西澳北部近海四级强热带气旋“纳蕾勒”(34U/27P.Narelle) - 横穿澳大利亚北部再度出海发展，平行海岸西南行进 - BoM:120KT JTWC:125KT

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IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 55
Issued at 5:59 pm WST on Tuesday 24 March 2026

Headline:
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone early Wednesday morning and move roughly parallel to the Pilbara coast on Wednesday and Thursday.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
South of Beagle Bay to Kuri Bay, and Dampier to Bidyadanga, including Dampier, Karratha and Port Hedland.

Watch Zone
Exmouth to Dampier, including Exmouth and Onslow.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 5:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 16.1 degrees South 123.3 degrees East, estimated to be 145 kilometres west southwest of Kuri Bay and 235 kilometres north northeast of Broome.

Movement: west southwest at 17 kilometres per hour.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle has moved offshore of the west Kimberley coast and forecast to redevelop into a tropical cyclone early Wednesday morning.

Narelle will continue moving to the west southwest, roughly parallel to the Pilbara coast during Wednesday and Thursday, and is forecast to reach severe (category 3) intensity Wednesday night. While Narelle is over waters to the north of the Pilbara during Wednesday and Thursday, gales may extend to the Pilbara coast during this time.

Later Thursday and Friday the system is expected to take a turn to the south, close to the North West Cape and impacts may extend further inland of the western Pilbara. Narelle will then move to the southeast, towards the WA west coast later Friday and Saturday, with impacts expected as far south as the Lower West on the weekend.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 90 km/h may develop today along the coast between Cockatoo Island and Kuri Bay and extend to south of Beagle Bay overnight before gradually easing during Wednesday morning, as the system moves further away from the west Kimberley coast.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 100 km/h may develop along the coast between Bidyadanga and De Grey during Wednesday morning. Gales are forecast to extend further west along the Pilbara coast to Port Hedland and Karratha later Wednesday. GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h may develop west to Exmouth later Thursday.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 140 km/h may develop about the North West Cape, including Exmouth Thursday night. These winds may extend east to Karratha if the system takes a track further south on Thursday.

Isolated HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING may occur across parts of the north and west Kimberley tonight and during Wednesday.

Tides will be higher than normal between Port Hedland and North West Cape. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm AWST Tuesday 24 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	5 pm March 24	tropical low	16.1S	123.3E	35
+6hr	11 pm March 24	tropical low	16.6S	122.0E	60
+12hr	5 am March 25	1	17.0S	120.8E	80
+18hr	11 am March 25	2	17.4S	119.5E	80
+24hr	5 pm March 25	2	17.8S	118.4E	75
+36hr	5 am March 26	3	18.6S	116.3E	70
+48hr	5 pm March 26	4	19.7S	114.4E	85
+60hr	5 am March 27	4	21.3S	113.1E	110
+72hr	5 pm March 27	3	23.8S	113.0E	145

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IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1305 UTC 24/03/2026
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Identifier: 34U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 16.3S
Longitude: 122.8E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: southwest (236 deg)
Speed of Movement: 10 knots (18 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 990 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/12HRS SST:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 999 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  24/1800: 16.7S 121.4E:     030 (060):  040  (075):  991
+12:  25/0000: 17.2S 120.1E:     040 (080):  050  (095):  985
+18:  25/0600: 17.7S 118.9E:     045 (085):  055  (100):  981
+24:  25/1200: 17.9S 117.9E:     045 (080):  065  (120):  974
+36:  26/0000: 18.7S 115.8E:     040 (075):  085  (155):  954
+48:  26/1200: 19.9S 113.9E:     050 (090):  100  (185):  938
+60:  27/0000: 21.6S 112.9E:     065 (115):  095  (175):  943
+72:  27/1200: 24.3S 113.0E:     085 (155):  085  (155):  952
+96:  28/1200: 32.1S 117.8E:     145 (275):  040  (075):  986
+120: 29/1200: 39.5S 123.8E:     200 (370):  030  (055):  988
REMARKS:
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle has moved offshore of the northwest Kimberley
coast. Position is estimated using Broome radar and microwave with reasonable
confidence. Deep convection is evident north of the centre, with some deep
convection starting to occur near the system center.

Intensity 35 kn in the northeast quadrant, with observations at Koolan Island
and Adele Island recording intermitant gale force winds and destructive gusts.


Dvorak analysis: DT=2.5 using a curved band pattern with wrap of 0.2.-0.3. No
MET.  FT/CI=2.5. Objective guidance: (1-min means at 1130UTC): ADT 45kn, AiDT
37 kn, DPRINT 38 kn, DMINT (1125 UTC) 49kn

Environmental conditions are mostly favourable for development - SSTs around 29
30  C persist along Narelle  s track off the Pilbara coast but reduce as
Narelle turns and tracks south past Exmouth, dropping below 26  C roughly south
of Shark Bay; strong equatorward outflow and upper divergence and deep
moisture.  An upper trough lies a long way to the southwest of Narelle, and may
assist Narelle's intensification as it gets closer.  

Narelle is located on the northwest side of an upper anticyclone, under
easterly vertical wind shear (CIMSS analysis at 0900 UTC 15-20 knots). Narelle
forecast to remain in moderate shear in the next few days, however, NWP
guidance indicates that this will not significantly inhibiting intensification.
Redevelopment to a tropical cyclone is expected early Wednesday morning and
intensification expected to continue Wednesday and Thursday to category 4
intensity (100 kn).  

