西澳北部近海四级强热带气旋“纳蕾勒”(34U/27P.Narelle) - 横穿澳大利亚北部再度出海发展，平行海岸西南行进 - BoM:120KT JTWC:125KT

pocketbox

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 61
Issued at 11:56 am WST on Wednesday 25 March 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Narelle, now Category 2 and expected to be severe overnight.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Bidyadanga to Exmouth, including Port Hedland, Karratha and Onslow, and extending inland to Pannawonica and Millstream.

Watch Zone
Ningaloo to Overlander Roadhouse, including Coral Bay, Carnarvon and Denham, and extending inland to Gascoyne Junction.

Cancelled Zone
Cape Leveque to south of Beagle Bay

Details of Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 11:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 17.5 degrees South 119.6 degrees East, estimated to be 330 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and 460 kilometres northeast of Karratha.

Movement: west southwest at 23 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle is now a Category 2 tropical cyclone and is expected to continue to intensify to reach severe (category 3) intensity overnight tonight.

Narelle is moving west southwest, roughly parallel to the Pilbara coast. Narelle is larger than usual and although the cyclone is located well north of the Pilbara, gales are likely to extend to the coast during today.

Later Friday, Narelle will turn towards the south, likely passing close to the North West Cape as a Category 4 system.

There is the potential for a severe impact on the far western Pilbara coast late Thursday, extending south to Denham during Friday.

On Saturday Narelle is expected to move to the south southeast with impacts extending to the Central West and then further inland and south across the South West Land Division.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE GUSTS up to 260 km/h may develop west of Onslow later on Thursday as Narelle moves closer to the NW Cape, and possibly extending south to Carnarvon during Friday.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h may develop on the Pilbara coast near Karratha late Wednesday or early Thursday, extending to Exmouth during Thursday, and to Carnarvon by late Thursday and south to Denham during Friday.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 100 km/h are possible between Bidyadanga and Port Hedland, extending west to Dampier later today . GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h may develop west to Exmouth during Thursday and extend further south to Overlander Roadhouse and inland to Gascoyne Junction during Friday.

Coastal residents between Exmouth and Denham are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone moves south down the Gascoyne coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Tides will be higher than normal between Port Hedland and North West Cape. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm AWST Wednesday 25 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 am March 25	1	17.2S	120.4E	35
+6hr	2 pm March 25	2	17.6S	119.2E	60
+12hr	8 pm March 25	2	18.0S	118.1E	80
+18hr	2 am March 26	3	18.4S	117.1E	80
+24hr	8 am March 26	3	18.8S	115.9E	75
+36hr	8 pm March 26	4	20.0S	114.2E	65
+48hr	8 am March 27	4	21.7S	113.0E	95
+60hr	8 pm March 27	3	24.4S	113.2E	135
+72hr	8 am March 28	2	28.1S	114.9E	195

LsfyHarold

FY-4B
西澳少见的暴力卷眼方式开眼的TC

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IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0702 UTC 25/03/2026
Name: Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Identifier: 34U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 17.7S
Longitude: 119.0E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (249 deg)
Speed of Movement: 12 knots (23 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots (110 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots (155 km/h)
Central Pressure: 978 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 130 nm (240 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 130 nm (240 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24HRS STT D1.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 160 nm (295 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  25/1200: 18.1S 117.9E:     030 (060):  070  (130):  966
+12:  25/1800: 18.5S 116.9E:     040 (080):  075  (140):  962
+18:  26/0000: 19.0S 115.9E:     040 (080):  080  (150):  957
+24:  26/0600: 19.6S 114.9E:     040 (075):  090  (165):  947
+36:  26/1800: 21.1S 113.5E:     040 (075):  105  (195):  932
+48:  27/0600: 23.5S 113.1E:     055 (100):  095  (175):  942
+60:  27/1800: 26.7S 114.0E:     080 (145):  060  (110):  972
+72:  28/0600: 30.8S 116.9E:     120 (220):  040  (075):  987
+96:  29/0600:             :              :            :     
+120: 30/0600:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Narelle is now a Category 2 system and is expected to reach
Category 3 this evening.

