西澳北部近海四级强热带气旋“纳蕾勒”(34U/27P.Narelle) - 横穿澳大利亚北部再度出海发展，平行海岸西南行进 - BoM:120KT JTWC:125KT

Ragasa

WTXS31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 024   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231800Z --- NEAR 15.5S 125.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 125.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 16.3S 123.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 17.0S 121.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 17.9S 119.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 18.7S 117.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 21.3S 113.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 26.0S 114.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 31.7S 117.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 125.3E.
23MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
252 NM NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 231800Z IS 996 MB. NEXT WARNINGS AT
240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 232100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING
   
4. NR 024//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 15.5S 125.8E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 252 NM NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
    
14. 
    
15. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
16. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
17. CYCLONE (TC) 27P OVER THE KIMBERLEY PLATEAU WITH DEEP CONVECTION
    
18. FORMING ALONG THE COAST AS THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM
    
19. BEGINS TO EMERGE OVER THE TIMOR SEA. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
    
20. UNFAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WHILE 27P REMAINS OVER LAND. THE
    
21. INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON LOW-LEVEL
    
22. CLOUD WRAPPING PRESENT IN ANIMATED EIR. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
    
23. CENTER REMAINS FULLY OBSCURED BY DEEP CONVECTION, MAKING
    
24. POSITIONING DIFFICULT WITH A LACK OF SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA;
    
25. HOWEVER, AS 27P CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE RANGE OF THE RADAR IN
    
26. BROOME, THE REMAINING POSITION UNCERTAINTY SHOULD BE SWEPT AWAY. THE
    
27. INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED
    
28. ON PERSISTENCE, SUPPORTED BY A SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM TROUGHTON
    
29. ISLAND READING 33 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 1900Z, WHICH ALSO LENDS
    
30. SUPPORT
    
31. TO THE INITIAL POSITION.
    
32. 
    
33. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
34. 
    
35. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    
36. CENTERED OVER AUSTRALIA
    
37. 
    
38. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
39.    PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
    
40. 
    
41. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
    
42.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
    
43.    SST: OVER LAND
    
44.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
    
45.    OTHER FACTORS: TERRAIN INTERACTION
    
46. 
    
47. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
48.    INITIAL POSITION: LOW
    
49.    INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
    
50.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
51. 
    
52. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
53. 
    
54. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
55. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
56. 
    
57. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 27P (NARELLE) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
    
58. TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT REMAINS UNDER
    
59. THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR CENTERED OVER AUSTRALIA.
    
60. BEGINNING AROUND TAU 72, NARELLE WILL BEGIN TO TRACK ALONG THE
    
61. WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND ASSUME A SOUTHWARD TO
    
62. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 120 AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE
    
63. AXIS. REGARDING INTENSITY, 27P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY
    
64. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WHILE IT REMAINS MOSTLY OVER LAND. ONCE
    
65. REEMERGING OVER WATER AROUND TAU 12, NARELLE IS FORECAST TO
    
66. INTENSIFY WITHIN THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH A PERIOD
    
67. OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION FORECAST TO OCCUR BETWEEN TAU 24-48. 27P
    
68. IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY UNTIL ITS FINAL LANDFALL, WITH THE
    
69. POTENTIAL FOR THE PEAK INTENSITY TO OCCUR JUST AFTER TAU 72 AT AN
    
70. INTENSITY HIGHER THAN 95KTS, WHICH IS UNABLE TO BE REPRESENTED ON
    
71. THE JTWC FORECAST DUE TO THE ESTABLISHED FORECAST INTERVAL. ONCE THE
    
72. STORM MAKES LANDFALL BETWEEN TAU 72-96, IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
    
73. SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO
    
74. TERRAIN INTERACTION, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
    
75. INDUCED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. 27P IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUBTROPICAL
    
76. TRANSITION AROUND TAU 96 AND COMPLETE THE TRANSITION NO LATER THAN TAU
    
77. 120.
    
78. 
    
79. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
    
80. AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH MINIMAL ALONG-TRACK SPREAD AND A
    
81. 100 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD DURING THE SAME PERIOD. TRACK GUIDANCE
    
82. DIVERGES FROM THERE, AS MODELS DISAGREE OVER THE SPEED OF ADVANCE
    
83. AND THE TIMING OF 27P ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS AS IT HEADS POLEWARD.
    
84. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A 250 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72 WHILE
    
85. THE STORM IS AT ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA) TO LEARMONTH. THE
    
86. AI MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY TRACKS 27P RIGHT OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF
    
87. LEARMONTH, WHILE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS KEEP 27P JUST OFFSHORE.
    
88. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
    
89. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 0-72 AND LOW CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 72-120.
    
90. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
    
91. FORECAST PERIOD, WITH ALL AVAILABLE MODELS INDICATING A PEAK
    
92. INTENSITY AT TAU 60-72 BETWEEN 80-95 KTS. THE JTWC INTENSITY
    
93. FORECAST IS ALIGNED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY
    
94. CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
    
95. 
    
96. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
97.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
98.    TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
    
99.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
100.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
     
101. NNNN

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ygsj24

IDW24100
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 51
Issued at 5:41 am WST on Tuesday 24 March 2026

Headline:
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle is moving offshore of the west Kimberley coast and
is expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone during Tuesday night.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Beagle Bay to Kuri Bay.

Watch zone: Cape Preston to Wallal Downs, including Karratha and Port Hedland.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 5:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 15.3 degrees South 125.0 degrees East,
estimated to be 55 kilometres east northeast of Kuri Bay and 415 kilometres
northeast of Broome.
Movement: west southwest at 25 kilometres per hour.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle is moving offshore of the west Kimberley coast
while heading west southwest. A Severe Weather Warning is current in the area
for damaging winds and possible heavy rainfall.

The system will continue moving to the west southwest, roughly parallel to the
Pilbara coast during today and Wednesday. There is a High chance that it
redevelops into a tropical cyclone overnight Tuesday, and it is forecast to
reach severe (category 3) intensity by Wednesday evening. While the system is
likely to be over waters well to the north of the Pilbara during Wednesday,
gales may extend south and over the Pilbara coast.

Longer term, the system is expected to begin turning to the southeast and
towards the WA coast late on Thursday or early on Friday. The system is most
likely to make landfall over the Central West or Gascoyne coastlines, but may
also impact the west Pilbara. There is significant uncertainty as to exactly
when are where the system will cross the coast.

Hazards:
Isolated HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING may occur across parts
of the north Kimberley this morning.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 90 km/h may develop along the coast between
Kuri Bay and Beagle Bay from later this morning. Gales in this area are
expected to then ease by Wednesday morning, as the system moves further away
from the west Kimberley coast.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 100 km/h may develop along the coast between
Wallal Downs and Port Hedland from Wednesday afternoon, especially if the
system takes a track further south. Gales may extend further west to Cape
Preston (including Karratha) Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts
and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am AWST Tuesday 24 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling  13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	5 am March 24	tropical low	15.3S	125.0E	55
+6hr	11 am March 24	tropical low	15.7S	124.1E	75
+12hr	5 pm March 24	1	16.1S	123.1E	95
+18hr	11 pm March 24	1	16.4S	122.0E	95
+24hr	5 am March 25	2	16.7S	120.8E	85
+36hr	5 pm March 25	3	17.5S	118.5E	75
+48hr	5 am March 26	3	18.2S	116.4E	85
+60hr	5 pm March 26	4	19.3S	114.3E	105
+72hr	5 am March 27	4	20.6S	112.7E	130

