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南半球各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2025年7月－2026年6月）

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发表于 2025-7-1 00:00 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
1、为了方便管理和页面整洁，台风论坛继续坚持一扰动一追击帖的老规矩，在南半球无扰动下请在本帖跟帖讨论。违者：合并或删除。
2、当NRL升格扰动后，会员可重新开新的追击。
3、因EC网站更新，本帖无法提供即时更新的EC预报产品，请前往各数值产品服务网站查询。
4、南半球各海域监管机构
【MFR】http://www.meteofrance.re/cyclone/activite-cyclonique-en-cours
法国气象局MFR主管90E以西的南印度洋。
【BoM】http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/
澳大利亚气象局BoM主管澳洲附近海域。
【FMS】https://www.met.gov.fj/
斐济气象局FMS主管西南太平洋大部。
【MetService】https://www.metservice.com/national
新西兰气象局MetService主管部分南太平洋海域。



各范围红外光卫星云图：
印度洋


太平洋

涡度图




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发表于 2025-7-1 22:59 | 显示全部楼层
AWIO20 FMEE 011037
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 01/07/2025 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY
Nil.
PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
The basin is in a winter pattern. Deep convection is low over the bassin.
Development of a tropical storm is not expected over the next 5 days.

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惟愿公平如滚滚流水，而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2025-11-12 09:10 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Low 02U
Tropical low (02U) to develop early next week in the Timor Sea.
  • A tropical low may form to the south of the Indonesia during the weekend and move into the Timor Sea on Monday next week.
  • It is likely to become slow moving in the Timor Sea for most of next week, where environmental conditions are supportive for significant development.
  • The risk of 02U to develop into a tropical cyclone increases to Low on Monday, with increasing chance of development mid to late next week.
Last updated
an hour ago, 11:42 pm UTC

Tropical lowsToday 12:00 pm Tomorrow 12:00 am Tomorrow 12:00 pm Fri 14  Nov 12:00 am Fri 14  Nov 12:00 pm Sat 15  Nov 12:00 am Sat 15  Nov 12:00 pm Sun 16  Nov 12:00 am Sun 16  Nov 12:00 pm Mon 17  Nov 12:00 am Mon 17  Nov 12:00 pm Tue 18  Nov 12:00 am Tue 18  Nov 12:00 pm Wed 19  Nov 12:00 am
Tropical Low 02U null (None) null (None) null (None) null (None) null (None) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 5 (Low) 10 (Low) 10 (Low) 10 (Low) 15 (Low)

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发表于 2025-12-2 08:45 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Low 03U
Potential low forming in Timor Sea region early next week.
  • A tropical low (03U) may form in the Timor Sea early next week.
  • Environmental conditions in the Timor Sea region are favourable for development should a low form in the area.
  • Model guidance indicates in tropical system forming in the area may move southwestwards, off the Kimberley or northwest coast of Top End.
Last updated
2 hours ago, 11:06 pm UTC

Tropical lowsToday 12:00 pm Tomorrow 12:00 am Tomorrow 12:00 pm Thu 4  Dec 12:00 am Thu 4  Dec 12:00 pm Fri 5  Dec 12:00 am Fri 5  Dec 12:00 pm Sat 6  Dec 12:00 am Sat 6  Dec 12:00 pm Sun 7  Dec 12:00 am Sun 7  Dec 12:00 pm Mon 8  Dec 12:00 am Mon 8  Dec 12:00 pm Tue 9  Dec 12:00 am
Tropical Low 03U null (None) null (None) null (None) null (None) null (None) null (None) null (None) null (None) null (None) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 10 (Low) 10 (Low) 10 (Low)

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发表于 2025-12-5 09:15 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Low 03U
Potential low (03U) forming well north of WA during next week.
  • Some model guidance indicates that a tropical low (03U) may form near Indonesia during next week.
  • Should a low form, the environmental conditions are generally favourable for development. The likelihood of a tropical cyclone forming increases to Low from Thursday onwards.
  • If 03U forms, the most likely movement is to the west southwest, remaining well to the northwest of the Kimberley coast.
Last updated
an hour ago, 12:05 am UTC

Tropical lowsToday 11:00 pm Tomorrow 11:00 am Tomorrow 11:00 pm Sun 7  Dec 11:00 am Sun 7  Dec 11:00 pm Mon 8  Dec 11:00 am Mon 8  Dec 11:00 pm Tue 9  Dec 11:00 am Tue 9  Dec 11:00 pm Wed 10  Dec 11:00 am Wed 10  Dec 11:00 pm Thu 11  Dec 11:00 am Thu 11  Dec 11:00 pm Fri 12  Dec 11:00 am
Tropical Low 03U null (None) null (None) null (None) null (None) null (None) null (None) null (None) null (None) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 5 (Low) 5 (Low) 10 (Low)