Narelle's location was estimated using animated visible satellite imagery and
surface observations from Rowley Shoals. Recent imagery is showing a marked
increase in spiral banding with an eye beginning to form.

Intensity analysed at 60 knots 10-min.

Dvorak analysis: DT=4.5 using a curved band pattern with a wrap of about 1.5
and using an eye pattern in EIR. Trend is D+, MET/PAT=4.0  FT/CI=4.0
constrained. Recent objective guidance: (1-min means 0530UTC): ADT 99 kn, AiDT
80 kn, DPRINT 66 kn, DMINT (2236UTC) 55 kn, SATCON 79 kn. Objective guidance
has climbed rapidly and may be a little ahead of the actual development.

Environmental conditions are generally favourable for development. SSTs around
29  30  C persist along Narelle  s track off the Pilbara coast but reduce as
Narelle turns and tracks south past Exmouth, dropping below 26  C roughly south
of Shark Bay. There is strong equatorward outflow, upper divergence and deep
moisture and conditions are expected to remain favourable for at least the next
48 hours. Intensification is expected to continue during Wednesday and Thursday
with a period of rapid intensification likely. Peak intensity of category 4 is
forecast, but a peak intensity of Category 5 is possible. As Narelle moves
south down the west coast it is likely to begin to weaken as increased wind
shear and cooler SSTs begin to impact its intensity. The system is likely to
impact the west coast as a severe tropical cyclone and then weaken as it moves
inland across the southwest of WA. It is likely to undergo transition to a mid
latitude cold cored system by Sunday as it moves into the Southern Ocean.  

Narelle is being steered to the west southwest by the mid level ridge located
over central Australia. By late Thursday a mid level trough in the Indian Ocean
becomes the more influential factor and Narelle is expected to be steered south
down the west coast during Friday and then south southeast across the South
West Land Division during Saturday.  There is high confidence in this track but
timing (speed along the track) remains uncertain.  

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/1330 UTC.

---

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 62
Issued at 3:07 pm WST on Wednesday 25 March 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Narelle, now Category 2 and expected to be severe overnight. Potential severe impacts for the west Pilbara and Gascoyne coasts.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Sandfire to Coral Bay, including Port Hedland, Karratha, Onslow and Exmouth, and extending inland to Pannawonica.

Watch Zone
Coral Bay to Kalbarri, including Carnarvon and Denham, and extending inland to Gascoyne Junction and Murchison.

Cancelled Zone
Bidyadanga to Sandfire.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 2:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 17.7 degrees South 119.0 degrees East, estimated to be 295 kilometres north of Port Hedland and 405 kilometres north northeast of Karratha.

Movement: west southwest at 23 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle is now a Category 2 tropical cyclone and is expected to continue to intensify to reach severe (category 3) intensity tonight.

Narelle is moving west southwest, roughly parallel to the Pilbara coast. Narelle is larger than usual and although the cyclone is located well north of the Pilbara, gales are likely to extend to the coast this afternoon and evening.

Later Friday, Narelle will turn towards the south, likely passing close to the North West Cape as a Category 4 system.

There is the potential for a severe impact on the far western Pilbara coast late Thursday, extending south to Denham during Friday.

On Saturday Narelle is expected to be weakening as it moves quickly to the south southeast with impacts extending to the Central West and then further inland and south across the South West Land Division.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE GUSTS up to 260 km/h may develop west of Onslow later on Thursday as Narelle moves closer to the NW Cape, and possibly extending south to Carnarvon during Friday. Wind gusts to 195 km/h may extend south to Denham later Friday.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h may develop on the Pilbara coast near Karratha early Thursday, extending to Exmouth during Thursday, and south to Carnarvon and then to Denham and the Overlander Roadhouse during Friday.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 100 km/h are possible between Sandfire and Port Hedland, extending west to Dampier tonight. GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h may develop west to Exmouth during Thursday and extend further south to Kalbarri and inland to the Murchison Roadhouse during Friday.

