potential severe impacts for the west Pilbara and Gascoyne coasts.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Pardoo Roadhouse to Cape Cuvier, including Port Hedland, Karratha, Onslow, Exmouth, and Coral Bay, and extending inland to Pannawonica.

Watch Zone
South of Cape Cuvier to Dongara, including Carnarvon, Denham, and Geraldton, extending inland to Gascoyne Junction, Murchison, and Yalgoo.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 11:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 130 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 185 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 18.2 degrees South 117.5 degrees East, estimated to be 260 kilometres north northwest of Port Hedland and 290 kilometres north northeast of Karratha.

Movement: west southwest at 20 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is a category 3 tropical cyclone and is expected to continue to strengthen.

Narelle is moving west southwest, roughly parallel to the Pilbara coast. Narelle is larger than usual and although the cyclone is located well north of the Pilbara, gales are likely to extend to the coast tonight.

On Friday, Narelle will turn towards the south, likely passing close to the North West Cape as a category 4 cyclone.

There is the potential for a severe impact on the far western Pilbara coast from late Thursday, extending south to Denham during Friday.

On Saturday Narelle is expected to be weakening as it moves quickly to the south southeast with impacts extending to the Central West and then further inland and south across the South West Land Division.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS up to 260 km/h may develop west of Onslow later on Thursday as Narelle moves closer to the North West Cape, and possibly extend south to Carnarvon during Friday. Wind gusts to 195 km/h may extend south to Denham later Friday.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h may develop on the Pilbara coast near Karratha early Thursday, extending west to Exmouth during Thursday, and south to Carnarvon and then to Denham and the Overlander Roadhouse during Friday.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 100 km/h are possible between Pardoo Roadhouse and Dampier, including Port Hedland, tonight and Thursday morning. GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h may develop west to Exmouth during Thursday and extend further south to Kalbarri and inland to the Murchison Roadhouse during Friday, and to Geraldton early Saturday.

Coastal residents between Onslow and Denham are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone moves south down the Gascoyne coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Tides will be higher than normal between Port Hedland and Onslow. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am AWST Thursday 26 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	11 pm March 25	3	18.2S	117.5E	35
+6hr	5 am March 26	3	18.6S	116.5E	60
+12hr	11 am March 26	3	19.2S	115.6E	80
+18hr	5 pm March 26	4	19.9S	114.7E	95
+24hr	11 pm March 26	4	20.7S	114.0E	90
+36hr	11 am March 27	4	22.9S	113.3E	95
+48hr	11 pm March 27	3	26.1S	114.1E	105
+60hr	11 am March 28	tropical low	30.3S	116.8E	165
+72hr	11 pm March 28	tropical low	34.2S	120.2E	200

Ragasa

IDW24100
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 66
Issued at 2:51 am WST on Thursday 26 March 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle steadily intensifying. Severe impacts possible
for the west Pilbara and Gascoyne coasts.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Pardoo Roadhouse to Cape Cuvier, including Port Hedland,
Karratha, Onslow, Exmouth, and Coral Bay, and extending inland to Pannawonica.

Watch zone: South of Cape Cuvier to Dongara, including Carnarvon, Denham, and
Geraldton, extending inland to Gascoyne Junction, Murchison, and Yalgoo.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 2:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 150 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 205 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 18.3 degrees South 117.0 degrees East,
estimated to be 280 kilometres northwest of Port Hedland and 270 kilometres
north of Karratha.
Movement: west southwest at 19 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is a category 3 tropical cyclone and is
expected to continue to strengthen.

Narelle is moving west southwest, roughly parallel to the Pilbara coast.
Narelle is larger than usual and although the cyclone is located well north of
the Pilbara, gales extend to the coast.

On Friday, Narelle will turn towards the south, likely passing close to the
North West Cape as a category 4 cyclone.

There is the potential for a severe impact on the far western Pilbara coast
from late Thursday, extending south to Denham during Friday.