Narelle is following the northwest side of a mid-level anticyclone to the
south, tracking to the west southwest. By Friday the anticyclone moves further
east and an approaching upper trough aids in a more southerly then
southeasterly path. The most likely scenario is a track down the west coast.
Gradual weakening is then expected as the environment starts to become less
favourable, however Narelle may remain at severe TC intensity south to the
Shark Bay region and at cyclone intensity further south towards Perth.
Although the guidance is more confident for this type of scenario moving down
the west coast the timing does vary considerably.   

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/1930 UTC.

---

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 56
Issued at 9:00 pm WST on Tuesday 24 March 2026

Headline:
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone Wednesday morning and move roughly parallel to the Pilbara coast on Wednesday and Thursday.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
South of Beagle Bay to Kuri Bay, and Dampier to Bidyadanga, including Dampier, Karratha and Port Hedland.

Watch Zone
Coral Bay to Dampier, including Exmouth and Onslow.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 8:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 16.3 degrees South 122.8 degrees East, estimated to be 195 kilometres north northeast of Broome and 630 kilometres northeast of Port Hedland.

Movement: southwest at 18 kilometres per hour.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle has moved offshore of the west Kimberley coast and forecast to redevelop into a tropical cyclone early Wednesday morning.

Narelle will continue moving to the west southwest, roughly parallel to the Pilbara coast during Wednesday and Thursday, and is forecast to reach severe (category 3) intensity Wednesday night. While Narelle is over waters to the north of the Pilbara during Wednesday and Thursday, gales may extend to the Pilbara coast during this time.

Later Thursday and Friday the system is expected to take a turn to the south, close to the North West Cape and impacts may extend further inland of the western Pilbara and along the Ningaloo coast. Narelle will then move to the southeast, towards the WA west coast later Friday and Saturday, with impacts extending along the Gascoyne coast and expected as far south as the Lower West on the weekend.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 90 km/h are possible along the coast between Cockatoo Island and Kuri Bay and extend to south of Beagle Bay overnight before gradually easing during Wednesday morning, as the system moves further away from the west Kimberley coast. A severe weather warning for damaging wind gusts with showers is in place over remaining parts of far west Kimberley.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 100 km/h may develop along the coast between Bidyadanga and De Grey during Wednesday morning. Gales are forecast to extend further west along the Pilbara coast to Port Hedland and Karratha later Wednesday. GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h may develop west to Exmouth Thursday afternoon extend further south to Coral Bay during the evening.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 140 km/h may develop about the North West Cape, including Exmouth and Coral Bay Thursday night. These winds may extend east to Karratha if the system takes a track further south on Thursday.

Isolated HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING may occur across parts of the north and west Kimberley overnight and during Wednesday.

Tides will be higher than normal between Port Hedland and North West Cape. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 am AWST Wednesday 25 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 pm March 24	tropical low	16.3S	122.8E	35
+6hr	2 am March 25	1	16.7S	121.4E	60
+12hr	8 am March 25	2	17.2S	120.1E	80
+18hr	2 pm March 25	2	17.7S	118.9E	85
+24hr	8 pm March 25	3	17.9S	117.9E	80
+36hr	8 am March 26	3	18.7S	115.8E	75
+48hr	8 pm March 26	4	19.9S	113.9E	90
+60hr	8 am March 27	4	21.6S	112.9E	115
+72hr	8 pm March 27	3	24.3S	113.0E	155

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WTXS31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 027   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241200Z --- NEAR 16.4S 122.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 122.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 17.2S 120.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 18.0S 117.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 19.0S 116.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 20.3S 114.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 24.7S 113.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 22 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 32.7S 118.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 39.8S 123.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 121.8E.
24MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 91
NM NORTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 241200Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 241500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING
   
4. NR
   
5. 027//
   
6. RMKS/
   
7. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
8. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
9. 
   
10. SUMMARY:
    
11.    INITIAL POSITION: 16.4S 122.4E
    
12.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
    
13.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 91 NM NORTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA
    
14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
    
15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET
    
16. 
    
17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
18. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SPIRAL
    
19. BANDING OF DEEP CONVECTION UNDERGOING CONTINUOUS DEVELOPMENT AS THE
    
20. LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27P
    
21. (NARELLE) IS TRANSITING OVER THE WARM (29-30 C) WATERS OF THE
    
22. INDIAN OCEAN, NORTHWEST OF THE DAMPIER PENINSULA, AUSTRALIA. CLOUD
    
23. TOPS HAVE BEEN COOLING, WHILE THE SIZE OF CONVECTIVE CANOPY IS
    
24. INCREASING AND FULLY OBSCURING THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
    
25. PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY
    
26. FROM BROOME, AUSTRALIA AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 241123Z F16 SSMIS
    
27. 37GHZ MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ALSO
    
28. ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, BASED ON THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE
    
29. AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. ADDITIONAL
    
30. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE, PRIMARILY WESTWARD AND
    
31. POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND A DEEP
    
32. MOISTURE LAYER PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN.
    
33. 
    
34. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
35. 
    
36. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    
37. POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA
    
38. 
    
39. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
40.    PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
41.    ADRM: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
42.    CIMSS SATCON: 49 KTS AT 241124Z
    
43.    CIMSS ADT: 45 KTS AT 241130Z
    
44.    CIMSS AIDT: 39 KTS AT 241230Z
    
45.    CIMSS D-MINT: 49 KTS AT 241125Z
    
46.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 41 KTS AT 241230Z
    
47. 
    
48. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
    
49.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
50.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
51.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE DUAL-CHANNEL
    
52. 
    
53. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
54.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
55.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
56.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
57. 
    
58. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
59. 
    
60. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
61. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
62. 
    
63. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 27P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS TRAJECTORY
    
64. ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    
65. CENTERED OVER AUSTRALIA, WHILE CONCURRENTLY UNDERGOING RAPID
    
66. INTENSIFICATION. A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KTS IS ANTICIPATED AROUND
    
67. TAU 48, JUST PRIOR TO THE SYSTEM ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS AND
    
68. APPROACHING NORTH WEST CAPE, AUSTRALIA. A PERIOD OF RAPID
    
69. INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL
    
70. CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH TAU 48. MOST RECENT GUIDANCE VERY NARROWLY
    
71. SHIFTS THE TRACK WESTWARD, WITH REMAINING POSSIBILITY FOR LANDFALL
    
72. OVER WESTERN PORTION OF THE NORTH WEST CAPE, OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
    
73. THE PENINSULA, CLOSER TO NINGALOO. AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS
    
74. IT WILL BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD. SUBSEQUENTLY, THE SYSTEM IS
    
75. EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO TERRAIN-INDUCED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS,
    
76. INCREASING MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND RAPIDLY INCREASING VWS
    
77. ASSOCIATED WITH INTERACTION WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET. AROUND TAU 96,
    
78. SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT) IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE, WITH COMPLETION
    
79. ANTICIPATED BY OR BEFORE TAU 120.
    
80. 
    
81. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
    
82. AGREEMENT FOR THE INITIAL 72 HOURS. THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU
    
83. 72 IS 35 NM AND INCREASES TO 165 NM BY THE TIME TC NARELLE BEGINS ITS
    
84. STT NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA. SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO
    
85. THE NORTH WEST CAPE REGION ARE STILL ANTICIPATED DESPITE THE SUBTLE
    
86. WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK FORECAST. REGARDING INTENSITY GUIDANCE,
    
87. ALL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMELINE FOR
    
88. INTENSIFICATION, LANDFALL, AND SUBSEQUENT DECAY; HOWEVER, THE OFFICIAL
    
89. JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DUE TO A 35
    
90. KT SPREAD IN PEAK INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
    
91. INDICATES A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KTS. MULTIPLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION
    
92. (RI) AIDS ARE TRIGGERED INDICATING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RI POTENTIAL
    
93. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. NON-RI GUIDANCE (GFS, HAFS, COAMPS-TC AND
    
94. STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS) IS SLIGHTLY MORE CONSERVATIVE EXPECTING
    
95. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 85-90 KTS. THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS THEREFORE
    
96. POSITIONED JUST ABOVE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, ACCOUNTING FOR THE
    
97. STRONG RI SIGNAL, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
    
98. 
    
99. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
100.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
     
101.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
     
102.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
103.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
     
104. NNNN

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pocketbox

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 57
Issued at 11:41 pm WST on Tuesday 24 March 2026

Headline:
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone Wednesday morning and move roughly parallel to the Pilbara coast on Wednesday and Thursday.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
South of Beagle Bay to Kuri Bay, and Dampier to Bidyadanga, including Dampier, Karratha and Port Hedland.

Watch Zone
Coral Bay to Dampier, including Exmouth and Onslow.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 11:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 16.6 degrees South 122.0 degrees East, estimated to be 155 kilometres north of Broome and 545 kilometres northeast of Port Hedland.

Movement: west southwest at 23 kilometres per hour.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle has moved offshore of the west Kimberley coast and forecast to redevelop into a tropical cyclone early Wednesday morning.

Narelle will continue moving to the west southwest, roughly parallel to the Pilbara coast during Wednesday and Thursday, and is forecast to reach severe (category 3) intensity Wednesday night. While Narelle is over waters to the north of the Pilbara during Wednesday and Thursday, gales may extend to the Pilbara coast during this time.

Later Thursday and Friday the system is expected to take a turn to the south, close to the North West Cape and impacts may extend further inland of the western Pilbara and along the Ningaloo coast. Narelle will then move to the southeast, towards the WA west coast later Friday and Saturday, with impacts extending along the Gascoyne coast and expected as far south as the Lower West on the weekend.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 90 km/h are possible along the coast between Cockatoo Island and Kuri Bay and extend to south of Beagle Bay overnight before gradually easing during Wednesday morning, as the system moves further away from the west Kimberley coast. A severe weather warning for damaging wind gusts with showers is in place over remaining parts of far west Kimberley.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 100 km/h may develop along the coast between Bidyadanga and De Grey during Wednesday morning. Gales are forecast to extend further west along the Pilbara coast to Port Hedland and Karratha later Wednesday. GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h may develop west to Exmouth Thursday afternoon extend further south to Coral Bay during the evening.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 140 km/h may develop about the North West Cape, including Exmouth and Coral Bay Thursday night. These winds may extend east to Karratha if the system takes a track further south on Thursday.