pocketbox

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0149 UTC 24/03/2026
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Identifier: 34U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.2S
Longitude: 124.5E
Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (250 deg)
Speed of Movement: 11 knots (20 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Central Pressure: 992 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS STT D1.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 170 nm (315 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  24/0600: 15.7S 123.5E:     035 (065):  035  (065):  995
+12:  24/1200: 16.1S 122.4E:     045 (085):  045  (080):  991
+18:  24/1800: 16.6S 121.2E:     050 (090):  045  (085):  990
+24:  25/0000: 17.0S 120.1E:     050 (090):  050  (095):  987
+36:  25/1200: 17.8S 117.8E:     040 (075):  065  (120):  976
+48:  26/0000: 18.6S 115.7E:     050 (090):  085  (155):  955
+60:  26/1200: 19.7S 113.7E:     060 (110):  100  (185):  941
+72:  27/0000: 21.3S 112.3E:     075 (135):  095  (175):  944
+96:  28/0000: 26.7S 112.9E:     120 (220):  065  (120):  971
+120: 29/0000: 34.6S 118.9E:     210 (395):  030  (055):  994
REMARKS:
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle is moving offshore off the northwest Kimberley
coast. Position is estimated using microwave and animated Vis imagery with
reasonable confidence.  

Narelle has maintained very good convective structure throughout its traverse
across northern Australia and is moved back over water with deep convection
north of the centre with improving curvature.

Intensity 35 kn with gales estimated in northern quadrants.  
Dvorak analysis: DT=2.0 usng a curved band pattern with wrap of 0.3. No MET.
FT/CI=2.0. Limited objective guidance is available, (1-min means): DPRINT
(2250UTC) 37 kn.

Environmental conditions are mostly favourable for development until late week
or over the weekend. Warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of around 29  30  C
are present off the Kimberley coast, and persist along Narelle  s track off the
Pilbara coast. SSTs get cooler as Narelle turns and tracks south past Exmouth,
dropping below 26  C roughly south of Shark Bay. Good equatorward outflow is
presence and good upper divergence. An upper trough lies a long way to the
southwest of Narelle, and may assist Narelle's intensification as it gets
closer. Deep moisture is present and expected to remain until late week when
dry air begins wrapping around the system from the west.  

Narelle is located on the northwest side of an upper anticyclone, under
easterly vertical wind shear (CIMSS analysis at 0000 UTC 15-20 knots). Narelle
forecast to remain in moderate shear, however, NWP guidance indicates that this
will not significantly inhibiting intensification. Redevelopment to a tropical
cyclone is expected tonight with intensification is expected to continue
overnight Thursday into Friday morning to category 4 intensity (100 kn).  

Narelle is following the northwest side of a mid-level anticyclone to the
south, tracking to the west southwest. By late week the anticyclone moves
further east and an approaching upper trough aids in a more southerly then
southeasterly path. The most likely scenario is a track down the west coast
making a crossing point highly uncertain.  

Gradual weakening is then expected as the environment starts to become less
favourable however Narelle may remain at severe TC intensity south to the Shark
Bay region and at cyclone intensity towards the Lower West coast north of
Perth. Although the guidance is more confident for this type of scenario moving
down the west coast the timing does vary considerably.  

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/0730 UTC.

---

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 52
Issued at 9:00 am WST on Tuesday 24 March 2026

Headline:
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle is moving offshore of the west Kimberley coast and is expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone tonight and move roughly parallel to the Pilbara coast on Wednesday and Thursday.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Beagle Bay to Kuri Bay, and De Grey to Wallal Downs.

Watch Zone
Exmouth to De Grey, including Exmouth, Onslow, Karratha and Port Hedland.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 8:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 45 kilometres of 15.2 degrees South 124.5 degrees East, estimated to be 30 kilometres north of Kuri Bay and 390 kilometres northeast of Broome.

Movement: west southwest at 20 kilometres per hour.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle is heading west southwest and moving offshore of the west Kimberley coast. It is forecast to redevelop into a tropical cyclone tonight. A Severe Weather Warning is current in the north Kimberley for damaging winds and possible heavy rainfall.

The system will continue moving to the west southwest, roughly parallel to the Pilbara coast during Wednesday and Thursday, and is forecast to reach severe (category 3) intensity Wednesday night. While Narelle is likely to be over waters well to the north of the Pilbara during Wednesday and Thursday, gales may extend south over the Pilbara coast during this time.