On Saturday Narelle is expected to be weakening as it moves quickly to the
south southeast with impacts extending to the Central West and then further
inland and south across the South West Land Division. During Saturday the
strongest winds are expected to be on the eastern side of the system.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS up to 275 km/h may develop west of Onslow later on
Thursday as Narelle moves closer to the North West Cape. Carnarvon could see
wind gusts up to 220 km/h during Friday, and wind gusts up to 195 km/h could
extend to Denham late Friday or early Saturday.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h may occur on the Pilbara coast
near Karratha during Thursday morning, extending west to Exmouth during
Thursday, and south to Carnarvon and then to Denham and the Overlander
Roadhouse during Friday.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring just offshore and will
occasionally extend to the near coastal parts between Pardoo Roadhouse and
Mardie, including Port Hedland and Karratha. Gales will develop west to Exmouth
during Thursday and extend further south to Kalbarri and inland to the
Overlander Roadhouse and possibly to Murchison during Friday. Geraldton may
experience gales early Saturday.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible in western parts of
the Pilbara and Gascoyne as Narelle moves past.

Coastal residents between Onslow and Denham are specifically warned of a
DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone moves south down the Gascoyne coast. Tides
are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING
WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Tides will be higher than normal between Port Hedland and Onslow. LARGE WAVES
may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts
and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 am AWST Thursday 26 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling  13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 am March 26	3	18.3S	117.0E	35
+6hr	8 am March 26	3	18.8S	116.1E	60
+12hr	2 pm March 26	4	19.5S	115.1E	80
+18hr	8 pm March 26	4	20.2S	114.3E	80
+24hr	2 am March 27	4	21.0S	113.5E	75
+36hr	2 pm March 27	4	23.5S	113.2E	85
+48hr	2 am March 28	2	26.8S	114.1E	125
+60hr	2 pm March 28	tropical low	31.3S	117.6E	185
+72hr	2 am March 29	tropical low	35.8S	121.2E	210

1. IDW27600
   
2. TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
   
3. Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
   
4. at: 1910 UTC 25/03/2026
   
5. Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle
   
6. Identifier: 34U
   
7. Data At: 1800 UTC
   
8. Latitude: 18.3S
   
9. Longitude: 117.0E
   
10. Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
    
11. Movement Towards: west southwest (252 deg)
    
12. Speed of Movement: 10 knots (19 km/h)
    
13. Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots (150 km/h)
    
14. Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots (205 km/h)
    
15. Central Pressure: 959 hPa
    
16. Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 140 nm (260 km)
    
17. Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm (280 km)
    
18. Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 140 nm (260 km)
    
19. Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
    
20. Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
    
21. Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
    
22. Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
    
23. Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
    
24. Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm (55 km)
    
25. Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (50 km)
    
26. Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D2.5/24HRS SST:D1.0/06HRS
    
27. Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
    
28. Radius of outermost closed isobar: 190 nm (350 km)
    
29. FORECAST DATA
    
30. Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
    
31. (UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
    
32. +06:  26/0000: 18.8S 116.1E:     030 (060):  085  (155):  954
    
33. +12:  26/0600: 19.5S 115.1E:     040 (080):  095  (175):  945
    
34. +18:  26/1200: 20.2S 114.3E:     040 (080):  100  (185):  939
    
35. +24:  26/1800: 21.0S 113.5E:     040 (075):  105  (195):  934
    
36. +36:  27/0600: 23.5S 113.2E:     045 (085):  095  (175):  945
    
37. +48:  27/1800: 26.8S 114.1E:     070 (125):  060  (110):  975
    
38. +60:  28/0600: 31.3S 117.6E:     100 (185):  040  (075):  989
    
39. +72:  28/1800: 35.8S 121.2E:     115 (210):  030  (055):  993
    
40. +96:  29/1800:             :              :            :     
    
41. +120: 30/1800:             :              :            :     
    
42. REMARKS:
    
43. Narelle's satellite signature has improved over the last 6 hours and it is now
    
44. possible to consistently apply an eye pattern analysis, albeit for a large and
    
45. ragged eye.  
    