Isolated HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING may occur across parts of the north and west Kimberley overnight and during Wednesday.

Tides will be higher than normal between Port Hedland and North West Cape. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am AWST Wednesday 25 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	11 pm March 24	tropical low	16.6S	122.0E	35
+6hr	5 am March 25	1	17.0S	120.7E	60
+12hr	11 am March 25	2	17.4S	119.5E	80
+18hr	5 pm March 25	2	17.8S	118.4E	75
+24hr	11 pm March 25	3	18.1S	117.4E	70
+36hr	11 am March 26	4	19.1S	115.4E	65
+48hr	11 pm March 26	4	20.3S	113.7E	75
+60hr	11 am March 27	4	22.3S	112.8E	110
+72hr	11 pm March 27	3	25.2S	113.3E	145

Ragasa

IDW24100
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 58
Issued at 2:58 am WST on Wednesday 25 March 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Narelle has redeveloped into a tropical cyclone as it moves
away from the Kimberley coast.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Cape Leveque to south of Beagle Bay, and Bidyadanga to Mardie,
including Port Hedland and Karratha.

Watch zone: Mardie to Coral Bay, including Onslow and Exmouth.

Cancelled zone: Kuri Bay to Cockatoo Island.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 2:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 16.8 degrees South 121.4 degrees East,
estimated to be 155 kilometres northwest of Broome and 490 kilometres northeast
of Port Hedland.
Movement: west southwest at 24 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle has redeveloped into a Category 1 tropical cyclone.

Narelle will continue moving to the west southwest, roughly parallel to the
Pilbara coast during Wednesday and Thursday, and is forecast to reach severe
(category 3) intensity late Wednesday or early Thursday. During this time gales
may extend to the coast while Narelle remains over waters to the north of the
Pilbara.

Later on Thursday and during Friday, Narelle will turn towards the south,
likely passing close to the North West Cape. During this time impacts may
extend to the inland western Pilbara and along the Ningaloo coast. Narelle will
move to the south southeast during Friday and Saturday, with impacts extending
along the Gascoyne coast and expected as far south as the Lower West on the
weekend.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 90 km/h are possible in coastal parts of the
Dampier Peninsula north of Broome overnight, including Beagle Bay and Cape
Leveque, before gradually easing during Wednesday morning as Narelle moves
further away from the west Kimberley coast. A Severe Weather Warning for
showers with damaging wind gusts is in place over parts of far west Kimberley.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 100 km/h may develop along the coast between
Bidyadanga and De Grey during Wednesday morning. Gales are forecast to extend
further west along the Pilbara coast to Port Hedland and Karratha later
Wednesday. GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h may develop west to
Exmouth during Thursday afternoon and extend further south to Coral Bay during
the evening.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 140 km/h may develop on the Pilbara coast near
Karratha late Wednesday or early Thursday, extending to Exmouth during
Thursday, and to Coral Bay by early Friday.

Isolated HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING may occur across parts
of the north and west Kimberley during Wednesday.

Tides will be higher than normal between Port Hedland and North West Cape.
LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts
and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 am AWST Wednesday 25 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling  13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 am March 25	1	16.8S	121.4E	35
+6hr	8 am March 25	1	17.2S	120.0E	60
+12hr	2 pm March 25	2	17.7S	118.9E	75
+18hr	8 pm March 25	2	17.9S	117.9E	75
+24hr	2 am March 26	3	18.3S	116.9E	65
+36hr	2 pm March 26	3	19.4S	114.9E	65
+48hr	2 am March 27	4	20.7S	113.4E	85
+60hr	2 pm March 27	4	23.1S	112.8E	115
+72hr	2 am March 28	3	26.1S	113.6E	160

1. IDW27600
   
2. TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
   
3. Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
   
4. at: 1909 UTC 24/03/2026
   
5. Name: Tropical Cyclone Narelle
   
6. Identifier: 34U
   
7. Data At: 1800 UTC
   
8. Latitude: 16.8S
   
9. Longitude: 121.4E
   
10. Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
    
11. Movement Towards: west southwest (245 deg)
    
12. Speed of Movement: 13 knots (24 km/h)
    
13. Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h)
    
14. Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h)
    
15. Central Pressure: 986 hPa
    
16. Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
    
17. Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
    
18. Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
    
19. Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
    
20. Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
    
21. Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
    
22. Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
    
23. Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
    
24. Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
    
25. Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
    
26. Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/18HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
    
27. Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
    
28. Radius of outermost closed isobar: 140 nm (260 km)
    
29. FORECAST DATA
    
30. Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
    
31. (UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
    
32. +06:  25/0000: 17.2S 120.0E:     030 (060):  045  (085):  986
    
33. +12:  25/0600: 17.7S 118.9E:     040 (075):  050  (095):  982
    
34. +18:  25/1200: 17.9S 117.9E:     040 (075):  055  (100):  978
    
35. +24:  25/1800: 18.3S 116.9E:     035 (065):  065  (120):  968
    
36. +36:  26/0600: 19.4S 114.9E:     035 (065):  085  (155):  950
    
37. +48:  26/1800: 20.7S 113.4E:     045 (085):  095  (175):  940
    
38. +60:  27/0600: 23.1S 112.8E:     065 (115):  090  (165):  945
    
39. +72:  27/1800: 26.1S 113.6E:     090 (160):  070  (130):  963
    
40. +96:  28/1800: 34.5S 119.7E:     165 (300):  030  (055):  989
    
41. +120: 29/1800:             :              :            :     
    
42. REMARKS:
    
43. Tropical Cyclone Narelle has redeveloped offshore of the northwest Kimberley
    
44. coast. Position is estimated using Broome radar with good confidence.  
    