Coastal residents between Exmouth and Denham are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone moves south down the Gascoyne coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Tides will be higher than normal between Port Hedland and North West Cape. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 pm AWST Wednesday 25 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 pm March 25	2	17.7S	119.0E	35
+6hr	8 pm March 25	3	18.1S	117.9E	60
+12hr	2 am March 26	3	18.5S	116.9E	80
+18hr	8 am March 26	3	19.0S	115.9E	80
+24hr	2 pm March 26	4	19.6S	114.9E	75
+36hr	2 am March 27	4	21.1S	113.5E	75
+48hr	2 pm March 27	4	23.5S	113.1E	100
+60hr	2 am March 28	2	26.7S	114.0E	145
+72hr	2 pm March 28	tropical low	30.8S	116.9E	220

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 030   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   250600Z --- NEAR 17.8S 119.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 119.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 18.6S 117.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 19.9S 115.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 21.6S 114.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 24.2S 113.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 31.7S 118.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 22 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 38.7S 124.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 118.5E.
25MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
152 NM NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 250600Z IS 978 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 250900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING
   
4. NR
   
5. 030//
   
6. RMKS/
   
7. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
8. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
9. 
   
10. SUMMARY:
    
11.    INITIAL POSITION: 17.8S 119.0E
    
12.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
    
13.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 152 NM NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA
    
14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
    
15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET
    
16. 
    
17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
18. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY
    
19. INTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27P (NARELLE) AS IT TRANSITS
    
20. SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STR CENTERED OVER AUSTRALIA.
    
21. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
    
22. WARMING, RUGGED EYE FEATURE DEVELOPING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
    
23. CENTER (LLCC). HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ALLOWING
    
24. THE SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION TO TIGHTLY WRAP INTO THE LLCC.
    
25. SUPPORTING THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) ARE WARM (29-30 C) SEA
    
26. SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (5-10 KTS)
    
27. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS ASSESSED
    
28. WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE COMBINATION OF AGENCY DVORAK AND
    
29. OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
    
30. 
    
31. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 250423Z OCEANSAT-3 OSCAT PASS
    
32. 
    
33. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    
34. POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA
    
35. 
    
36. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
37.    PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
38.    CIMSS SATCON: 78 KTS AT 250600Z
    
39.    CIMSS ADT: 99 KTS AT 250600Z
    
40.    CIMSS AIDT: 82 KTS AT 250600Z
    
41.    CIMSS D-MINT: 75 KTS AT 250600Z
    
42.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 71 KTS AT 250600Z
    
43. 
    
44. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
    
45.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
    
46.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
47.    OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
    
48. 
    
49. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
50.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
51.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
52.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
53. 
    
54. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
55. 
    
56. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
57. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
58. 
    
59. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 27P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND
    
60. TOWARDS THE NORTH WEST CAPE, WESTERN AUSTRALIA. LANDFALL NEAR THE
    
61. PENINSULA IS EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36 AND THE TRACK OF THE
    
62. SYSTEM IS LAID SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF TOWNS OF EXMOUTH AND
    
63. LEARMONTH, WITH THE 64 KT WIND RADII LIKELY FULLY ENCOMPASSING THE
    
64. AREA. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DUE TO
    
65. CONTINUOUSLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
    
66. REACH PEAK INTENSITY OF 100-110 KTS BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 36. AFTER
    
67. LANDFALL, TC NARELLE WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE AXIS OF THE STEERING
    
68. RIDGE START TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
    
69. FORECAST. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL TAU 96, DUE TO INCREASING
    
70. SHEAR, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION
    
71. AND COOLER (26-27 C) SSTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE NORTH WEST CAPE
    
72. IMPACTING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION THAT REMAINS OVER
    
73. WATER. BY TAU 96 TC 27P WILL COMPLETE ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
    
74. (ETT), WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS
    
75. EXPECTED TO REEMERGE OVER WATERS JUST SOUTH OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA,
    
76. WITH INTENSITY OF 35-40 KTS.
    
77. 
    
78. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
    
79. AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH JUST 40 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT
    
80. LANDFALL AND DETERMINISTIC ECMWF BEING THE MOST WESTERN OUTLIER,
    
81. KEEPING THE TRACK OFFSHORE UNTIL TAU 48. THE REMAINDER OF THE
    
82. GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, AS WELL AS THE AI MODELS INDICATE LANDFALL OVER
    
83. THE NORTH WEST CAPE, FOLLOWED BY A TURN INLAND. TRACK FORECAST
    
84. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AROUND TAU 72, WITH THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
    
85. EXPANDING TO 180 NM. IN REGARD TO INTENSITY, OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
    
86. THE OFFICIAL JTWC PREDICTION IS ASSESSED AS MEDIUM. ALL AVAILABLE
    
87. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEMBERS AGREE ON THE TIMELINE OF
    
88. INTENSIFICATION AND SUBSEQUENT WEAKENING, HOWEVER BETWEEN NUMEROUS
    
89. RI-AIDS TRIGGERING AND MORE CONSERVATIVE DETERMINISTIC MODEL
    
90. GUIDANCE, THE PEAK INTENSITY IS STILL SPREAD BETWEEN 90 AND 120
    
91. KTS. JTWC FORECAST IS LAID SLIGHTLY ABOVE, BUT CLOSE TO THE
    
92. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
    
93. 
    
94. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
95.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
96.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
    
97.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
98.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
    
99. NNNN

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pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：张怡驰、曹越男  签发：董 林  2026 年 03 月 25 日 18 时
“纳蕾勒”向西偏南方向移动

时  间: 3月25日14时（北京时,下同）

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “纳蕾勒”，NARELLE

中心位置: 南纬17.7度，东经119.0度

强度等级: 二级热带气旋

最大风力: 11级，31米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压:  978百帕

参考位置:   距离澳大利亚西澳大利亚州布鲁姆西北方向约350公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“纳蕾勒”由8级加强至11级

预报结论: “纳蕾勒”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度逐渐加强。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年3月25日14时00分）

pocketbox

IDW24100
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 63
Issued at 5:51 pm WST on Wednesday 25 March 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle has strengthened to category 3. Potential
severe impacts for the west Pilbara and Gascoyne coasts.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Sandfire to Coral Bay, including Port Hedland, Karratha, Onslow
and Exmouth, and extending inland to Pannawonica.

Watch zone: Coral Bay to Kalbarri, including Carnarvon and Denham, and
extending inland to Gascoyne Junction and Murchison.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 5:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 120 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 165 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 17.9 degrees South 118.5 degrees East,
estimated to be 270 kilometres north of Port Hedland and 360 kilometres north
northeast of Karratha.
Movement: west southwest at 22 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is now a Category 3 tropical cyclone and is
expected to continue to strengthen.

Narelle is moving west southwest, roughly parallel to the Pilbara coast.
Narelle is larger than usual and although the cyclone is located well north of
the Pilbara, gales are likely to extend to the coast this evening.

On Friday, Narelle will turn towards the south, likely passing close to the
North West Cape as a Category 4 system.

There is the potential for a severe impact on the far western Pilbara coast
from late Thursday, extending south to Denham during Friday.

On Saturday Narelle is expected to be weakening as it moves quickly to the
south southeast with impacts extending to the Central West and then further
inland and south across the South West Land Division.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS up to 260 km/h may develop west of Onslow later on
Thursday as Narelle moves closer to the North West Cape, and possibly extend
south to Carnarvon during Friday. Wind gusts to 195 km/h may extend south to
Denham later Friday.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h may develop on the Pilbara coast
near Karratha early Thursday, extending west to Exmouth during Thursday, and
south to Carnarvon and then to Denham and the Overlander Roadhouse during
Friday.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 100 km/h are possible between Sandfire and
Port Hedland, extending west to Dampier tonight. GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
to 120 km/h may develop west to Exmouth during Thursday and extend further
south to Kalbarri and inland to the Murchison Roadhouse during Friday.

