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本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2026-3-23 12:00 编辑
WTXS31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 14.5S 129.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 129.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 15.1S 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 15.7S 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 16.5S 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.3S 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 19.2S 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 22.2S 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 26.0S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 128.6E.
23MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
156 NM SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 230000Z IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.//
NNNN
- WDXS31 PGTW 230300
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING
- NR 021//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 14.5S 129.2E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 156 NM SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
- WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION BRIEFLY TRANSITING OVER THE JOSEPH
- BONAPARTE GULF, WITH SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN
- FLANK AND ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL EQUATORWARD EXHAUST. AS THE CIRCULATION
- TRAVERSES OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE GULF, THE SYSTEM IS
- BEGINNING TO EXHIBIT SIGNS OF SLIGHT DEVELOPMENT, EVIDENCED BY
- DEEPENING CLOUDS. A FORTUITOUS 222357Z ASCAT PASS MEASURED LOW-END
- GALES OVER THE GULF WATERS, NEAR THE CONVECTIVE BAND, AND OUTLINED A
- RATHER LARGE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE ASCAT PASS, A 222052Z RCM-2 SAR
- PASS, AND PGTW DVORAK FIX SUPPORT BOTH THE INITIAL POSITION AND
- INTENSITY OF 35 KTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
- CENTRAL AUSTRALIA
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
- CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 0020Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 0020Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 30 KTS AT 0020Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
- UNFAVORABLE
- VWS: 15-20 KTS
- SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
- INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
- INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 27P IS BEING STEERED TOWARDS THE
- WEST-SOUTHWEST BY A STRONG, DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL
- AUSTRALIA. THE RIDGE EXTENDS TOWARDS THE NW, WHICH SHOULD HOLD THE
- STORM MOTION THROUGH TAU 72. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
- NORTHWESTERN TIP OF AUSTRALIA, THE EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN
- AND ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL TURN POLEWARD. THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
- WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE EXTENSION AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE CENTER OF
- THE ANTICYCLONE WILL GREATLY AFFECT THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF
- POLEWARD TURN. AFTER PASSING NEAR THE EXMOUTH COAST, TC 27P WILL
- ACCELERATE TOWARDS GERALDTON. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
- STRAIGHTFORWARD FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM MAY BRIEFLY
- INTENSIFY TO 40 KTS THROUGH TAU 12 AS IT TRACKS OVER THE WARM WATERS
- OF THE JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF, THOUGH THIS IS NOT CAPTURED EXPLICITLY
- IN THE FORECAST. IT SHOULD EMERGE OVER THE EXCEPTIONALLY WARM WATERS
- OF 30-31 DEGREES CELSIUS OF THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN BETWEEN TAU 24 AND
- TAU 36, AT WHICH TIME THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A VERY SIGNIFICANT PHASE
- OF INTENSIFICATION. THE BROAD CIRCULATION WILL INITIALLY INTENSIFY AT
- A STEADY RATE AS IT BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND FORMS A DEEP INNER
- CORE. RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) IS EXPLICITLY FORECAST AFTER TAU 48
- DUE TO THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONSISTING OF
- VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
- PLENTIFUL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, PEAKING
- NEAR 105 KTS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE EXTENSIVE IN SIZE WHEN IT
- MAKES A VERY CLOSE APPROACH TO LEARMONTH. WHILE THE CPA WILL
- FLUCTUATE BETWEEN FORECASTS, CPA MAY END UP NOT BEING THE MOST
- IMPORTANT FACTOR BECAUSE LEARMONTH IS FORECAST TO BE WELL WITHIN THE
- GALE- AND STORM-FORCE WIND RADII, LENDING TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF
- DESTRUCTIVE WINDS. AFTER IT TURNS POLEWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY
- WEAKEN AS THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROPS.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
- 48, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF LESS THAN 100 NM. THE SPREAD
- INCREASES TO 400 NM AT TAU 96, WITH THE DETERMINISTIC AND
- PHYSICS-BASED MODELS PREFERRING A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK. THE AI
- MODELS CONTINUE TO TURN THE SYSTEM INLAND SOONER AND AS FAR EASTWARD
- AS DAMPIER. BOTH GROUPINGS HAVE CONVERGED SLIGHTLY, SO THE FORECAST
- TRACK IS HEDGED TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS (TES1), WHICH ACCOUNTS
- FOR THE AI MODELS, AND IS PLACED CLOSER TO THE EXMOUTH COAST THAN THE
- PHYICS-BASED MODELS. ALL MODELS HOLD THE INTENSITY AT LOW-END
- TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24. ALL MODELS DEPICT
- SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 24. IN FACT, THE GOOGLE
- DEEPMIND AND COAMPS-TC MODELS SHOWCASE AN 80-90 PERCENT PROBABILITY
- OF RI AND A PEAK AT 105-110 KTS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SET CLOSE
- TO THE CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 24 AND THEN FOLLOWS THE MORE RAPID
- INCREASE OF THESE TWO MODELS. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSIFICATION
- RATE AND PEAK STILL EXIST GIVEN THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE BROADER IN
- SIZE AND THE MODEL TRACK SPREAD FROM TAU 48 TO TAU 96 IS QUITE WIDE.
- ALL MODELS DEPICT STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING BY TAU 120 DUE TO MUCH
- COOLER WATERS.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
- TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
- NNNN
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楼主: Ragasa
发表于 2026-3-22 17:15