On Friday Narelle is expected to turn south to southeast towards the WA west coast with impacts expected as far south as the Lower West on the weekend.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 90 km/h may develop along the coast between Kuri Bay and Beagle Bay this morning and gradually ease by Wednesday morning, as the system moves further away from the west Kimberley coast.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 100 km/h may develop along the coast between Wallal Downs and De Grey during Wednesday, especially if the system takes a track further south. Gales may extend further along the Pilbara coast during later and Thursday morning, possibly reaching Exmouth Thursday afternoon.

Isolated HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING may occur across parts of the north and west Kimberley today.

Tides will be higher than normal between Port Hedland and North West Cape.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm AWST Tuesday 24 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 am March 24	tropical low	15.2S	124.5E	45
+6hr	2 pm March 24	tropical low	15.7S	123.5E	65
+12hr	8 pm March 24	1	16.1S	122.4E	85
+18hr	2 am March 25	1	16.6S	121.2E	90
+24hr	8 am March 25	2	17.0S	120.1E	90
+36hr	8 pm March 25	3	17.8S	117.8E	75
+48hr	8 am March 26	3	18.6S	115.7E	90
+60hr	8 pm March 26	4	19.7S	113.7E	110
+72hr	8 am March 27	4	21.3S	112.3E	135

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 025   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240000Z --- NEAR 15.8S 124.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 124.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 16.7S 122.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 17.5S 120.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 18.3S 118.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 19.4S 116.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 21.8S 113.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 27.5S 115.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 33.0S 118.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 124.3E.
24MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
195 NM NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 240000Z IS 996 MB. NEXT WARNINGS AT
240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 240300
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING
   
4. NR 025//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 15.8S 124.8E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 195 NM NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
    
14. 
    
15. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
16. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27P (NARELLE) CONTINUES TO TRACK
    
17. WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND IS APPROACHING THE WATERS EAST OF MANGROVE
    
18. POINT, AUSTRALIA AS DEPICTED BY ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
    
19. IMAGERY (MSI). DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS, MAINLY WITHIN THE NORTHERN
    
20. HALF OF THE CIRCULATION, THOUGH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
    
21. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS ASSESSED AS MARGINAL.
    
22. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED WITH THE CENTER
    
23. TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND
    
24. APPROACHING WARM WATERS WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 29 C
    
25. TO 30 C. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE THE
    
26. CENTER HAVING BECOME HEAVILY OBSCURED BY FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE
    
27. BANDING AND BROAD TURNING IDENTIFIED THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN
    
28. PORTION OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS
    
29. ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON WIND REPORTS FROM ADELE
    
30. ISLAND AND THE CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
    
31. 
    
32. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
33. 
    
34. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    
35. POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST, OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA
    
36. 
    
37. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
38.    PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
    
39.    CIMSS D-MINT: 37 KTS AT 232250Z
    
40.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 38 KTS AT 240020Z
    
41. 
    
42. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
    
43.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
44.    SST: OVER LAND
    
45.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
    
46.    OTHER FACTORS: TERRAIN INTERACTION
    
47. 
    
48. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
49.    INITIAL POSITION: LOW
    
50.    INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
    
51.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
52. 
    
53. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
54. 
    
55. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
56. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
57. 
    
58. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 27P (NARELLE) WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
    
59. UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR CENTERED OVER AUSTRALIA
    
60. UNTIL TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, NARELLE WILL BEGIN TO TRACK ALONG THE
    
61. WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND ASSUME A SOUTHWARD TO
    
62. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 120 AS IT CONTINUES AROUND
    
63. THE RIDGE AXIS. NARELLE IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT
    
64. REEMERGES OVER WATER OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS, AND MOVES OVER KING
    
65. SOUND. ONCE THE CENTER PASSES OVER THE DAMPIER PENINSULA, THE RATE
    
66. OF INTENSIFICATION WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY WITHIN THE HIGHLY
    
67. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM
    
68. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 29 C TO 30 C, AND RAPIDLY IMPROVING
    