46. 
    
47. Location was estimated from radar (partial coverage) and animated IR imagery
    
48. with moderate confidence.   
    
49. 
    
50. Dvorak analysis: Over the last 3 hours DT=5/5.5 using an eye pattern with a B/W
    
51. surrounding ring and a   0.5 Eye adj. MET is 4.0 based on a D+ trend. PAT is
    
52. adjusted to 4.5. FT is based on DT but constrained to 5.0 to be within 1 of
    
53. MET.
    
54. 
    
55. Recent objective guidance at 1730 UTC: (1-min means): ADT 119 kn, AiDT 106 kn,
    
56. DPRINT 94 kn, SATCON 108 kn.  
    
57. 
    
58. ADT and AiDT have previously been higher than other estimates but although ADT
    
59. still appears to be too high, estimates from other aids are steadily
    
60. increasing.  
    
61. 
    
62. Intensity is analysed at 80 knots (10-min), consistent with DPRINT and
    
63. subjective Dvorak and within error bounds of other estimates.  
    
64. 
    
65. Environmental conditions are generally favourable for development. SSTs around
    
66. 29  30  C persist along Narelle  s track off the Pilbara coast but reduce as
    
67. Narelle turns and tracks south past Exmouth, dropping below 26  C roughly south
    
68. of Shark Bay. CIMSS AMV analysis shows good upper outflow and divergence around
    
69. the system, particularly on the poleward side. Deep layer wind shear is
    
70. analysed around 10 to 15 knots easterly. AIRI guidance suggests a strong
    
71. probability of rapid intensification over the next 24 to 36 hours.
    
72. Intensification above the standard rate is therefore forecast, peaking at
    
73. category 4 (105 knots) on Friday morning. A peak intensity of Category 5 is
    
74. possible.
    
75. 
    
76. As Narelle moves south down the west coast of Western Australia it is likely to
    
77. begin to weaken due to cooler SSTs and increased wind shear, plus proximity to
    
78. the coast itself. The system is likely to impact the west coast of Western
    
79. Australia as a severe tropical cyclone and then weaken as it moves inland
    
80. across the southwest of WA.  
    
81. 
    
82. Narelle is being steered to the west southwest by a mid-level ridge located
    
83. over central Australia. By late Thursday a mid level trough in the Indian Ocean
    
84. becomes the more influential factor and Narelle is expected to be steered south
    
85. down the west coast during Friday and then south southeast across the South
    
86. West Land Division during Saturday.  There is high confidence in this track but
    
87. timing (speed along the track) remains more uncertain.
    
88. 
    
89. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
    
90. ==
    
91. The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 26/0130 UTC.

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Ragasa

WTXS31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 032   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251800Z --- NEAR 18.3S 117.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 117.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 19.5S 115.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 21.4S 114.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 24.2S 113.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 27.9S 115.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 26 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 36.7S 121.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 116.8E.
25MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
297 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 251800Z IS 954 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
260900Z AND 262100Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 252100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING
   
4. NR 032//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 18.3S 117.2E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 105 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 297 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 36 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A LARGE,
    
18. RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH DEEP CONVECTION
    
19. BUILDING AND WRAPPING AROUND A RAGGED 40 NM EYE. A TIMELY 251835Z GMI
    
20. PASS REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE WITH ROBUST CONVECTIVE BANDS
    
21. WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER, WITH A NOTEWORTHY POLEWARD SHIFT IN THE
    
22. TRACK. CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS EVIDENCED BY THE ENLARGING
    
23. CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST, WARMING EYE, AND EXPANDING UPPER-LEVEL
    
24. OUTFLOW. HAVING INTENSIFIED 55 KTS IN THE LAST 24 HOURS, TC 27P
    
25. SHOWS NO INDICATION OF SLOWING DOWN WITHIN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE
    
26. ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
    
27. 30 DEGREES CELSIUS AND VERY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 5 KTS. THE
    
28. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
    
29. THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.5 FROM PGTW, GIVEN THAT THE EYE TEMPERATURE
    
30. HAS WARMED SINCE THE FIX. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
    
31. CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED GMI PASS.
    
32. 
    
33. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA
    
34. 
    
35. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED
    
36. OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA
    
37. 
    
38. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
39.    PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
40.    APRF: T5.0 - 90 KTS
    
41.    CIMSS SATCON: 105 KTS AT 251830Z
    
42.    CIMSS ADT: 122 KTS AT 251830Z
    
43.    CIMSS AIDT: 106 KTS AT 251830Z
    
44.    CIMSS D-MINT: 96 KTS AT 251726Z
    
45.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 97 KTS AT 251830Z
    
46. 
    
47. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
    
48.    VWS: 0-5 KTS
    
49.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
50.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
    
51. 
    
52. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
53.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
54.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
55.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
56. 
    
57. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
58. 
    
59. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECASTED PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN
    
60. INCREASED TO 125 KTS BASED ON THE HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY.
    
61. 
    
62. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 27P IS NOW APPROACHING A WEAKNESS IN THE
    
63. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BEGINNING TO ROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
    
64. OF A STRONG ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE
    
65. FORECAST BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO A VERY CLOSE APPROACH TO THE EXMOUTH
    
66. PENINSULA, OVER WHICH THE MOST INTENSE SECTOR OF THE STORM WILL PASS.
    
67. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TURN POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 36 AND THEN TURN
    
68. EASTWARD AS THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES EXERT A STRONGER INFLUENCE.
    
69. TC WILL UNDERGO SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT PASSES EAST OF GERALDTON
    
70. NEAR TAU 72 AND BECOME FULLY SUBTROPICAL BY TAU 96. THE IMMEDIATE
    
71. CHALLENGE IS IN PREDICTING THE PEAK INTENSITY. WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
    
72. OF 5 KTS OR LESS, 30 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND
    
73. SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
    
74. BE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI). GIVEN
    
75. THAT TC 27P HAS HAD A HISTORY OF OVERPERFORMING EVEN THE HIGHEST
    
76. ESTIMATES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK OF 125
    
77. KT BETWEEN 260600Z AND 261200Z. THE SYSTEM WILL INITIATE WEAKENING BY
    
78. TAU 24 AS IT ENCOUNTERS DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT BUT WILL STILL
    
79. BRING POTENTIALLY HISTORIC IMPACTS TO LEARMONTH. RAPID WEAKENING IS
    
80. PREDICTED AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
    
81. THE DRYING EFFECTS OF LAND. TOWARDS TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME
    
82. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES AND GAIN SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
    
83. 
    
84. MODEL DISCUSSION: THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH
    
85. TAU 24 WITH A 60 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD. THE AI MODELS FAVOR A
    
86. SHARPER TURN, WHILE THE PHYSICS-BASED MODELS ARE ON THE WESTERN
    
87. SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. NONETHELESS, ALL MODELS PREDICT AN
    
88. EXTREMELY CLOSE APPROACH TO OR A DIRECT LANDFALL ON LEARMONTH JUST
    
89. AFTER TAU 24. THE TRACK IS LAID WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TOP OF THE
    
90. CONSENSUS (TES1) FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN HEDGED EAST OF THE
    
91. CONSENSUS AND CLOSER TO THE AI MODELS AFTER TAU 24. THE AVAILABLE
    
92. GUIDANCE SHOWS CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24, AND SHIPS
    
93. DEPICTS A NEARLY 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF A 20 KT INCREASE IN THE
    
94. NEXT 12 HOURS. THE FORECAST PEAK IS SET ABOVE ALL OF THE MODEL
    
95. GUIDANCE AND CLOSER TO THE RIDE RI MODEL. MODELS COMMENCE GRADUAL
    
96. WEAKENING AT TAU 36, WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM
    
97. ACCELERATES POLEWARD OVER LAND. THE INTENSIFY FORECAST AFTER TAU 24
    
98. IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
    
99. 
    
100. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
101.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
     
102.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
     
103. NNNN

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ygsj24

IDW24100
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 67
Issued at 5:50 am WST on Thursday 26 March 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle steadily intensifying. Severe impacts possible
for the west Pilbara and Gascoyne coasts.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Pardoo Roadhouse to Cape Cuvier, including Port Hedland,
Karratha, Onslow, Exmouth, and Coral Bay, and extending inland to Pannawonica.

Watch zone: South of Cape Cuvier to Dongara, including Carnarvon, Denham, and
Geraldton, extending inland to Gascoyne Junction, Murchison, and Yalgoo.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 5:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 155 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 220 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 18.6 degrees South 116.5 degrees East,
estimated to be 290 kilometres northwest of Port Hedland and 240 kilometres
north of Karratha.
Movement: west southwest at 18 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is a category 3 tropical cyclone and is
expected to continue to strengthen.

Narelle is moving west southwest, roughly parallel to the Pilbara coast.
Narelle is larger than usual and although the cyclone is located well north of
the Pilbara, gales extend to the coast.

On Friday, Narelle will turn towards the south, likely passing close to the
North West Cape as a category 4 cyclone.

There is the potential for a severe impact on the far western Pilbara coast
from late Thursday, extending south to Denham during Friday.

On Saturday Narelle is expected to be weakening as it moves quickly to the
south southeast with impacts extending to the Central West and then further
inland and south across the South West Land Division. During Saturday the
strongest winds are expected to be on the eastern side of the system.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS up to 275 km/h may develop west of Onslow later on
Thursday as Narelle moves closer to the North West Cape. Carnarvon could see
wind gusts up to 220 km/h during Friday, and wind gusts up to 195 km/h could
extend to Denham late Friday or early Saturday.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h may occur on the Pilbara coast
near Karratha during Thursday morning, extending west to Exmouth during
Thursday, and south to Carnarvon and then to Denham and the Overlander
Roadhouse during Friday.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring just offshore and will
occasionally extend to the near coastal parts between Pardoo Roadhouse and
Mardie, including Port Hedland and Karratha. Gales will develop west to Exmouth
during Thursday and extend further south to Kalbarri and inland to the
Overlander Roadhouse and possibly to Murchison during Friday. Geraldton may
experience gales early Saturday.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible in western parts of
the Pilbara and Gascoyne as Narelle moves past.

Coastal residents between Onslow and Denham are specifically warned of a
DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone moves south down the Gascoyne coast. Tides
are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING
WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Tides will be higher than normal between Port Hedland and Onslow. LARGE WAVES
may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts
and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am AWST Thursday 26 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling  13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	5 am March 26	3	18.6S	116.5E	35
+6hr	11 am March 26	4	19.2S	115.7E	60
+12hr	5 pm March 26	4	19.9S	114.8E	75
+18hr	11 pm March 26	4	20.7S	114.1E	75
+24hr	5 am March 27	4	21.8S	113.5E	75
+36hr	5 pm March 27	3	24.7S	113.5E	85
+48hr	5 am March 28	2	28.5S	115.1E	130
+60hr	5 pm March 28	tropical low	33.3S	118.9E	185
+72hr	5 am March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

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pocketbox

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0106 UTC 26/03/2026
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Identifier: 34U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 18.8S
Longitude: 116.2E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (245 deg)
Speed of Movement: 9 knots (17 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 85 knots (155 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 120 knots (220 km/h)
Central Pressure: 954 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 140 nm (260 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm (280 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 140 nm (260 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D2.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 190 nm (350 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  26/0600: 19.5S 115.3E:     030 (060):  095  (175):  944
+12:  26/1200: 20.3S 114.5E:     040 (080):  105  (195):  934
+18:  26/1800: 21.2S 113.8E:     040 (080):  105  (195):  934
+24:  27/0000: 22.4S 113.4E:     040 (080):  100  (185):  939
+36:  27/1200: 25.5S 113.7E:     045 (080):  075  (140):  963
+48:  28/0000: 29.7S 115.9E:     075 (135):  045  (085):  986
+60:  28/1200: 34.4S 119.7E:     105 (190):  030  (055):  994
+72:  29/0000:             :              :            :     
+96:  30/0000:             :              :            :     
+120: 31/0000:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is currently category 3 and expected to
intensify further as it moves parallel to the Pilbara coast. Later Thursday or
early Friday, when the system is located near the NW Cape it is expected to
take a turn to the south and move down the west coast.  Later Friday Narelle is
forecast to move southeast and cross the west coast before moving southeast
across the South West Land Division.

