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本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-3-23 23:30 编辑
WTXS31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 15.1S 126.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 126.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 15.8S 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 16.6S 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.4S 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 18.2S 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.4S 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 24.7S 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 29.9S 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 126.2E.
23MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
285 NM SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
231200Z IS 994 MB. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND
241500Z.//
NNNN
- WDXS31 PGTW 231500
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING
- NR 023//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 15.1S 126.8E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 285 NM SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: OVER LAND
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
- CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES ALONG
- THE KIMBERLEY COASTLINE. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS
- ANALYZED TO BE DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BULK OF
- CONVECTION. A 231229Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALED 25-30 KT WINDS TO
- THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER NEAR THE COAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
- PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED EIR, DUE TO A LACK
- OF MICROWAVE AND RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS
- ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OVERALL STRUCTURE AND
- THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
- CENTRAL AUSTRALIA
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 43 KTS AT 231200Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
- VWS: 10-15 KTS
- SST: OVER LAND
- OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
- OTHER FACTORS: TERRAIN INTERACTION
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: LOW
- INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
- INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 27P (NARELLE) CONTINUES ON A
- WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO
- THE SOUTH. IT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
- KIMBERLEY COAST THROUGH TAU 12 WHERE IT WILL REEMERGE OVER THE
- SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN, SOUTHEAST OF ADELE ISLAND. THE
- WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY CONTINUES THROUGH TAU 72, THEN THE
- SYSTEM BEGINS TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS INITIATING A POLEWARD TURN.
- TC NARELLE IS FORECAST TO SKIRT THE WESTERN AUSTRALIA COASTLINE,
- TRACKING JUST WEST OF THE EXMOUTH PENINSULA AND LEARMONTH AROUND
- TAU 84. AFTER THE TAU 86 INFLECTION POINT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
- SOUTHWARD AND ACCELERATE TOWARD GERALDTON ON A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
- THROUGH TAU 120. A FINAL LANDFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE
- VICINITY OF SHARK BAY AROUND TAU 96. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, TC
- NARELLE IS FORECAST TO MARGINALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
- AS IT CONTINUES TO SKIRT THE COAST. ONCE THE SYSTEM HAS SUFFICIENT
- DISTANCE FROM LAND, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE AND
- SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT. A STEADY RATE OF INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR
- BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 48, THEN A RAPID RATE OF INTENSIFICATION IS
- FORECAST TO OCCUR THROUGH TAU 72 IN RESPONSE TO VERY LOW VERTICAL
- WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A PEAK INTENSITY OF
- 100-105 KTS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72, WHICH IS NOT
- DIRECTLY CAPTURED BY THE CURRENT WARNING. AFTERWARD, COOLING SEA
- SURFACE TEMPERATURES, INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND DRY
- AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND EVENTUAL LANDFALL WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
- THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC NARELLE IS FORECAST
- TO BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AT TAU 96, WHERE IT BEGINS TO INTERACT
- WITH MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY WINDS AND CROSSES THE 26 C SST ISOTHERM.
- SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU 120 AS THE
- SYSTEM ACCELERATES SOUTHEASTWARD.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
- THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 90 NM AND MINIMAL
- ALONG-TRACK SPREAD. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER TAU 48 WITH
- CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASING TO 190 NM AT TAU 72. THE CROSS-TRACK
- SPREAD RAPIDLY WIDENS AFTER TAU 72 WITH AI MODELS MAINTAINING A
- SHARPER TURN AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS WHILE THE PHYSICS-BASED MODELS
- DEPICT A WIDER TURN. THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODEL IS THE WESTERNMOST
- SOLUTION AND THE EC-AIFS COMPRISES THE EASTERNMOST. AFTER TAU 96 THE
- MODELS ARE IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK SPEED, WITH THE EC-
- AIFS AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN ACCELERATING THE VORTEX WELL TO
- THE SOUTHEAST OF PERTH AT TAU 120. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE GFS AND
- ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE SOME 300 NM NORTH OF PERTH, CREATING AN
- ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF 670 NM. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS
- THE TES1 CONSENSUS (WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE AI MODELS) THROUGH TAU 96.
- THE TAU 120 POSITION IS PLACED WITH EXTREMELY LOW CONFIDENCE -
- SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS. MODEL INTENSITY
- GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST RUN. THE
- MODELS AGREE ON GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24 FOLLOWED BY
- RAPID REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH TAU 72. PEAK INTENSITIES RANGE FROM 80-105
- KTS WITH COAMPS-TC (GFS BASED) BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. MODELS ALSO
- AGREE ON STEADY WEAKENING AFTER TAU 72. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
- PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 48 THEN CLOSER TO
- THE COAMPS-TC SOLUTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
- TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
- NNNN
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楼主: Ragasa
发表于 2026-3-23 11:58