69. OUTFLOW ALOFT. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BETWEEN TAU
    
70. 24-48. 27P WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNTIL LANDFALL NORTHWEST OF
    
71. LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. THOUGH THE FORECAST GRAPHIC REFLECTS A MAXIMUM
    
72. INTENSITY OF 95 KTS, HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE TAU
    
73. 72-96 INTERVAL. AFTER 27P MAKES LANDFALL BETWEEN TAU 72-96, IT IS
    
74. EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE
    
75. TO TOPOGRAPHIC INTERACTION, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND HIGH VERTICAL
    
76. WIND SHEAR INDUCED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. 27P IS FORECASTED TO
    
77. BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AROUND TAU 96 WITH COMPLETION EXPECTED
    
78. BY TAU 120.
    
79. 
    
80. MODEL DISCUSSION: CROSS TRACK SPREAD AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE IS
    
81. UNDER 50 NM UNTIL TAU 72. A FEW OF THE MEMBERS STILL REFLECT A MORE
    
82. WESTWARD TURN AROUND THE STR AXIS, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE
    
83. STILL REFLECTS A TIGHTER TURN THAT BRINGS THE CENTER JUST NORTHWEST
    
84. OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA BEFORE LANDFALL. THE JTWC FORECASTED TRACK
    
85. IS PLACED EVER SO SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
    
86. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AFTER TAU 72 TRACK SPREAD INCREASES, RESULTING IN LOW
    
87. TRACK CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS SPREAD UP TO 45
    
88. KTS, WITH THE CONSENSUS REFLECTING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KTS. THE
    
89. JTWC FORECASTED INTENSITY REFLECTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES WITH MEDIUM
    
90. CONFIDENCE, TAKING RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE INTO ACCOUNT WITH
    
91. THE FORECASTED VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
    
92. 
    
93. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
94.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
95.    TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
    
96.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
97.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
    
98. NNNN

复制代码

桑美和伊欧凯

ygsj24 发表于 2026-3-24 10:20
WTXS31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P ( ...

陆地上也能保持TS，还是很强势的

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹越男  签发：许映龙  2026 年 03 月 24 日 10 时
“纳蕾勒”再次加强为热带气旋

时  间: 3月24日08时（北京时,下同）

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “纳蕾勒”，NARELLE

中心位置: 南纬15.2度，东经124.5度

强度等级: 一级热带气旋

最大风力: 8级，18米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压:  992百帕

参考位置:   距离澳大利亚西澳大利亚州布鲁姆东北方向约390公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“纳蕾勒”由7级加强至8级

预报结论: “纳蕾勒”将以每小时20公里左右的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度逐渐加强。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年3月24日08时00分）

pocketbox

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 53
Issued at 11:55 am WST on Tuesday 24 March 2026

Headline:
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone tonight and move roughly parallel to the Pilbara coast on Wednesday and Thursday. Gales possible from west of Bidyadanga on Wednesday morning.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Beagle Bay to Kuri Bay, and De Grey to Bidyadanga

Watch Zone
Exmouth to De Grey, including Exmouth, Onslow, Karratha and Port Hedland.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 11:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 15.4 degrees South 124.3 degrees East, estimated to be 25 kilometres west northwest of Kuri Bay and 360 kilometres northeast of Broome.

Movement: west at 19 kilometres per hour.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle is moving offshore of the west Kimberley coast and forecast to redevelop into a tropical cyclone tonight.

Narelle will continue moving to the west southwest, roughly parallel to the Pilbara coast during Wednesday and Thursday, and is forecast to reach severe (category 3) intensity Wednesday night. While Narelle is likely to be over waters well to the north of the Pilbara during Wednesday and Thursday, gales may extend to the Pilbara coast during this time.

