TCFA - 瓦努阿图附近热带扰动07F(17U/90P) - 14.0S 168.8E

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 00Z分析T1.0

TXPS29 KNES 270046
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90P)
B.  26/2330Z
C.  14.0S
D.  168.2E
E.  FIVE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T1.0/1.0
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...>2/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. THE MET AND PT ARE
1.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...GATLING

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 03Z分析T1.5

TPPS11 PGTW 270253
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90P (NE OF VANUATU)
B. 27/0230Z
C. 14.10S
D. 169.35E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. BOTH MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   26/2145Z  13.52S  167.93E  MMHS
   LINDGREN

红豆棒冰冰

ABPW10 PGTW 270600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/270600Z-280600ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270221ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
18.2S 160.6W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.3S 159.4W, APPROXIMATELY 492 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BORA BORA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL VISUAL IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED AND MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) SHOOTING OFF TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. DEEP FLARING
CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO AN AREA OF MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WITH INCREASED VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (20-25KTS), AND POOR OUTFLOW ALOFT.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE SUPPORTIVE (27-29C).  GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM KICKING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND EDDYING
SOUTHEAST OF INVEST 90P, WHICH IS BEGINNING TO HOG THE ENERGY IN THE
SPCZ AND DEEPEN.  AS THE CIRCULATION UPSTREAM DEVELOPS, INVEST 94P IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A TRACKABLE CIRCULATION BUT NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.0S 168.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 168.8E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL VISUAL IMAGERY
(MSI) AS WELL AS A 262145Z METOP-C MHS 89V MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT
INVEST 90P COALESCING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
OVERSHOOTING TOPS ARE OBSERVED IN THE CURVED FORMATIVE BANDING ON THE
NORTHEAST PERIMETER, AND CONVECTION IS DEEPENING NEAR THE LLCC. A
262149Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL CIRCULATION WITH 15-
20KT WINDS PRIMARILY RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER A BELT OF LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
(5-10KTS) WITH DECENT OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND STEADY
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS BENEFITTING FROM
GRADIENT LEVEL VORTICITY SUPPLIED BY EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED
WITH A MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION PULSE THAT IS MOVING TOWARDS THE
DATELINE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 270230) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 06Z分析维持T1.5，SSD分析升至T1.5

TPPS11 PGTW 270612
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90P (NW OF FIJI)
B. 27/0530Z
C. 14.23S
D. 169.53E
E. SIX/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. BOTH MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   LINDGREN

TXPS29 KNES 270613
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90P)
B.  27/0530Z
C.  14.2S
D.  169.3E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T1.5/1.5
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...3/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. THE MET IS 1.0 BASED
ON A STEADY 24 HOUR TREND. THE PT IS 1.5. THE THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT
DUE TO IRREGULAR CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...MONAGHAN

pocketbox

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 270808 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD07F CENTER [999HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 14.0S
169.9E AT 270600UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI 9 VIS/IR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD07F MOVING EAST AT
05 KNOTS.

POCKETS OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION EAST OF THE SUPPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATING CENTER. ORGANISATION SLIGHTLY IMPROVED IN THE LAST 24
HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A
GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST
AROUND IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS VERY LOW.

*********************************************************************
******
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 09Z分析维持T1.5

TPPS11 PGTW 270859
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90P (NW OF FIJI)
B. 27/0830Z
C. 14.61S
D. 169.56E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/18HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. BOTH MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   LINDGREN

pocketbox

Tropical Low 20U
Tropical low 20U is likely to approach Norfolk Island during Thursday and Friday.

• Tropical Low 20U is located just to the northeast of Vanuatu and is slowly developing.
• During Wednesday, the system is expected to move generally southwards in a favourable environment and currently has a Moderate chance of developing into a tropical cyclone to the west of Fiji.
• On Thursday, there is good confidence that 20U will track southwest towards Norfolk Island. However, environmental conditions are forecast to become less favourable, and the likelihood of the system being a tropical cyclone is expected to decrease to Low late Thursday.
• Residents of Norfolk Island should monitor forecast updates.
  

Last updated
an hour ago, 09:26 am UTC

Tropical lows

Today 12:00 pm

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Thu 29  Jan 12:00 am

Thu 29  Jan 12:00 pm

Fri 30  Jan 12:00 am

Fri 30  Jan 12:00 pm

Sat 31  Jan 12:00 am

Sat 31  Jan 12:00 pm

Sun 1  Feb 12:00 am

Sun 1  Feb 12:00 pm

Mon 2  Feb 12:00 am

Mon 2  Feb 12:00 pm

Tue 3  Feb 12:00 am

Tue 3  Feb 12:00 pm

Tropical Low 20U

1 (Very Low)

25 (Moderate)

35 (Moderate)

40 (Moderate)

5 (Low)

5 (Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 12Z分析维持T1.5

TPPS11 PGTW 271154
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90P (NW OF FIJI)
B. 27/1130Z
C. 14.33S
D. 169.18E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/21HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED NEAR COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.5. MET AGREES. PT
YIELDS 1.0 DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   PETERSEN

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 12Z分析亦维持T1.5

TXPS29 KNES 271234
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90P)
B.  27/1130Z
C.  14.3S
D.  169.8E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T1.5/1.5
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...4/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. THE MET IS 1.0 BASED
ON DEVELOPING TREND AND THE PT IS 1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO
PULSING CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...EVANS