45. 
    
46. Dvorak analysis: DT=2.5 using a curved band pattern with wrap of 0.4. No MET
    
47. available.  FT/CI=2.5. Recent objective guidance: (1-min means): ADT (1800 UTC)
    
48. 57 kn, AiDT (1800 UTC) 50 kn, DPRINT (1800 UTC) 42 kn. A 1547 OSCAT pass
    
49. indicated 30-35 knot winds in all quadrants, with a peak of 40 knots south of
    
50. the centre.  
    
51. 
    
52. Intensity analysed at 40 knots 10-min.
    
53. 
    
54. Environmental conditions are generally favourable for development. SSTs around
    
55. 29  30  C persist along Narelle  s track off the Pilbara coast but reduce as
    
56. Narelle turns and tracks south past Exmouth, dropping below 26  C roughly south
    
57. of Shark Bay. Strong equatorward outflow and upper divergence combine with deep
    
58. moisture.  An upper trough lies a long way to the southwest of Narelle, and may
    
59. assist Narelle's intensification as it gets closer.
    
60. 
    
61. Narelle is located on the northwest side of an upper anticyclone, under
    
62. easterly vertical wind shear (CIMSS analysis at 1200 UTC 12 knots from the
    
63. east). Narelle forecast to remain in moderate shear over the next few days,
    
64. however, NWP guidance indicates that this will not significantly inhibit
    
65. intensification as the system is relatively large and remains pouched in deep
    
66. moisture. Intensification is expected to continue during Wednesday and Thursday
    
67. with a period of rapid intensification likely. Peak intensity of category 4 is
    
68. forecast, but a peak intensity of Category 5 is possible.  
    
69. 
    
70. Narelle is following the northwest side of a mid-level anticyclone to the
    
71. south, tracking to the west southwest. By Friday the anticyclone moves further
    
72. east and an approaching upper trough aids in a more southerly then
    
73. southeasterly path. The most likely scenario is a track down the west coast.
    
74. Gradual weakening is then expected as the environment starts to become less
    
75. favourable, however Narelle may remain at severe TC intensity south to the
    
76. Shark Bay region and at cyclone intensity further south to Geraldton. There is
    
77. high confidence in this track but timing (speed along the track) remains
    
78. uncertain.  
    
79. 
    
80. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
    
81. ==
    
82. The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/0130 UTC.

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Ragasa

WTXS31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 028   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241800Z --- NEAR 17.0S 121.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 121.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 17.7S 119.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 18.6S 117.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 19.7S 115.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 21.4S 114.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 27.3S 115.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 33.6S 119.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 120.9E.
24MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 67
NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 241800Z IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 242100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING
   
4. NR 028//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 17.0S 121.5E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 67 NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27P (NARELLE) CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE OVER
    
18. WATER WEST OF THE DAMPIER PENINSULA AS DEPICTED BY ANIMATED
    
19. ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY. DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS
    
20. AND THE CIRCULATION HAS BEEN ABLE TO STRENGTHEN CONVECTIVE BANDING
    
21. SOUTH OF THE CENTER. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, CLOUD TOP
    
22. TEMPERATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO COOL AS 27P INTENSIFIES.
    
23. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
    
24. DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 29 C AND 30
    
25. C, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), AND MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW.
    
26. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON RADAR
    
27. DATA FROM BROOME, AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS
    
28. ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF 241547Z
    
29. OSCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA, IMPROVED PRESENTATION NOTED VIA EIR
    
30. IMAGERY, AND AN UPTREND AMONGST SUBJECTIVE AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE
    
31. INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
    
32. 
    
33. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 241547Z OSCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
34. 
    
35. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    
36. POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA
    
37. 
    
38. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
39.    PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
40.    ADRM: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
41.    CIMSS ADT: 59 KTS AT 241900Z
    
42.    CIMSS AIDT: 50 KTS AT 241730Z
    
43.    CIMSS D-MINT: 47 KTS AT 241409Z
    
44.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 41 KTS AT 241900Z
    
45. 
    
46. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
    
47.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
    
48.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
49.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
    
50. 
    
51. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
52.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
53.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
54.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
55. 
    
56. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
57. 
    
58. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
59. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
60. 
    
61. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
    
62. SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    
63. POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA UNTIL TAU 36. AFTERWARDS, THE
    
64. TRACK WILL TURN SOUTHWARD AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE STR AXIS
    
65. CULMINATING IN THE FIFTH LANDFALL FOR THE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH
    
66. WEST CAPE JUST AFTER TAU 48. AROUND TAU 72, CONTINUED DRY AIR
    
67. ENTRAINMENT ENHANCED BY INTERACTION WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
    
68. INITIATE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION OF THE SYSTEM. THE VORTEX MAY
    
69. RETAIN SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS UNTIL JUST AFTER TAU 72,
    
70. THOUGH THE TRANSITION IS FORECASTED TO BE COMPLETED BY TAU 96. TC
    
71. 27P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
    
72. RAPID INTENSIFICATION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST, THOUGH THE EXPECTED
    
73. PERIOD FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION HAS SHIFTED BACK TO BETWEEN TAU 24
    
74. AND TAU 36. THE PEAK INTENSITY IS FORECASTED TO BE 100 KTS AT TAU
    
75. 36. AFTERWARDS, A STEADY INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY
    
76. AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL START TO SLOWLY DECAY THE SYSTEM JUST BEFORE
    
77. LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WITH AN INTENSITY
    
78. OF 95 KTS, THEN QUICKLY FALL TO 75 KTS AT AROUND TAU 72, AND
    
79. FINALLY COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AROUND TAU 96 WITH 45 KTS
    
80. INTENSITIES.
    
81. 
    
82. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
    
83. AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD UNDER 70 NM UNTIL TAU 72,
    
84. INCREASING TO 190 NM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC
    
85. FORECASTED TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
    
86. HIGH CONFIDENCE UNTIL TAU 72 AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD DUE TO
    
87. UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE SHARPNESS OF THE SOUTHWARD TURN AROUND
    
88. THE STR AXIS AND THE EFFECTS OF SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION, ESPECIALLY
    
89. WITH THE INCREASED INFLUENCE FROM THE STJ NEAR TAU 72. INTENSITY
    
90. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION BEFORE
    
91. TAU 36, THOUGH THERE IS A SPREAD BETWEEN 75 KTS AND 120 KTS ON PEAK
    
92. INTENSITIES. THE OFFICIAL JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED
    
93. SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, BUT BELOW THE MORE
    
94. AGGRESSIVE RAPID INTENSIFICATION MODELS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
    
95. 
    
96. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
97.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
98.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
    
99.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
100.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
     
101. NNNN

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ygsj24

IDW24100
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 59
Issued at 5:58 am WST on Wednesday 25 March 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Narelle has redeveloped into a tropical cyclone and is moving
away from the Kimberley coast.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Cape Leveque to south of Beagle Bay, and Bidyadanga to Mardie,
including Port Hedland and Karratha.

Watch zone: Mardie to Cape Cuvier, including Onslow, Exmouth and Coral Bay.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 5:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 16.9 degrees South 120.8 degrees East,
estimated to be 195 kilometres northwest of Broome and 445 kilometres north
northeast of Port Hedland.
Movement: west southwest at 23 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle has redeveloped into a Category 1 tropical cyclone.

Narelle will continue moving to the west southwest, roughly parallel to the
Pilbara coast during today and Thursday, and is forecast to reach severe
(category 3) intensity late Wednesday or early Thursday. During this time gales
may extend to the coast while Narelle remains over waters to the north of the
Pilbara.

Later on Thursday and during Friday, Narelle will turn towards the south,
likely passing close to the North West Cape. During this time impacts may
extend to the inland western Pilbara and along the Ningaloo coast. Narelle will
move to the south southeast during Friday and Saturday, with impacts extending
along the Gascoyne coast and expected as far south as the Lower West on the
weekend.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 90 km/h are possible in coastal parts of the
Dampier Peninsula north of Broome overnight, including Beagle Bay and Cape
Leveque, before gradually easing during Wednesday morning as Narelle moves
further away from the west Kimberley coast. A Severe Weather Warning for
showers with damaging wind gusts is in place over parts of far west Kimberley.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 100 km/h may develop along the coast between
Bidyadanga and De Grey during Wednesday morning. Gales are forecast to extend
further west along the Pilbara coast to Port Hedland and Karratha later
Wednesday. GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h may develop west to
Exmouth during Thursday afternoon and extend further south to Cape Cuvier by
Friday morning.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 140 km/h may develop on the Pilbara coast near
Karratha late Wednesday or early Thursday, extending to Exmouth during
Thursday, and to Coral Bay by early Friday.

Isolated HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING may occur across parts
of the north and west Kimberley during Wednesday.

Tides will be higher than normal between Port Hedland and North West Cape.
LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts
and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am AWST Wednesday 25 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling  13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	5 am March 25	1	16.9S	120.8E	35
+6hr	11 am March 25	1	17.4S	119.5E	60
+12hr	5 pm March 25	2	17.8S	118.4E	80
+18hr	11 pm March 25	2	18.1S	117.4E	80
+24hr	5 am March 26	3	18.5S	116.4E	70
+36hr	5 pm March 26	4	19.7S	114.5E	70
+48hr	5 am March 27	4	21.2S	113.2E	90
+60hr	5 pm March 27	3	23.8S	113.0E	125
+72hr	5 am March 28	2	27.1S	114.2E	180

pocketbox

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0121 UTC 25/03/2026
Name: Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Identifier: 34U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 17.2S
Longitude: 120.4E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (249 deg)
Speed of Movement: 12 knots (23 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots (120 km/h)
Central Pressure: 985 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  25/0600: 17.6S 119.2E:     030 (060):  050  (095):  984
+12:  25/1200: 18.0S 118.1E:     040 (080):  055  (100):  981
+18:  25/1800: 18.4S 117.1E:     045 (080):  065  (120):  970
+24:  26/0000: 18.8S 115.9E:     040 (075):  075  (140):  961
+36:  26/1200: 20.0S 114.2E:     035 (065):  090  (165):  947
+48:  27/0000: 21.7S 113.0E:     050 (095):  095  (175):  942
+60:  27/1200: 24.4S 113.2E:     075 (135):  080  (150):  956
+72:  28/0000: 28.1S 114.9E:     105 (195):  050  (095):  981
+96:  29/0000: 35.8S 121.3E:     165 (300):  030  (055):  990
+120: 30/0000:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Narelle is now a Category 1 system and is expected to continue
to intensify north of the Pilbara coast.

