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本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2026-3-22 06:00 编辑
WTPS31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 13.6S 135.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 135.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 14.1S 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 14.5S 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 15.0S 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 15.5S 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 16.7S 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.4S 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 20.9S 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 135.1E.
21MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
288 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 211800Z IS 978 MB. NEXT WARNINGS AT
220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.//
NNNN
- WDPS31 PGTW 212100
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WARNING
- NR 016//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 13.6S 135.7E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 288 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: OVER LAND
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) AND SHORTWAVE INFRARED (SWIR)
- SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM MOVING INLAND
- WEST OF GROOTE EYLANDT. TC 27P MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST
- OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, SOUTH OF GOVE, AUSTRALIA, AT
- APPROXIMATELY 211400Z BASED ON RADAR ANALYSIS. AT THE TIME OF
- LANDFALL, THE EIR AND RADAR DATA INDICATED A WELL-DEFINED EYE
- FEATURE AND AN EARLIER SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR (SAR) PASS REVEALED
- AN AVERAGE VMAX OF 90 KNOTS. LANDFALL INTENSITY WAS THUS SET AT 85
- KNOTS. SUBSEQUENT TO LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM MADE A SLIGHT
- SOUTHWESTWARD JOG BUT HAS SINCE LEVELED OUT ONTO A MORE WESTWARD
- TRAJECTORY. THE OVERALL DEPICTION IN ANIMATED EIR AND SWIR, AS WELL
- AS THE RADAR DATA, HAVE RAPIDLY DETERIORATED AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES
- FURTHER INLAND AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE TOPOGRAPHY. THE
- INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
- RADAR ANALYSIS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
- CONFIDENCE, BASED ON AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
- ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONSIDERED AS UNFAVORABLE DUE TO THE
- SYSTEM BEING OVER LAND.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER
- SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
- ADRM: T4.0 - 65 KTS
- CIMSS SATCON: 80 KTS AT 211607Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 81 KTS AT 211600Z
- CIMSS D-MINT: 75 KTS AT 211608Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 68 KTS AT 211800Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
- VWS: 10-15 KTS
- SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
- OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT; LAND INTERACTION.
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
- INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
- INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27P IS FORECAST TO
- CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
- OF THE DEEP STR OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE
- TRACK WILL TAKE THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE TOP END, WELL SOUTH OF DARWIN
- OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN QUICKLY CROSS THE JOSEPH BONAPARTE
- GULF BY TAU 36. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE INDIAN
- OCEAN, PASSING NEAR ADELE ISLAND, AROUND TAU 60, THEN PASS NORTH OF
- BROOME BY TAU 72. AT THIS POINT, THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES MORE
- UNCERTAIN AS THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING RIDGE WILL PLAY AN
- OUTSIZE ROLE IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK. THE GFS SHOWS A FLATTER, MORE
- EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE ANCHORED FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST, WHILE
- THE ECMWF DEPICTS A MORE SYMMETRICAL RIDGE POSITIONED FURTHER EAST
- AND A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR LEARMONTH. BOTH MODELS HAVE
- INITIALIZED VERY SIMILARLY, SO DETERMINING WHICH WILL PROVE MORE
- ACCURATE AFTER TAU 72 IS CURRENTLY UNRESOLVABLE. THE CURRENT
- FORECAST IS PLACED CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, TAKING
- THE CENTER APPROXIMATELY 100NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH BY TAU
- 120. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST, THE SYSTEM WILL REACH THE
- INFLECTION POINT AT WHICH IT WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND
- TURN POLEWARD, THE ONLY QUESTION BEING HOW FAR OFFSHORE WILL THE
- STARTING POINT BE. REGARDING INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY
- WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER LAND, DOWN TO 30-35 KNOTS, THEN
- MAINTAIN THAT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 48 AS IT PASSES OVER SATURATED
- SOILS AND BRIEFLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BONAPARTE GULF.
- AFTER EMERGING OVER THE WARM INDIAN OCEAN WATERS, THE SYSTEM WILL
- QUICKLY RECONSOLIDATE AND BEGIN TO INTENSIFY, INCREASING UP TO 75
- KNOTS BY TAU 96. BY THAT POINT THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE ACHIEVED
- AXISYMMETRIZATION, AND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT
- OPTIMIZED FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI), WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
- BEGIN NO LATER THAN TAU 06. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC
- 27P IS FORECAST TO ACHIEVE A PEAK INTENSITY OF AT LEAST 115 KNOTS.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: THE CONSENSUS PACKAGE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH
- MINIMAL (80NM) CROSS-TRACK SPREAD THROUGH TAU 72, AND THE JTWC
- FORECAST IS POSITIONED NEAR THE CONSENSUS MEAN WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
- THROUGH THIS POINT. THE MODELS HAVE MAINTAINED A CONSISTENT PATTERN
- OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, WITH THE AI MODELS (EC-AIFS, GDM FNV3 AND
- THE AI CONSENSUS) BEGINNING TO DEVIATE FROM THE REMAINDER OF THE
- CONSENSUS TRACKERS AT TAU 72 AND TURNING THE SYSTEM POLEWARD MORE
- SHARPLY, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES ALONG A
- WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. IF ANYTHING, THE TREND HAS INCREASED
- WITH THIS RUN, AS THE AI MEMBERS NOW DEPICT A LANDFALL AS FAR EAST
- AS DAMPIER, THEN TRACK THE SYSTEM WELL INLAND TO THE EAST OF
- LEARMONTH. HOWEVER, THE UKMET AND GALWEM HAVE NOW SHIFTED
- SIGNIFICANTLY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE AI MODELS, THOUGH EVERY OTHER
- MODEL (GFS, ECMWF, THE ENSEMBLE MEANS, ETC.) REMAIN FIRMLY
- ENTRENCHED ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, WELL OFFSHORE TO THE NORTHWEST
- OF LEARMONTH. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO 350NM BY TAU 120,
- BETWEEN THE ECMWF ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE AND THE EC-AIFS ON THE
- SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE. THE JTWC TRACK FROM TAU 72
- ONWARDS IS PLACED NEAR THE UPDATED CONSENSUS (TES1) AND THE
- GALWEM-UKMET COMBO, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
- IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL TREND, SUPPORTING RAPID WEAKENING
- TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BY TAU 24, AND THEN RI AFTER TAU
- 72. THE PEAK INTENSITY IN THE LONG-RANGE FORECAST RANGES BETWEEN
- 105-140 KNOTS. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE ECWMF AND
- COAMPS-TC SOLUTIONS, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
- TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
- NNNN
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楼主: Ragasa
发表于 2026-3-21 23:50