On Friday Narelle is expected to turn south to southeast towards the WA west coast with impacts expected as far south as the Lower West on the weekend.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 90 km/h may develop today along the coast between Kuri Bay and Beagle Bay and gradually ease by Wednesday morning, as the system moves further away from the west Kimberley coast.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 100 km/h may develop along the coast between Bidyadanga and De Grey during Wednesday, especially if the system takes a track further south. Gales are forecast to extend further along the Pilbara coast during later Wednesday and Thursday morning, possibly reaching Exmouth Thursday afternoon.

Isolated HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING may occur across parts of the north and west Kimberley today.

Tides will be higher than normal between Port Hedland and North West Cape.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm AWST Tuesday 24 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	11 am March 24	tropical low	15.4S	124.3E	35
+6hr	5 pm March 24	tropical low	15.9S	123.2E	60
+12hr	11 pm March 24	1	16.2S	122.0E	80
+18hr	5 am March 25	1	16.7S	120.8E	85
+24hr	11 am March 25	2	17.2S	119.6E	80
+36hr	11 pm March 25	3	18.0S	117.4E	75
+48hr	11 am March 26	4	19.0S	115.2E	85
+60hr	11 pm March 26	4	20.2S	113.4E	105
+72hr	11 am March 27	4	22.1S	112.4E	135

pocketbox

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0717 UTC 24/03/2026
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Identifier: 34U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.7S
Longitude: 123.9E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (245 deg)
Speed of Movement: 9 knots (17 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Central Pressure: 991 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS STT D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  24/1200: 16.1S 122.8E:     030 (060):  040  (075):  989
+12:  24/1800: 16.5S 121.6E:     040 (080):  045  (085):  988
+18:  25/0000: 17.0S 120.3E:     045 (085):  050  (095):  986
+24:  25/0600: 17.5S 119.2E:     045 (080):  055  (100):  982
+36:  25/1800: 18.3S 117.0E:     040 (075):  075  (140):  964
+48:  26/0600: 19.3S 114.9E:     050 (090):  090  (165):  948
+60:  26/1800: 20.7S 113.3E:     060 (110):  100  (185):  942
+72:  27/0600: 22.8S 112.6E:     075 (140):  090  (165):  949
+96:  28/0600: 29.7S 115.4E:     125 (225):  050  (095):  978
+120: 29/0600: 36.7S 121.6E:     225 (415):  030  (055):  992
REMARKS:
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle has moved offshore of the northwest Kimberley
coast. Position is estimated using microwave and animated Vis imagery with
reasonable confidence. Deep convection is evident north of the centre.

Intensity 35 kn with gales estimated in northern quadrants assisted by OSCAT at
0330UTC.  

Dvorak analysis: DT=2.5 usng a curved band pattern with wrap of 0.4. No MET.
FT/CI=2.5. Objective guidance: (1-min means): DPRINT (2250UTC) 37 kn, DMINT
0454UTC 44 kn; and SATCON (0540UTC) 45 kn, (ADT unavailable).

Environmental conditions are mostly favourable for development - SSTs around 29
30  C persist along Narelle  s track off the Pilbara coast but reduce as
Narelle turns and tracks south past Exmouth, dropping below 26  C roughly south
of Shark Bay; strong equatorward outflow and upper divergence and deep
moisture.  An upper trough lies a long way to the southwest of Narelle, and may
assist Narelle's intensification as it gets closer. .  

Narelle is located on the northwest side of an upper anticyclone, under
easterly vertical wind shear (CIMSS analysis at 0600 UTC 15-20 knots). Narelle
forecast to remain in moderate shear in the next few days, however, NWP
guidance indicates that this will not significantly inhibiting intensification.
Redevelopment to a tropical cyclone is expected tonight with intensification is
expected to continue Wednesday and Thursday to category 4 intensity (100 kn).  

Narelle is following the northwest side of a mid-level anticyclone to the
south, tracking to the west southwest. By Friday the anticyclone moves further
east and an approaching upper trough aids in a more southerly then
southeasterly path. The most likely scenario is a track down the west coast.
Gradual weakening is then expected as the environment starts to become less
favourable, however Narelle may remain at severe TC intensity south to the
Shark Bay region and at cyclone intensity further south towards Perth. Although
the guidance is more confident for this type of scenario moving down the west
coast the timing does vary considerably.  

