西太／北印各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2025年7-12月）

桑美和伊欧凯

帕劳以东又有新系统组织，暂未编扰，有一定机会成台

符龙虎

大神分析一下，10月4日在菲律宾东部生成低压吗

符龙虎

根据中央气象台消息，十一假期后期在南海和西北太平洋上会有新台风生成，也就是21号台风麦德姆，4日移入南海，5-6日将影响华南南部。

dgitg5266

As of 8:00 AM today, 09 October 2025, Tropical Storm with international name "NAKRI" is still being monitored outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) meanwhile a Low Pressure Area (LPA 10c) is also being monitored inside the Philippine Area of Responsibilty and is "UNLIKELY" to develop into a Tropical Depression within the next 24 hours.
All are advised to monitor updates from DOST-PAGASA.

LPA 10c 13.3N 118.9E

dgitg5266

10-09-18Z

傳統數值GFS、ECMWF有反應



GFS決定性預報與性質分析



AI數值GENC、AIFS、FNV3沒反應

红豆棒冰冰

dgitg5266 发表于 2025-10-9 10:25
As of 8:00 AM today, 09 October 2025, Tropical Storm with international name "NAKRI" is still being  ...

按照版规，这种PAGASA自编的LPA是不能作为开帖依据的，所以我合并到云团帖了

第一条 下列任一情况，会员即可开帖扰动讨论帖：
1、全球范围：NRL、FNMOC等网站给某新系统编扰动号（注：SSD自编的扰动原则上不单独开帖）
2、西北太平洋：CMA、HKO、SMG、CWA、JMA、KMA等机构将某新系统评为TD
3、其他洋区：管理该区域的RSMC或TCWC给某新系统编号并发报[1][2]
4、其他特殊系统或特殊情况经版主或管理员允许
[1] “发报”指发出包含但不限于预测定位、路径图或区域热带气旋预警的报文，具体开帖凭据遵循惯例或由管理团队判定。
[2] BoM与FMS的早于NRL/FNMOC编号的自编号系统，发布在“南半球各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖”中。
https://tf.sunrui.ink/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=74

dgitg5266

As of 2:00 PM today, 09 October 2025, Tropical Storm Quedan (international name "NAKRI") is still being monitored inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
Meanwhile, a Low Pressure Area (LPA 10c) is also being monitored inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and is "UNLIKELY" to develop into a Tropical Depression within the next 24 hours.
All are advised to monitor updates from DOST-PAGASA.

dgitg5266

10-10-00Z

傳統數值GFS、ECMWF的生成訊號開始明顯



但GFS的決定性預報把強度調弱 最多只有TD上限



AI系集仍然沒有反應

恒信金仁

风神真的变风神才行

dgitg5266

As of 8:00 AM today, 14 October 2025, the Low Pressure area (LPA 10e) is being monitored OUTSIDE the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and has a "MEDIUM" chance to develop into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.
Meanwhile, another Low Pressure area (LPA 10f) is being monitored INSIDE the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and is "UNLIKELY" to develop into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.

All are advised to monitor updates from DOST-PAGASA.