Narelle's location was estimated using Broome radar, visible satellite imagery
and recent microwave pass with good confidence. Recent imagery is showing a
marked increase in spiral banding.

Intensity analysed at 45 knots 10-min.

Dvorak analysis: DT=3.0 using a curved band pattern with wrap of 0.5-0.6. Trend
is D, MET/PAT=3.0  FT/CI=3.0. Recent objective guidance: (1-min means 0000UTC):
ADT 61 kn, AiDT 51 kn, DPRINT 48 kn, DMINT (2236UTC) 55 kn, SATCON 60 kn. A
recent SAR pass at 2140 UTC indicated large area of 30-40 knot winds in all
quadrants. Intensity is consistent with most objective guidance.

Environmental conditions are generally favourable for development. SSTs around
29  30  C persist along Narelle  s track off the Pilbara coast but reduce as
Narelle turns and tracks south past Exmouth, dropping below 26  C roughly south
of Shark Bay. There is strong equatorward outflow, upper divergence and deep
moisture and conditions are expected to remain favourable for at least the next
48 hours. Intensification is expected to continue during Wednesday and Thursday
with a period of rapid intensification likely. Peak intensity of category 4 is
forecast, but a peak intensity of Category 5 is possible.  

Narelle is being steered to the west southwest by the mid level ridge located
over central Australia. By late Thursday a mid level trough in the Indian Ocean
becomes the more influential factor and Narelle is expected to be steered south
down the west coast during Friday and then south southeast across the South
West Land Division during Saturday. The system is likely to impact the west
coast as a severe tropical cyclone and then weaken as it moves southeast across
the southwest of WA. It is likely to undergo transition to a mid latitude cold
cored system by Sunday as it moves into the Southern Ocean. There is high
confidence in this track but timing (speed along the track) remains uncertain.  

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/0730 UTC.

---

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 60
Issued at 8:57 am WST on Wednesday 25 March 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Narelle is intensifying with the risk of gale force winds developing along the eastern Pilbara coast today.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Cape Leveque to south of Beagle Bay, and Bidyadanga to Onslow, including Port Hedland and Karratha and extending inland to Pannawonica and Millstream.

Watch Zone
West of Onslow to Carnarvon, including Exmouth and Coral Bay.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 8:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 17.2 degrees South 120.4 degrees East, estimated to be 210 kilometres west northwest of Broome and 395 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland.

Movement: west southwest at 23 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle has redeveloped into a Category 1 tropical cyclone overnight and is expected to continue to intensify to reach severe (category 3) intensity overnight tonight.

Narelle is moving west southwest, roughly parallel to the Pilbara coast. Although Narelle is located well north of the Pilbara gales are likely to extend to the coast as Narelle is larger than usual.

During Friday, Narelle will turn towards the south, likely passing close to the North West Cape. During this time significant impacts may extend to the inland western Pilbara and then south along the Gascoyne coast.

On Saturday Narelle is expected to move to the south southeast with impacts extending to the Central West and then further inland and south across the South West Land Division.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 90 km/h are possible in coastal parts of the Dampier Peninsula north of Broome this morning, including Beagle Bay and Cape Leveque, before gradually easing during this morning as Narelle moves further away from the west Kimberley coast. A Severe Weather Warning for showers with damaging wind gusts is in place over parts of far west Kimberley.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 100 km/h may develop along the coast between Bidyadanga and De Grey this morning. Gales are forecast to extend further west along the Pilbara coast to Port Hedland and Karratha later today. GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h may develop west to Exmouth during Thursday afternoon and extend further south to Carnarvon by Friday morning.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 140 km/h may develop on the Pilbara coast near Karratha late Wednesday or early Thursday, extending to Exmouth during Thursday, and to Coral Bay by early Friday.

Coastal residents between Exmouth and Carnarvon are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone moves south down the Gascoyne coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Tides will be higher than normal between Port Hedland and North West Cape. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Isolated HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING may occur across parts of the north and west Kimberley during Wednesday.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm AWST Wednesday 25 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 am March 25	1	17.2S	120.4E	35
+6hr	2 pm March 25	2	17.6S	119.2E	60
+12hr	8 pm March 25	2	18.0S	118.1E	80
+18hr	2 am March 26	3	18.4S	117.1E	80
+24hr	8 am March 26	3	18.8S	115.9E	75
+36hr	8 pm March 26	4	20.0S	114.2E	65
+48hr	8 am March 27	4	21.7S	113.0E	95
+60hr	8 pm March 27	3	24.4S	113.2E	135
+72hr	8 am March 28	2	28.1S	114.9E	195