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/1330 UTC.

---

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 54
Issued at 2:53 pm WST on Tuesday 24 March 2026

Headline:
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone tonight and move roughly parallel to the Pilbara coast on Wednesday and Thursday.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
South of Beagle Bay to Kuri Bay, and Dampier to Bidyadanga, including Dampier, Karratha and Port Hedland.

Watch Zone
Exmouth to Dampier, including Exmouth and Onslow.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 2:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 15.7 degrees South 123.9 degrees East, estimated to be 70 kilometres west southwest of Kuri Bay and 305 kilometres northeast of Broome.

Movement: west southwest at 17 kilometres per hour.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle has moved offshore of the west Kimberley coast and forecast to redevelop into a tropical cyclone tonight.

Narelle will continue moving to the west southwest, roughly parallel to the Pilbara coast during Wednesday and Thursday, and is forecast to reach severe (category 3) intensity Wednesday night. While Narelle is likely to be over waters well to the north of the Pilbara during Wednesday and Thursday, gales may extend to the Pilbara coast during this time.

On Friday Narelle is expected to turn south to southeast towards the WA west coast with impacts expected as far south as the Lower West on the weekend.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 90 km/h may develop today along the coast between Cockatoo Island and Kuri Bay and extend to south of Beagle Bay overnight before gradually easing during Wednesday morning, as the system moves further away from the west Kimberley coast.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 100 km/h may develop along the coast between Bidyadanga and De Grey during Wednesday morning. Gales are forecast to extend further west along the Pilbara coast to Port Hedland and Karratha later Wednesday. GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h may develop west to Exmouth later Thursday.

Isolated HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING may occur across parts of the north and west Kimberley today.

Tides will be higher than normal between Port Hedland and North West Cape. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:

Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 pm AWST Tuesday 24 March.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 pm March 24	tropical low	15.7S	123.9E	35
+6hr	8 pm March 24	1	16.1S	122.8E	60
+12hr	2 am March 25	1	16.5S	121.6E	80
+18hr	8 am March 25	2	17.0S	120.3E	85
+24hr	2 pm March 25	2	17.5S	119.2E	80
+36hr	2 am March 26	3	18.3S	117.0E	75
+48hr	2 pm March 26	4	19.3S	114.9E	90
+60hr	2 am March 27	4	20.7S	113.3E	110
+72hr	2 pm March 27	4	22.8S	112.6E	140

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 026   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240600Z --- NEAR 16.0S 123.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 123.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 16.8S 121.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 17.6S 118.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 18.5S 116.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 19.6S 115.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 23.1S 113.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 28.5S 115.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 28 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 38.3S 122.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 122.8E.
24MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
133 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 240600Z IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 240900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING
   
4. NR
   
5. 026//
   
6. RMKS/
   
7. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
8. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
9. 
   
10. SUMMARY:
    
11.    INITIAL POSITION: 16.0S 123.4E
    
12.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
    
13.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 133 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BROOME,
    
14. AUSTRALIA
    
15.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 11 KTS
    
16.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET
    
17. 
    
18. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
19. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS
    
20. OF DEEP CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
    
21. CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27P (NARELLE) HAS
    
22. RECENTLY RE-EMERGED OVER WATER NORTHEAST OF THE DAMPIER PENINSULA,
    
23. AUSTRALIA. ROBUST WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS AIDING WITH
    
24. DEVELOPMENT AND OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID
    
25. INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE WARM
    
26. (29-30 C), VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS LOW (10-15 KTS) AND THERE IS
    
27. PLENTY OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AVAILABLE THROUGHOUT THE VERTICAL
    
28. COLUMN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
    
29. THE ANIMATED MSI AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 240502Z GW1 AMSR2 PASS. THE
    
30. INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED
    
31. ON THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
    
32. 
    
33. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 240502Z GW1 AMSR2 PASS
    
34. 
    
35. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    
36. POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA
    
37. 
    
38. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
39.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
40.    APRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
41.    CIMSS SATCON: 46 KTS AT 240543Z
    
42.    CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 240540Z
    
43.    CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 240540Z
    
44.    CIMSS D-MINT: 43 KTS AT 240544Z
    
45.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 37 KTS AT 240700Z
    
46. 
    
47. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
    
48.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
49.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
50.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE DUAL-CHANNEL
    
51. 
    
52. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
53.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
54.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
55.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
56. 
    
57. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
58. 
    
59. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
60. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
61. 
    
62. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 27P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG
    
63. THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR CENTERED OVER AUSTRALIA, WHILE
    
64. QUICKLY INTENSIFYING. PEAK WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 95-100
    
65. KTS BETWEEN TAUS 48 AND 72, JUST PRIOR TO THE SYSTEM BEGINNING TO
    
66. ROUND THE AXIS OF THE STR AND APPROACH NORTH WEST CAPE, WESTERN
    
67. AUSTRALIA. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS HIGHLY POSSIBLE AND EXPECTED,
    
68. DUE TO VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNTIL TAU 72. TC NARELLE IS
    
69. CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL WEST OR SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST OF
    
70. LEARMONTH, APPROACHING THE CORAL BAY AS IT EVENTUALLY ROUNDS THE
    
71. AXIS OF THE RIDGE AND STARTS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD SOON AFTER TAU
    
72. 72. AFTER THAT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL
    
73. EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION, INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND
    
74. RAPIDLY INCREASING VWS DRIVEN BY THE UPPER-LEVEL JET INTERACTION.
    
75. AROUND TAU 96, THE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BEGIN, WITH COMPLETION
    
76. EXPECTED PRIOR OR BY TAU 120.
    
77. 
    
78. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD
    
79. AGREEMENT, PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE INITIAL 72 HOURS. CROSS-TRACK
    
80. SPREAD AT TAU 48 IS 45 NM AND EXPANDS TO 75 NM JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
    
81. IMPACTS TO NORTH WEST CAPE AREA EXPECTED EVEN IF THE TRACK SHIFTS
    
82. SLIGHTLY WESTWARD AND LANDFALL WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
    
83. PENINSULA. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD EXPANDS TO 190 NM BY THE END OF THE
    
84. FORECAST PERIOD INDICATING SLIGHTLY INCREASED LONG-TERM TRACK
    
85. PREDICTION UNCERTAINTY. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY GUIDANCE, ALL MODELS ARE
    
86. IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO THE TIMELINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
    
87. INTENSIFICATION AND EVENTUAL LANDFALL AND WEAKENING, HOWEVER OFFICIAL
    
88. JTWC OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,
    
89. DUE TO THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY SPREAD OF 40 KTS. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
    
90. SHOWS PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KTS, WHILE HAFS AND GFS ARE MOST
    
91. CONSERVATIVE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 75-80 KTS AND GFS-DRIVEN COAMPS-TC,
    
92. RIDE AND COAMPS-TC RI AID PREDICTING PEAK OF 105-110 KTS. AS SUCH,
    
93. JTWC FORECAST IS LAID SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
    
94. WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
    
95. 
    
96. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
97.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
98.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
    
99.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
100.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
     
101. NNNN

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pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：张怡驰、曹越男  签发：许映龙  2026 年 03 月 24 日 18 时
“纳蕾勒”向西偏南方向移动

时  间: 3月24日14时（北京时,下同）

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “纳蕾勒”，NARELLE

中心位置: 南纬15.7度，东经123.9度

强度等级: 一级热带气旋

最大风力: 8级，18米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压:  991百帕

参考位置:   距离澳大利亚西澳大利亚州布鲁姆东北方向约300公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“纳蕾勒”由7级加强至8级

预报结论: “纳蕾勒”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度逐渐加强。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年3月24日14时00分）