The worst case scenarios for locations on Thursday is for Narelle to move
closer to and produce stronger winds along the Pilbara coast. Tides in the
worst case may exceed HAT by up to 1.2m at Karratha and between 0.4 and 0.9m
elsewhere along the Pilbara coast east of the North West Cape on Thursday.
Other more exposed locations and bays may experience higher wave and surge
impacts.   

For locations west of (and including) Onslow, the worst case scenario allows
for Narelle to pass closer to the timing of Friday's local high tides and be
located closer to the coast as the system starts to turn south. For the western
Pilbara coast including Onslow and Exmouth, the worst case on Friday morning's
high tide is for HAT exceedances of up to 0.9m. For locations south of the
North West Cape, the worst case on Friday afternoon's high tide is for HAT
exceedances up to 1 metre.  

The Exmouth Gulf may see HAT exceed up to 1.5-2.5m on Friday morning and
afternoon's high tide with a similar exceedance within Shark Bay on Friday
evening possible.

The standard high tide mark is currently up to about 1.0m below HAT and
consequently even with some surge from Narelle the forecast case scenario is
for HAT to be exceeded by no more than 0.5m along the Pilbara coast on the
Thursday and Friday afternoon high tides.  Along the west coast between Exmouth
and Denham, the likely scenario is for tides to reach 0.4m to 0.9m above HAT on
Friday afternoon's high tide.  

The movement on Narelle parallel to the Pilbara coast may generate a coastally
trapped wave of between 0.2 -0.5m which may further enhance tides along the
Pilbara coast during Thursday and then south along the west coast during Friday
and Saturday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 26/0730 UTC.

---

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Onslow and Exmouth are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 68
Issued at 8:51 am WST on Thursday 26 March 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle steadily intensifying. Severe impacts possible for the west Pilbara and Gascoyne coasts .

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Pardoo Roadhouse to Carnarvon, including Port Hedland, Karratha, Onslow, Exmouth, and Coral Bay, and extending inland to Pannawonica.

Watch Zone
South of Carnarvon to Jurien Bay, including Denham and Geraldton, and extending inland to Gascoyne Junction, Murchison, Morawa and Yalgoo.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 8:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 155 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 220 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 18.8 degrees South 116.2 degrees East, estimated to be 225 kilometres north northwest of Karratha and 410 kilometres north northeast of Exmouth.

Movement: west southwest at 17 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is a category 3 tropical cyclone and is expected to continue to strengthen.

Narelle is moving west southwest, roughly parallel to the Pilbara coast. Narelle is larger than usual and although the cyclone is located well north of the Pilbara, gales extend to the coast.

On Friday, Narelle will turn towards the south, likely passing close to the North West Cape as a category 4 cyclone.

There is the potential for a severe impact on the far western Pilbara coast from later Thursday, extending south to Denham during Friday.