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 029   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   250000Z --- NEAR 17.4S 120.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 120.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 18.2S 117.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 19.2S 115.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 20.7S 114.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 23.0S 114.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 29.1S 115.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 36.1S 121.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 119.5E.
25MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
129 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 250000Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 250300
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING
   
4. NR 029//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 17.4S 120.0E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 129 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27P (NARELLE) HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE
    
18. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING COMPLETELY
    
19. SURROUNDING THE CENTER AS DEPICTED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
    
20. SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI). CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL
    
21. AND THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
    
22. DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 C TO 30 C), LOW
    
23. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE
    
24. INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED
    
25. MSI OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), CONSISTENT WITH
    
26. EARLIER 242236Z F16 SSMIS DATA AND SOUTHERLY WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM
    
27. ROWLEY SHOALS AT 240000Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS
    
28. ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PARTIAL 242140Z RCM-1
    
29. SAR PASS DEPICTING A MEAN VALUE OF 56 KTS.
    
30. 
    
31. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 242140Z RCM-1 SAR DATA
    
32. 
    
33. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    
34. POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA
    
35. 
    
36. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
37.    PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
38.    CIMSS SATCON: 61 KTS AT 250100Z
    
39.    CIMSS ADT: 61 KTS AT 250100Z
    
40.    CIMSS AIDT: 54 KTS AT 250100Z
    
41.    CIMSS D-MINT: 55 KTS AT 242236Z
    
42.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 55 KTS AT 250100Z
    
43. 
    
44. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
    
45.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
    
46.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
47.    OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
    
48. 
    
49. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
50.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
51.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
52.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
53. 
    
54. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
55. 
    
56. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
57. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
58. 
    
59. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 27P WILL CONTINUE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER
    
60. THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED
    
61. OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA UNTIL TAU 24. THE TRACK WILL THEN TURN
    
62. SOUTHWARD AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE STR AXIS, RESULTING IN AN
    
63. EXPECTED LANDFALL FOR THE SYSTEM OVER NEAR EXMOUTH BETWEEN TAU 36
    
64. AND TAU 48. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72, CONTINUED DRY AIR
    
65. ENTRAINMENT ENHANCED BY INTERACTION WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
    
66. INITIATE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF THE SYSTEM, WITH THE
    
67. TRANSITION FORECASTED TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU 96. TC 27P IS EXPECTED
    
68. TO CONTINUE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. PEAK
    
69. INTENSITY IS FORECASTED TO BE 100 KTS AT TAU 36. AFTERWARDS, A
    
70. STEADY INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND
    
71. COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26 C TO 27 C) AROUND THE NORTH
    
72. WEST CAPE WILL START TO SLOWLY DECAY THE SYSTEM JUST BEFORE
    
73. LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL WITH AN INTENSITY
    
74. OF 95 KTS, THEN QUICKLY DECAY FROM 85 KTS TO 50 KTS BETWEEN TAU 48
    
75. AND TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
    
76. WHILE TRANSITING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN WESTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 27P IS
    
77. EXPECTED TO REEMERGE OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA
    
78. INTO THE SOUTHERN OCEAN, AND WILL BE COMPLETELY EXTRATROPICAL BY
    
79. TAU 96 WITH 40 KTS INTENSITIES.
    
80. 
    
81. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREEMENT HAS
    
82. DEGRADED THIS RUN WITH CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASING UP TO 100 NM
    
83. AROUND TAU 60 BEFORE DECREASING TO 50 NM AT TAU 72, SHOWING
    
84. INCREASING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR WESTWARD THE CENTER WILL
    
85. MOVE AROUND THE STR AXIS. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
    
86. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO 130 NM THROUGH EXTRATROPICAL
    
87. TRANSITION. THE JTWC FORECASTED TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE
    
88. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE UNTIL TAU 72 AND LOW
    
89. CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EFFECTS OF
    
90. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, ESPECIALLY WITH THE INCREASED INFLUENCE
    
91. FROM THE STJ NEAR TAU 72. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
    
92. ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION BEFORE TAU 24 WITH COAMPS-TC RAPID
    
93. INTENSITY PROBABILITIES SHOOTING UP TO 78 PERCENT IN THE LATEST
    
94. RUN. THERE IS A SPREAD BETWEEN 75 KTS AND 125 KTS ON PEAK
    
95. INTENSITIES. THE OFFICIAL JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED
    
96. SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, BUT STILL BELOW THE MORE
    
97. AGGRESSIVE RAPID INTENSIFICATION MODELS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
    
98. 
    
99. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
100.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
101.    TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
     
102.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
103.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
     
104. NNNN

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pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：张怡驰、刘涛  签发：董 林  2026 年 03 月 25 日 10 时
“纳蕾勒”向西偏南方向移动

时  间: 3月25日08时（北京时,下同）

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “纳蕾勒”，NARELLE

中心位置: 南纬17.2度，东经120.4度

强度等级: 一级热带气旋

最大风力: 9级，23米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压:  985百帕

参考位置:   距离澳大利亚西澳大利亚州布鲁姆西北方向约220公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“纳蕾勒”由8级加强至9级

预报结论: “纳蕾勒”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度逐渐加强。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年3月25日08时00分）