Coastal residents between Onslow and Denham are specifically warned of a
DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone moves south down the Gascoyne coast. Tides
are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING
WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Tides will be higher than normal between Port Hedland and Onslow. LARGE WAVES
may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts
and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm AWST Wednesday 25 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling  13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	5 pm March 25	3	17.9S	118.5E	35
+6hr	11 pm March 25	3	18.1S	117.5E	60
+12hr	5 am March 26	3	18.6S	116.5E	80
+18hr	11 am March 26	3	19.2S	115.6E	90
+24hr	5 pm March 26	4	19.8S	114.7E	90
+36hr	5 am March 27	4	21.6S	113.4E	95
+48hr	5 pm March 27	4	24.3S	113.4E	115
+60hr	5 am March 28	2	28.0S	115.0E	165
+72hr	5 pm March 28	tropical low	32.5S	118.8E	225

Ragasa

眼区2:30pm左右通过Rowley Shoals

莎莎

納蕾勒經過了Rowley Shoals的珊瑚礁群







強度還有機會回到l澳式Cat.4

pocketbox

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1319 UTC 25/03/2026
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Identifier: 34U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 18.0S
Longitude: 118.0E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (251 deg)
Speed of Movement: 12 knots (22 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots (120 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots (165 km/h)
Central Pressure: 974 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 140 nm (260 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 140 nm (260 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm (55 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1001 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 170 nm (315 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  25/1800: 18.3S 117.0E:     035 (060):  075  (140):  962
+12:  26/0000: 18.9S 116.0E:     040 (080):  080  (150):  958
+18:  26/0600: 19.5S 115.1E:     050 (090):  090  (165):  948
+24:  26/1200: 20.2S 114.3E:     050 (095):  100  (185):  938
+36:  27/0000: 22.2S 113.3E:     055 (100):  105  (195):  933
+48:  27/1200: 25.1S 113.7E:     070 (125):  080  (150):  958
+60:  28/0000: 29.1S 115.8E:     095 (175):  045  (085):  985
+72:  28/1200: 33.6S 119.7E:     130 (245):  030  (055):  994
+96:  29/1200:             :              :            :     
+120: 30/1200:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
The satellite signature of Narelle has plateaued somewhat over the last few
hours, with an earlier irregular eye now covered by a recent convective bloom
near the centre. Location was estimated from animated IR imagery plus a recent
(0951) MWI pass.   

Dvorak analysis: DT=4.0 using a curved band pattern with a wrap greater than
1.0 and the band being white or colder. MET is 3.5 based on a 24 hour D trend,
with PAT adjusted up to 4.0. Recent objective guidance at 1200 UTC: (1-min
means): ADT 107 kn, AiDT 101 kn, DPRINT 83 kn, SATCON (0830 UTC) 78 kn.
Proximate observations at Rowley Shoals peaked at 53 knots 10-min average at
1019 UTC around 40 nautical miles ENE of the centre. Intensity is analysed at
65 knots, slightly above subjective Dvorak (though noting the earlier DTs of
4.5 when an irregular eye was present), biased upward towards the DPRINT
estimate (ADT and AiDT are suspected to be too high).  

Environmental conditions are generally favourable for development. SSTs around
29  30  C persist along Narelle  s track off the Pilbara coast but reduce as
Narelle turns and tracks south past Exmouth, dropping below 26  C roughly south
of Shark Bay. CIMSS AMV analysis shows good upper outflow and divergence around
the system, particularly on the poleward side. Deep layer wind shear is low,
analysed around 10 to 15 knots easterly. AIRI guidance suggests a strong
probability of rapid intensification over the next 24 to 36 hours.
Intensification above the standard rate is therefore forecast, peaking at
category 4 (105 knots) on Friday morning. A peak intensity of Category 5 is
possible.