Tropical Low 04U
Potential tropical low developing in the eastern PNG or Solomon Islands region later next week.
  • A tropical low (04U), may form during next week in the vicinity of the eastern PNG region or in the Solomon Sea.
  • At this range there are mixed indications for potential development into a tropical cyclone. The risk increases to 'Low' 10% for next Thursday and Friday.
  • The likely movement is to the southeast away from Australia. This system does not pose any threat to the Australian mainland or offshore islands.
Last updated
an hour ago, 12:04 am UTC

Tropical lowsToday 11:00 pm Tomorrow 11:00 am Tomorrow 11:00 pm Sun 7  Dec 11:00 am Sun 7  Dec 11:00 pm Mon 8  Dec 11:00 am Mon 8  Dec 11:00 pm Tue 9  Dec 11:00 am Tue 9  Dec 11:00 pm Wed 10  Dec 11:00 am Wed 10  Dec 11:00 pm Thu 11  Dec 11:00 am Thu 11  Dec 11:00 pm Fri 12  Dec 11:00 am
Tropical Low 04U null (None) null (None) null (None) null (None) null (None) null (None) null (None) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 5 (Low) 10 (Low) 10 (Low)

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发表于 2025-12-6 17:35 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Low 03U
Potential low (03U) may form near Timor region during next week and move north of WA coast.
  • Some model guidance indicates that a tropical low (03U) may form in the Timor region during next week.
  • Should a low form, the environmental conditions are generally favourable for development. The likelihood of a tropical cyclone forming increases to Low from Thursday onwards.
  • If 03U forms, the most likely movement is to the west southwest initially and then to the south southwest by next weekend remaining to the north of the WA coast next week.
Last updated
an hour ago, 08:20 am UTC

Tropical lowsToday 11:00 pm Tomorrow 11:00 am Tomorrow 11:00 pm Mon 8  Dec 11:00 am Mon 8  Dec 11:00 pm Tue 9  Dec 11:00 am Tue 9  Dec 11:00 pm Wed 10  Dec 11:00 am Wed 10  Dec 11:00 pm Thu 11  Dec 11:00 am Thu 11  Dec 11:00 pm Fri 12  Dec 11:00 am Fri 12  Dec 11:00 pm Sat 13  Dec 11:00 am Sat 13  Dec 11:00 pm
Tropical Low 03U null (None) null (None) null (None) null (None) null (None) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 5 (Low) 10 (Low) 10 (Low) 15 (Low) 15 (Low) 15 (Low)
Tropical Low 04U
Potential tropical low developing in the Solomon Islands region later next week.
  • A tropical low (04U) may form during next week in the vicinity of the Solomon Islands region.
  • The risk of 04U developing into a tropical cyclone increases to Low (5-15%) from Thursday onwards.
  • 04U is likely to move south-eastwards, away from the Australian coast.
  • The system does not pose any threat to the Australian mainland or offshore islands.
Last updated
42 minutes ago, 08:48 am UTC

Tropical lowsToday 11:00 pm Tomorrow 11:00 am Tomorrow 11:00 pm Mon 8  Dec 11:00 am Mon 8  Dec 11:00 pm Tue 9  Dec 11:00 am Tue 9  Dec 11:00 pm Wed 10  Dec 11:00 am Wed 10  Dec 11:00 pm Thu 11  Dec 11:00 am Thu 11  Dec 11:00 pm Fri 12  Dec 11:00 am Fri 12  Dec 11:00 pm Sat 13  Dec 11:00 am Sat 13  Dec 11:00 pm
Tropical Low 04U null (None) null (None) null (None) null (None) null (None) null (None) null (None) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 5 (Low) 10 (Low) 10 (Low) 10 (Low) 15 (Low)
Tropical Low 05U
Potential tropical low in the Indian Ocean forming north of Cocos Islands next week.
  • A tropical low may form in the Indian Ocean north of Cocos Islands from mid next week.
  • The likelihood of 05U developing into a tropical cyclone increases to Low (5-15%) from next Thursday.
  • The low is likely to be slow moving but have a general southerly trend and may move into the Australian region north of Cocos Island next weekend.
Last updated
an hour ago, 08:35 am UTC

Tropical lowsToday 11:00 pm Tomorrow 11:00 am Tomorrow 11:00 pm Mon 8  Dec 11:00 am Mon 8  Dec 11:00 pm Tue 9  Dec 11:00 am Tue 9  Dec 11:00 pm Wed 10  Dec 11:00 am Wed 10  Dec 11:00 pm Thu 11  Dec 11:00 am Thu 11  Dec 11:00 pm Fri 12  Dec 11:00 am Fri 12  Dec 11:00 pm Sat 13  Dec 11:00 am Sat 13  Dec 11:00 pm
Tropical Low 05U null (None) null (None) null (None) null (None) null (None) null (None) null (None) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 5 (Low) 5 (Low) 10 (Low) 10 (Low) 15 (Low) 15 (Low)

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