On Saturday Narelle is expected to be weakening as it moves quickly to the south southeast with impacts extending to the Central West and then further inland and south across the South West Land Division. During Saturday the strongest winds are expected to be on the eastern side of the system.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS up to 275 km/h may develop between Exmouth and Onslow later on Thursday as Narelle moves closer to the North West Cape, and then extend down the west coast to Cape Cuvier during Friday morning. Carnarvon could see wind gusts up to 220 km/h during Friday, and wind gusts up to 195 km/h could extend to Denham late Friday or early Saturday.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h may occur on the Pilbara coast near Karratha during Thursday morning, extending west to Exmouth during Thursday, and south to Carnarvon and then to Denham and the Overlander Roadhouse during Friday.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring just offshore and will occasionally extend to the near coastal parts between Pardoo Roadhouse and Mardie, including Port Hedland and Karratha. Gales will develop west to Exmouth during Thursday and extend further south to Kalbarri and inland to the Overlander Roadhouse and possibly to Murchison during Friday. Gales may extend south to Jurien Bay and inland to Morawa during Saturday morning.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible in western parts of the Pilbara and Gascoyne as Narelle moves past.

Coastal residents between Onslow and Denham are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone moves south down the Gascoyne coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Tides will be higher than normal between Port Hedland and Onslow. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm AWST Thursday 26 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 am March 26	3	18.8S	116.2E	35
+6hr	2 pm March 26	4	19.5S	115.3E	60
+12hr	8 pm March 26	4	20.3S	114.5E	80
+18hr	2 am March 27	4	21.2S	113.8E	80
+24hr	8 am March 27	4	22.4S	113.4E	80
+36hr	8 pm March 27	3	25.5S	113.7E	80
+48hr	8 am March 28	tropical low	29.7S	115.9E	135
+60hr	8 pm March 28	tropical low	34.4S	119.7E	190
+72hr	8 am March 29	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 033//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 033   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   260000Z --- NEAR 18.9S 116.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 116.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 20.5S 114.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 22.7S 113.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 26.1S 114.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 25 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 30.5S 117.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 35.0S 120.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 115.9E.
26MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
238 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 260000Z IS 955 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 260300
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING
   
4. NR 033//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 18.9S 116.3E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 105 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 238 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH,
    
13. AUSTRALIA
    
14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
    
15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 40 FEET
    
16. 
    
17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
18. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A LARGE
    
19. TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE RAGGED,
    
20. 60 NM EYE. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE
    
21. OVERCAST WITH MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW, THOUGH IT SEEMED TO HAVE
    
22. INGESTED SOME DRY AIR FROM ITS WEST. THIS LIKELY STALLED ITS RAPID
    
23. RATE OF INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE
    
24. COOLED SINCE THEN, WITH A RING OF WHITE AND COLD-MEDIUM-GRAY SHADES
    
25. WRAPPING COMPLETELY AROUND THE EYE. RADAR RETURNS FROM THE KARRATHA
    
26. RADAR NOW ENCIRCLE THE WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE. THIS SUGGESTS
    
27. RESUMPTION OF INTENSIFICATION. A 252149Z RCM-1 SAR PASS DEPICTING A
    
28. LARGE WIND FIELD WITH NEAR 100 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND
    
29. THE T5.5 FROM PGTW WERE USED TO SET THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KTS
    
30. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
    
31. CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CLEAR-CUT EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI IMAGERY.
    
32. 
    
33. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA
    
34. 
    
35. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED
    
36. OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA
    
37. 
    
38. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
39.    PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
40.    APRF: T5.0 - 90 KTS
    
41.    CIMSS SATCON: 102 KTS AT 2520000Z
    
42.    CIMSS ADT: 122 KTS AT 260030Z
    
43.    CIMSS AIDT: 110 KTS AT 260030Z
    
44.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 100 KTS AT 260030Z
    
45. 
    
46. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
47.    VWS: 0-5 KTS
    
48.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
49.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
    
50.    OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST
    
51. 
    
52. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
53.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
54.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
55.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
56. 
    
57. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
58. 
    
59. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
60. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
61. 
    
62. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 27P IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHWEST BY A
    
63. LARGE ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA AND IS
    
64. APPROACHING A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRAJECTORY OF
    
65. TC 27P WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY POLEWARD FROM TAU 12 TO TAU 24 AS
    
66. IT ACCELERATES DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE. BY TAU 36,
    
67. IT WILL TURN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
    
68. BEGIN TO EXERT A STRONGER STEERING INFLUENCE. AS IT BECOMES
    
69. EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDINAL FLOW, IT WILL GAIN SUBTROPICAL
    
70. CHARACTERISTICS BY TAU 48 AND BECOME FULLY SUBTROPICAL BY TAU 72
    
71. WHEN IT EMERGES OVER THE GREAT AUSTRALIAN BIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT
    
72. REMAINS HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, CHARACTERIZED
    
73. BY VERY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
    
74. TEMPERATURES OF 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM HAS ABOUT 12 HOURS
    
75. TO INTENSIFY BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS MORE HOSTILE CONDITIONS OF
    
76. INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION. ALTHOUGH TC 27P
    
77. WILL PEAK CLOSE TO 261200Z AND WEAKEN PRIOR TO A LANDFALL ON
    
78. NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA, IT WILL MAKE A DEVASTATINGLY CLOSE APPROACH
    
79. TO LEARMONTH INSIDE 18 HOURS, WITH THE MOST POTENT QUADRANT TAKING
    
80. AIM AND INFLICTING POTENTIALLY HISTORIC IMPACTS ON THE EXMOUTH
    
81. PENINSULA. THE SYSTEM'S SHEER SIZE, DIRECTION OF TRAVEL, AND
    
82. LANDFALL POINT WILL EXACERBATE THE EFFECTS. AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE
    
83. AND TRAVELS TOWARDS GERALDTON, THESE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO RAPID
    
84. WEAKENING.
    
85. 
    
86. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON BRINGING TC 27P
    
87. OVER THE EXMOUTH PENINSULA WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 30 NM.
    
88. AFTER TAU 36, THE AI MODELS REMAIN FIRM IN A MORE EASTWARD, INLAND
    
89. TRACK, WHILE THE GFS, ECMWF, AND THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE FURTHER
    
90. TO THE WEST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS LAID WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
    
91. THROUGH TAU 24 ON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, THEN WITH LOWER
    
92. CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 36 TO TAU 72. THE TRACK IS THEN HEDGED SLIGHTLY
    
93. EAST OF THE CONSENSUS AND TOWARDS THE AI CLUSTER. THE INTENSITY
    
94. GUIDANCE IS SPLIT AT TAU 12. HWRF PEAKS THE STORM AT 115 KTS, WHILE
    
95. COAMPS-TC AND HAFS-A SUGGEST THAT STORM IS ALREADY PEAKING. THE
    
96. FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KTS IS ABOVE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND
    
97. CLOSEST TO THE RI AIDS AND HWRF. THE FORECAST RAPID WEAKENING PHASE
    
98. AT TAU 36 IS CLOSER TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY
    
99. FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
    
100. ASSOCIATED WITH RATE OF DECAY OVER LAND.
     
101. 
     
102. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
103.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
104.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
     
105. 
     
106. NNNN

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pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹越男  签发：董 林  2026 年 03 月 26 日 10 时
“纳蕾勒”将在澳大利亚西部沿海再次登陆

时  间: 3月26日08时（北京时,下同）

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “纳蕾勒”，NARELLE

中心位置: 南纬18.8度，东经116.2度

强度等级: 三级热带气旋

最大风力: 14级，44米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级

中心气压:  954百帕

参考位置:   距离澳大利亚西澳大利亚州埃克斯茅斯东北方向约410公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“纳蕾勒”由9级加强至14级

预报结论: “纳蕾勒”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西南方向移动，强度逐渐加强，将于27日白天在西澳大利亚州西部沿海再次登陆（43-54米/秒，14-16级，相当于我国的强台风级至超强台风级）。受其影响，26日至27日，西澳大利亚州西部沿海及海域将有10-13级大风，“纳蕾勒”中心经过的附近海域或地区风力可达14-16级，阵风17级至17级以上。未来三天，西澳大利亚州西部沿海地区将有大到暴雨，局地有大暴雨或特大暴雨（120-300毫米）。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年3月26日08时00分）