As Narelle moves south down the west coast of Western Australia it is likely to
begin to weaken due to cooler SSTs and increased wind shear, plus proximity to
the coast itself. The system is likely to impact the west coast of Western
Australia as a severe tropical cyclone and then weaken as it moves inland
across the southwest of WA. It is likely to undergo transition to a
mid-latitude cold cored system by Sunday as it moves into the Southern Ocean.  

Narelle is being steered to the west southwest by a mid-level ridge located
over central Australia. By late Thursday a mid level trough in the Indian Ocean
becomes the more influential factor and Narelle is expected to be steered south
down the west coast during Friday and then south southeast across the South
West Land Division during Saturday.  There is high confidence in this track but
timing (speed along the track) remains more uncertain.  

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/1930 UTC.

---

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 64
Issued at 8:42 pm WST on Wednesday 25 March 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle remains at category 3 strength. Potential severe impacts for the west Pilbara and Gascoyne coasts.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Pardoo Roadhouse to Cape Cuvier, including Port Hedland, Karratha, Onslow, Exmouth, and Coral Bay, and extending inland to Pannawonica.

Watch Zone
South of Cape Cuvier to Dongara, including Carnarvon, Denham, and Geraldton, extending inland to Gascoyne Junction, Murchison, and Yalgoo.

Cancelled Zone
Sandfire to east of Pardoo Roadhouse.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 8:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 120 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 165 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 18.0 degrees South 118.0 degrees East, estimated to be 265 kilometres north northwest of Port Hedland and 325 kilometres north northeast of Karratha.

Movement: west southwest at 22 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is a category 3 tropical cyclone and is expected to continue to strengthen.

Narelle is moving west southwest, roughly parallel to the Pilbara coast. Narelle is larger than usual and although the cyclone is located well north of the Pilbara, gales are likely to extend to the coast tonight.

On Friday, Narelle will turn towards the south, likely passing close to the North West Cape as a category 4 cyclone.

There is the potential for a severe impact on the far western Pilbara coast from late Thursday, extending south to Denham during Friday.

On Saturday Narelle is expected to be weakening as it moves quickly to the south southeast with impacts extending to the Central West and then further inland and south across the South West Land Division.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS up to 260 km/h may develop west of Onslow later on Thursday as Narelle moves closer to the North West Cape, and possibly extend south to Carnarvon during Friday. Wind gusts to 195 km/h may extend south to Denham later Friday.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h may develop on the Pilbara coast near Karratha early Thursday, extending west to Exmouth during Thursday, and south to Carnarvon and then to Denham and the Overlander Roadhouse during Friday.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 100 km/h are possible between Pardoo Roadhouse and Port Hedland, extending west to Dampier tonight. GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h may develop west to Exmouth during Thursday and extend further south to Kalbarri and inland to the Murchison Roadhouse during Friday, and to Geraldton early Saturday.

Coastal residents between Onslow and Denham are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone moves south down the Gascoyne coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Tides will be higher than normal between Port Hedland and Onslow. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 am AWST Thursday 26 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 pm March 25	3	18.0S	118.0E	35
+6hr	2 am March 26	3	18.3S	117.0E	60
+12hr	8 am March 26	3	18.9S	116.0E	80
+18hr	2 pm March 26	4	19.5S	115.1E	90
+24hr	8 pm March 26	4	20.2S	114.3E	95
+36hr	8 am March 27	4	22.2S	113.3E	100
+48hr	8 pm March 27	3	25.1S	113.7E	125
+60hr	8 am March 28	1	29.1S	115.8E	175
+72hr	8 pm March 28	tropical low	33.6S	119.7E	245

LsfyHarold

FY-4B
打太极ing